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Thread: Pandemic Planning

  1. #1

    Default Pandemic Planning

    So there may not be enough masks (nor vaccines) to go around when the next pandemic hits. (Until production ramps up and distribution is set up.)

    So why not make masks part of the Fire Code - every business would have to have a store of them (say have 20-30 with every fire extinguisher/hose). They'd help in an actual fire, but they'd also be available when the next pandemic hits. (Seems like a cheap fix to buy a few days time.)

  2. #2
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    Default RE: Pandemic

    I think your idea to store masks in public places is a bit short sighted. To have utility, masks are not a one size fits all, they are fitted to facial features. In a pandemic, people will NOT be in public places. There will be drastically reduced public gathering except for essential services. I would think that masks beside a fire extinguisher would merely add a propellant factor in the incendiary process, and they will be useless in a fire! We do not want people hanging around to get a mask, and a false sense of security in a fire. We want them OUT of the building by the nearest exit. Further, 20 or 30 masks as you suggest at each fire extinguisher... in a building with thousands of people...well think about it. Fire extinguisher sites are intended for one or two people....not a crowd.
    IN a pandemic you would be better off posting a message around the office, in malls, churches, and places of public gatherings: If you, or a family member are ill STAY AT HOME! Flu vaccines are provided annually in clinics around the province and country. Yet very few people avail themselves of the service, yet this can confer a significant level of protection. The vaccine is developed annually, taking into consideration the probability of the three most virulent stains that might present themselves in any given year.. They do have some crossover protection for other strains, but this does not mean that you will not contract the flu.., or some other viral illness. It means that your body will have learned some resistance should the pandemic hit...and that the more virulent pandemic strains will hopefully reduce severe morbidity or mortality.
    Before we think about "masks for all" as a crisis intervention....how about simple every day practices such as hand washing? Or the new recommendation that people should cough into their sleeve rather than into their hands? Just today I was to a restaurant in South Common, and the young lady taking me to my table coughed into the MENU . O.K., now her potential influenza virus is on the menu that-who-knows-how-many-people are going to handle!!!!
    Non-Latex gloves are another problematic area. People put these on to prevent the transmission of disease, yet really use them so they will not have to wash their hands. The gloves become a second layer of skin, exposed to all the same germs that skin is exposed to. THEY NEED TO BE CHANGED WHEN THEY BECOME CONTAMINATED! If you wipe your face, or brush your long hair out of your eyes, or scratch a pimple, those germs are now going to be transmitted to everything you touch...including someone's submarine sandwich, or toast, or whatever.
    Alberta Health Services Edmonton Area has an emergency planning website. This includes a list of items each household should have for emergency preparedness. These basic measures, managed in a proactive fashion, will prove far more important when a pandemic of Tsunami-like proportions befalls us. The effects will be worldwide, and the aftermath tragic. Masks for the general population will not be the tipping point.

    EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS WEBSITE
    http://www.capitalhealth.ca/Especial...ts/default.htm

    EMERGENCY PLANNING CHECKLIST
    http://www.capitalhealth.ca/nr/rdonl...gchecklist.pdf

    PANDEMIC TRIAGE, THE REALITY.
    "Development of a triage protocol for critical care during an influenza pandemic"
    Canadian Medical Association Journal.
    http://www.cmaj.ca/cgi/content/full/175/11/1377

    A well fitted, approved mask is a tool, particularly for health professionals who will be dealing with the sickest of the sick for hours at a time.
    For the rest of the population, there are far more important considerations to attend to---NOW.

  3. #3

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    I am guessing masks won't be a bit part of the solution if it ever happens. It will more be on the lines of working from home, using the alchohol hand cleaners you see everywhere now, etc.

  4. #4

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    Excellent points. However, what businesses can afford to shut down for 6 months?

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Excellent points. However, what businesses can afford to shut down for 6 months?
    The pandemic will come and go within weeks. Flu season occurs ever year, travels from east to west, and runs its main course between November and March. As for businesses, there will likely be no choice but to shut down. The Medical Officer of Health may dictate it, or businesses will have to shut down because the majority of their staff are ill. It has been suggested that over 30% of the workforce will be ill...and then there will be those people who will voluntarily stay home for fear of contracting the illness (sounds good to me). There will be great losses to be sure, not only in human life, but monetarily as well. If you look at pandemic planning material, there is discussion on how to manage the large numbers of corpses. I am not a fatalist, but rather a pragmatist. It will be what it will be..so I must consider what I can do to reduce the risk for myself, and my circle of influence.

  6. #6

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    Are there only flue pandemics or can something else cause a pandemic?

    I'd love to see some of the detailed scenarios that have been developed. Like the current financial turmoil, it seems that though there were a number of highly respected people openly warning about systemic breakdowns, their warnings weren't incorporated into any plans.

    I'd wonder it people would quickly clear stores of all their produce, would food distribution grind to a halt, what are considered essential businesses (or what are considered non-essential businesses), would gas stations stay open...

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by femenigma View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Excellent points. However, what businesses can afford to shut down for 6 months?
    The pandemic will come and go within weeks. Flu season occurs ever year, travels from east to west, and runs its main course between November and March. As for businesses, there will likely be no choice but to shut down. The Medical Officer of Health may dictate it, or businesses will have to shut down because the majority of their staff are ill. It has been suggested that over 30% of the workforce will be ill...and then there will be those people who will voluntarily stay home for fear of contracting the illness (sounds good to me). There will be great losses to be sure, not only in human life, but monetarily as well. If you look at pandemic planning material, there is discussion on how to manage the large numbers of corpses. I am not a fatalist, but rather a pragmatist. It will be what it will be..so I must consider what I can do to reduce the risk for myself, and my circle of influence.
    Yes, we should take the Katrina response as our cue (for rare but predictable events). Anyway, since the risk of a spreading flu is in the news again with the Mexican deaths and risk posed by what's possibly swine flu, I'm wondering if people are thinking about what courses of action things might take.

    Just as when I started this thread, my worry is that a pandemic might create unnecessary shortages and supply bottlenecks of key products because of a sudden, but of course very predictable demand with coincident supply chain failures. 'Naturally', the rich countries get the goods (food, fuel, vaccines, masks, cleaning supplies, bleach, oxygen, etc.) and the poor countries perish.

    Actually, maybe I spoke to broadly. Say with surgical masks - these days I wouldn't be surprised if they are all made in China or somewhere so if the proper filter material starts to run short I could see them stopping or limiting exports to supply their own people first. We could also expect to receive substandard, fake and ineffective product.

    My thinking may be flawed but wouldn't creating artificial demand and small stockpiles before a crisis, lessen the demand and at the time of an actual crisis. I can't see how production systems will have the capacity or supplies to ramp up fast enough to meet the peaks in demand.
    Last edited by KC; 25-04-2009 at 10:51 AM.

  8. #8

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    I think its a bit silly worrying about surgical masks. If this takes hold and reaches pandemic status - everybody is going to be exposed to it. You can wear a mask, but you will still pick it up a few weeks later when you touch a surface somebody else sneezed on, or similar. Most of us will catch it, its just a matter of taking care of ourselves when it happens, and hopefully having an anti viral available that works if we need it.

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    The thing in Mexico has spread to San Antonio and San Diego. They have been treated and are fine. The Mexican one looks severe. But there are around 1000 people in Mexico (especially the capital) that seem to be sick, with only about 63 currently dying. Sure that isn't good, but it looks like most people are getting treated and will be ok. But, just recently it spread to New York City, with a high school in Queens being watched carefully as 60 kids got the flu. The problem is the normal flu and the swine flu start of the same, so it is hard to tell. We don't know if the thing in Queens is just an outburst of regular flu or in fact the swine spread to NYC. I really hope it doesn't spread to Canada, especially like SARS in TO.

    *Just to give some information on how the story is unfolding as there has been some discussion here about it.
    ----

  10. #10

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    O no.. first i had to be scared of mosquitoes, then birds and now pigs.

    Lets hopethere is never a cow flu or else we are ^&%$ed

  11. #11

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    Awh - but we've already had mad cows

  12. #12
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    EDP... it has gotten much worse man. I've been following it very carefully and whenever something pops up I usually hear about it.

    You can check out this thread for news as it happens (which is really happening very quickly)... here http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=168283

    Cases have now been reported (since my last post) in:
    -Queens (New York Metro)
    -Kansas
    -more in Mexico

    and cases being suspected in:
    -Auckland
    -British Columbia
    -Minnesota
    -Nova Scotia
    -Spain
    -France
    -Britain

    Most of the suspected will probably turned into at least some confirmed.

    This thing is being projected as spreading 30% per day, this isn't good.

    I was fearful it would spread to Canada - and look it did. Lets just hope we in Alberta do not get it - although many of us love to go take a trip to Mexico so I do not quite know.

    The good thing (although weird) is that all American cases have seemed to be mild, and most patients have recovered - or are recovering - many without needing hospitalization. But in Mexico there are approximately 1300 (up from 1000 yesterday) suspected cases, and 80 known deaths believed to be connected to swine. Maybe if the US gets 1000 cases, they'll have 60 deaths ... who knows.

    Currently it is believed to be a 6% death rate among patients.

    This is said to be the first strain, of three. The first is okay, strain two and three are deadly ... like the Spanish Flu. Depending on how things go and how well this is contained, we could have strain 1 gone by summer and 6 months of hell for the rest of the disease.

    I'm praying this doesn't go worse than it has and it is kept firmly under control.
    ----

  13. #13

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    ^ I am calling in sick with pig flu tomorrow. (j/k)

    I know it's serious, but there is little that one can do, except be a little extra clean and catious.

    Buy stocks in Purcel NOW!

  14. #14

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    I don't see much point in worrying about this outbreak or any future outbreak - for the current one there's not much we can do at this point other than follow whatever protocol the officials propose and they appear to be on top of it. As for future outbreaks you either prepare for them or you don't and you simply suffer the consequences. (If it gets out of control I hope there isn't a whole lot of finger pointing as there has been with the financial crisis where we all had warning after warning on it.)

    I imagine at some point there will be an outbreak where there's under-reaction and under-reporting until it is too late to stop the spread and entire cities get quarantined and the like. (A Katrina-like-response where warning after warning is ignored and officials only 'appeared' to have developed plans and protection measures but in reality no one had given it much priority.)

    A couple other thoughts:
    1) While the strain hitting Canada apparently isn't very dangerous, it's really fascinating just how far it seemingly spread - as it was only a couple days ago that the issue even appeared in the media.
    2) Sick people packing themselves in doctors' waiting rooms, clinics and hospital emergency rooms (prior to any official cautionary statements) could essentially create little micro-brewery conditions allowing a plague to spread in a whole lot of new directions. (Ironic, isn't it that they pack sick people into little rooms and have you wait there...)

    I'm back - apparently the WHO is saying it's too late to contain it - but it seems to me that there may be two strains - one that kills and one that doesn't. If not, then has the first line of defense (containment) ALREADY failed? (Note: I know a family that left for Mexico on the weekend - they got the usual advice, and we all heard it, that it's only in Mexico City... it's not at the resorts... so they went. Of course they have to get on a plane full of people from all over the place to get back. Hey - or maybe now staying longer is safer )
    Last edited by KC; 28-04-2009 at 06:49 AM.

  15. #15

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    I thought this was interesting - a UK story from April 29th...

    Government panic to buy 32 million face masks for UK in event of swine flu pandemic

    http://www.thelondonpaper.com/thelon...n-event-of-swi

    "THE NHS was scrambling to buy 32 million face masks last night after it was revealed Britain did not have enough to protect citizens from swine flu..." "However, Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Britain was “among the best prepared countries in the world” and added that the Government was taking “all the urgent action that is necessary” to help prevent the spread of the virus." -thelondonpaper

    But this is more interesting...
    http://health.usnews.com/blogs/heart...-take-now.html

    Swine Flu's Fall Return: 3 Steps We Must Take Now
    Indeed, as the risk seems to abate, the public health focus must now shift promptly to the hard-to-gauge threat that this H1N1 influenza poses when flu season begins in the fall. And here our predictive abilities are no better than a coin flip. We have faced just three flu pandemics in the past century, two of which turned out not to be serious. But the pandemic of 1918 took half a million lives in the United States and, conservatively, 50 million worldwide. That virus, also an H1N1 strain, though of avian origin, first emerged in the spring like a lamb, only to return in the fall like a lion, having mutated into a fierce and deadly form. ...but [if] the virus does not reappear as a killer, for example, we could see a replay of the 1976 H1N1 swine flu fiasco..." - Bernadine Healy, M.D. Swine Flu's Fall Return: 3 Steps We Must Take Now, May 12, 2009
    Last edited by KC; 12-05-2009 at 06:24 PM.

  16. #16

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    What's swine flu?

    That is a comment on how it went from story du jour to a non event.

  17. #17

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    Well, they did run out of masks and it did cause some minor problems (see my post above) but the H1N1 was mild and no one was very concerned - so we were lucky on this one. On vaccines - of course there are shortages of vaccines and I'm surprised at the morons being quoted in the media trying to blame their current government officials for the vaccine problems - we're lucky to even have had a vaccine developed in time on the scale that it has. Any real failures relate to inadequate pre-planning, funding and setting up regulation by all governments over the years.

    In thinking back - it seems to me the battle for this one was lost before it ever began.

    While I'm certain that if it were a much more deadly strain, the reaction and response would have been quite different it nonetheless seemed to me to have spread around the globe before any concrete actions were taken.

    So the question we should all be asking now is: If it was a very deadly strain could it have been stopped?

    Again, in my mind, we're pretty lucky that we're getting this practice run. However, now that H1N1 is in a global human population (millions upon millions of human petrie dishes) - is there anyway to predict the risk of deadly mutations developing in the future? i.e. Will it die out as in the past or are we now at a higher risk of getting hit again and again and eventually with a real nasty global killer?
    Last edited by KC; 30-10-2009 at 08:46 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by edmonton daily photo View Post
    What's swine flu?

    That is a comment on how it went from story du jour to a non event.
    ....ouch!

  19. #19

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    Ebola's been around for decades (known since the mid 1970s I believe) and every outbreak causing an increasing number of deaths. Seems to be a failure of the system controls outbreaks or adjust plans for changing societal conditions.

    I keep thinking it's just a matter of time until we face a major failure to control something or other. Like they say about terrorism, it's a constant battle and the terrorists only have to win once.

    Ebola Declared International Public Health Emergency - Bloomberg
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...r-nations.html
    Excerpts:

    “This is a wake-up call for the world community,” Viadero said. “The problem with treatment is that when people fall ill they don’t want to go to hospital; they hide because it’s such a stigmatizing disease.”

    "Witnesses from Samaritan’s Purse and SIM USA, another charity working in the region, described nightmarish scenes in Liberia, where doctors and nurses have fled the country or refuse to work, hospitals aren’t functioning and bodies of Ebola victims lie in the streets of the capital, Monrovia, or in shallow, unsanitary mass graves."...

    "“That the world would allow two relief agencies to shoulder this burden along with the overwhelmed ministries of health in these countries testifies to the lack of serious attention the epidemic was given,” Ken Isaacs, vice president of international programs and government relations for Samaritan’s Purse, said in written testimony to Congress." ...



    -
    Last edited by KC; 08-08-2014 at 08:08 AM.

  20. #20
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    Meh. It's not as easy to catch as the media wants you to think

  21. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kitlope View Post
    Meh. It's not as easy to catch as the media wants you to think
    Yeah, but that's yesterday's Ebola. Probably today's Ebola too. Tomorrow's Ebola may be something else.

    Let thousands of people catch and spread any nasty virus and I start to wonder if anyone can qualify the risks and appropriate responses.



    Thanks to Fox News to set the record straight:

    Let's put the Ebola outbreak in perspective | Fox News

    "The third fiction centers around the simple word “mutation.” There are physicians of all specialties and backgrounds with no experience with emerging pathogens appearing on TV and radio right now, wildly speculating about the possibility of a mutation leading to Ebola becoming airborne and killing millions.

    We are all part of a global health community but the scientific facts are, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, that it is highly unlikely that Ebola will mutate in a major way. It is a stable virus, he told me in an interview last week. Unlike the flu, which is very prone to changes and presents us with a different major strain to contend with each year, the current strain of Ebola is almost identical to the original strain that first infected humans in what was then known as Zaire in 1976."

    http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2014/...n-perspective/
    Last edited by KC; 09-09-2014 at 05:53 PM.

  22. #22

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    Royal Alex Emergency is closed to isolate patient who has "mystery illness".

    i wonder if it's a case of suspected Ebola?

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Emerg...794/story.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    Royal Alex Emergency is closed to isolate patient who has "mystery illness".

    i wonder if it's a case of suspected Ebola?

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Emerg...794/story.html
    News conference at 10. Live streamed on CBC site:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...ment-1.2774057

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    Regarding Ebola, there was an interesting piece on Quirks and Quarks about the sequencing of the current strain of Ebola.

    http://www.cbc.ca/quirks/2014/09/06/2014-09-06-1/

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    From the news conference, they suspected Ebola based on travel and symptoms so took precautions. They now say they've ruled out Ebola and will be reopening at 11. They closed at 6:30 this morning.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  26. #26

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    They now say they've ruled out Ebola
    I can see why they are confident, but to completely rule it out seems presumptuous without having lab results to confirm that.

    This patient was said to have traveled from a place in Africa that is not a "hot spot" for Ebola, but is it not possible they caught it from someone on the plane who was from an Ebola "hot spot"?

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    They now say they've ruled out Ebola
    I can see why they are confident, but to completely rule it out seems presumptuous without having lab results to confirm that.

    This patient was said to have traveled from a place in Africa that is not a "hot spot" for Ebola, but is it not possible they caught it from someone on the plane who was from an Ebola "hot spot"?
    Without knowing all the patient information it's impossible for us to determine whether it's presumptuous or not to rule out Ebola. They may have clear contra-indicators that make them confident with their decision. Given that the people making the decision are highly trained and the most directly at risk I would tend to trust them.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  28. #28

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    Given that I worked beside a lot of doctors, and have seen them make a lot of big boneheaded mistakes that any human beings make (which needed correcting later on), I cannot fully trust them to rule out Ebola until a laboratory confirms it.

  29. #29

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    Even if, by chance, it is a case of Ebola, I'd 'guess' that we're fairly well prepared for it here now, in the form it is now in. Even if the patient spread it fairly widely before entering the hospital would it be a big deal? I doubt it - this time.

    However, how many wake up calls are needed to the possibility we have built our systems to operate in a narrow range of 'fair weather' conditions. Expect them to be overwhelmed fairly easily. (In many ways cost control, tax minimization and profit seeking designs out surplus and redundant capacity.)

  30. #30

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    Interesting article and a number of very interesting insights into preparations for bio-terrorism:

    How the U.S. Screwed Up in the Fight Against Ebola

    Excerpt:

    "The new arrivals wanted to drive products through early trials and to always be shipping. Older employees wanted to focus on publishing research and securing academic prestige. “When you work with a group of scientists who believe that the best thing that they can do is have a published paper, you’re not going to get a lot of productivity when it comes to pharmaceuticals,” says Meade. “Published papers are important in that line of work, but that seemed to be more important to them than anything else.” "


    "...Any plan spends money on something that hasn’t happened yet, something difficult for any president to do. And it forces different federal agencies to work well together, something no U.S. president has yet accomplished. According to Kadlec, Bill Clinton became alarmed about bioterror toward the end of his administration. George W. Bush fired Clinton’s bioterror adviser, then rehired him after Sept. 11. Dick Cheney was consumed by bioterror. Obama is now. And he’s handling a situation none of his predecessors planned for: a natural foreign outbreak that may ..."

    http://www.businessweek.com/articles...entagon-agency




    ~
    Last edited by KC; 25-09-2014 at 08:14 AM.

  31. #31

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    ^as annoying as the US is, and as much as Liberia has a US linked history (ugly one where former slave's were "encouraged" to return to Africa), why are they blamed / responsible for everything?

  32. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    ^as annoying as the US is, and as much as Liberia has a US linked history (ugly one where former slave's were "encouraged" to return to Africa), why are they blamed / responsible for everything?
    Simple, it makes for good headlines and increases media revenues.

    When I first grabbed the title and link (via sending article by email) it came up as follows, but my copy failed and I had to grab the headline off the article. Seems the title was later changed by Bloomberg to blame the US.

    Ebola Drug ZMapp's Development Delayed by Pentagon Agency - Businessweek


    Do read the article though. Shows why we're all doomed. . When it comes to issues like these bureaucracies, critics etc. seem to hold to the old adage that: "It's not whether you win or loose, it's how you play the game." Except it is whether you win or loose.



    ~
    Last edited by KC; 25-09-2014 at 08:27 AM.

  33. #33

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    Ebola Shot Turned Down by WHO Is Best Hope as Virus Rages
    Excerpts:

    "The sudden sense of urgency for an Ebola vaccine was an about face from a few months earlier when Glaxo contacted the WHO, asking whether its vaccine could help with the outbreak. At that time, the company was told the focus was on containment and the WHO didn’t have a policy for using vaccines in this type of situation. “We’ll get back to you” "...

    “It wasn’t really until the first week in August when it was clear that the epidemic was something very different from what we had ever seen before that WHO came to us and said we really need you to accelerate this vaccine,” Ballou said. “Within 24 hours, we had all of our partners on the phone.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...rus-rages.html

  34. #34

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    So, every time it arrives, will it drag down hospital performance? ...and what are the first, second and third order consequences?

    1st Ebola case diagnosed in U.S. confirmed by CDC
    'I have no doubt that we will control this importation,' U.S. CDC director says
    CBC News Posted: Sep 30, 2014 5:01 PM ET Last Updated: Sep 30, 2014

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/1st-eb...-cdc-1.2783023

  35. #35

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    Well, this is an interesting planning problem:

    US Ebola patient's waste not cleared from apartment two days after diagnosis
    Health officials admit they were unable to find waste management company willing to accept soiled towels and sheets

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...tment-two-days

  36. #36

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    I'm glad they are bringing up the issue of ethics. One just has to think of WWII's internment camps and the "horrifically unethical" treatment of people at that time. Also interesting is how even knowledgeable people are acquiring the virus despite prevention "not being rocket science". Of course, as Yoggi Berra said: “In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But in practice, there is.”

    Too bad that world doesn't take this pandemic stuff very seriously anymore.



    Ebola cases could reach 10,000 per week in 2 months: WHO
    WHO aims to have 70% of cases isolated within 2 months to reverse outbreak


    excerpt:
    " ..."It would be horrifically unethical to say that we're just going to isolate people," he said, noting that new strategies like handing out protective equipment to families and setting up very basic clinics — without much treatment — was a priority. "

    "In other news Tuesday, the international aid organization Doctors Without Borders said 16 of its staff members have been infected with the Ebola virus. Of these, nine have died. ...

    Pederson said it "is not rocket science" to manage Ebola, but very basic infection control and protection, such as use of clean water, chorine and soap to disinfect affected areas, are needed. "

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/ebola-...-who-1.2797782




    As vaccine trials begin, Canada set to review Ebola strategy
    excerpt:

    "One provincial officer said questions remain about how any case – or outbreak – would be handled."

    “Should we expect every hospital to be able to care for an Ebola patient? Or should we say we’re going to have a centre for expertise in every province?” Perry Kendall, British Columbia’s Provincial Health Officer, said in an interview Monday, adding: “I think those are the kind of pragmatic things we’re going to be talking about.”


    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...ticle21079505/
    Last edited by KC; 14-10-2014 at 10:57 AM.

  37. #37

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    The few people I know who work in major hospitals have not been taught any protocols for handling suspected Ebola cases.

    Which is awful because staff are terrified (Edmonton has had 2 scares so far), and those responses were so disorganized and reactionary (not clear and proactive) that it's getting to the point where staff automatically stand back and get extra protective whenever a black patient with an accent enters the facility, just in case they caught Ebola from a relative in Africa.

    It's not like anyone in AHS management would suffer or be held accountable if any front-line staff catch Ebola.

  38. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    The few people I know who work in major hospitals have not been taught any protocols for handling suspected Ebola cases.

    Which is awful because staff are terrified (Edmonton has had 2 scares so far), and those responses were so disorganized and reactionary (not clear and proactive) that it's getting to the point where staff automatically stand back and get extra protective whenever a black patient with an accent enters the facility, just in case they caught Ebola from a relative in Africa.

    It's not like anyone in AHS management would suffer or be held accountable if any front-line staff catch Ebola.
    You're crazy. So do you expect any of us to believe you over the 'experts'. Well, experts at PR but experts none-the-less.

    Any official or media talking head I've ever heard talk about any low probability, high consequence event has always said we're well prepared, or there's no reason to panic ( or the one I heard a few days ago: "there's no reason to panic yet" ) and essentially that the system can handle it.
    Last edited by KC; 15-10-2014 at 08:12 AM.

  39. #39

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    I've always thought the production / distribution / shortages issues that can arise in a crisis must be fascinating. At some point can response even be ramped up fast enough to meet demand that is also rising? As business, government and society increasingly works on a zero inventory and just-in-time delivery basis (to reduce costs, facilitate shorty term, credit based living, etc.) what happens when demand spikes?


    DuPont suits part of battle against Ebola crisis
    Maureen Milford, The News Journal, October 14, 2014

    "...The need is daunting. The World Health Organization estimates a monthly need for 300,000 personal protection suits or seven suits daily per bed, according to Daniel Epstein, spokesman for WHO. In October so far, the organization has shipped 240,000 suits, he said. ...

    Three million suits could be needed in the next nine months. ..."

    http://www.delawareonline.com/story/...isis/17275233/

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    One more somewhat interesting article. (Too many things about preparedness and errors to even quote.)

    Still, Spain hasn't seen any further spread of this disease so it shows a lot of things can go wrong with some outbreaks and it still not create a big hazard.



    Spain Exposes Holes in Plans to Treat Ebola
    By JIM YARDLEYOCT. 14, 2014, NYT

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/wo...cuts.html?_r=0

  41. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    You're crazy. So do you expect any of us to believe you over the 'experts'.
    It's your choice to believe me or not. I can say that I work (in many different capacities) with a lot of people who were working both times there was Ebola scares at the Alex. There is serious talk among some staff that they will refuse to work next time someone is suspected of Ebola because they feel unsafe because of the lack of preparedness (from what i am told, they still don't have directions to follow, have had no practice runs, and still lack proper PPE).


    What I find the most troublesome about all the media talk by our public health experts is that they are spending all their energy trying to downplay everything instead of using this as an opportunity to remind the public that good handwashing and hygiene practices are protective and would help stop the spread of diseases like this.
    Last edited by MrOilers; 15-10-2014 at 09:58 AM.

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    A second nurse in the Dallas hospital has tested positive:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ebola-o...-ill-1.2798937

    The kicker is, she just recently took a flight and has potentially exposed another 100+ people to it.

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    This is going to get worse before it gets better, no doubt. A couple more months and it might be out in to the general population in N. America. Combine that with flu season and people might thing "oh it's just the flu" or worse, overwhelm healthcare facilities. Once it's here, the simple question of 'have you been to west africa recently' won't really tell you anything.

  44. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by nobleea View Post
    This is going to get worse before it gets better, no doubt. A couple more months and it might be out in to the general population in N. America. Combine that with flu season and people might thing "oh it's just the flu" or worse, overwhelm healthcare facilities. Once it's here, the simple question of 'have you been to west africa recently' won't really tell you anything.
    Ahh, we pay a lot of people big, BIG bucks (plus offer great pensions and amazing golden handshakes) to make the hard decisions to keep us healthy and safe, build our long-term standard of living using our unprecedented wealth. We just have to have faith in them. Don't worry, be happy.


    Dr. Paul Parks: Our health-care system is on verge of collapse
    BY DR. PAUL PARKS, CALGARY HERALD OCTOBER 7, 2014

    http://www.calgaryherald.com/opinion...568/story.html





    Time for a Grantham quote. (Note: As you probably know, I have a real affinity towards this quote. My lack of "career risk" allows me to "wallow" in the world of such preventative issues. It just seems more rational to avoid devastation than just sit and let the quite predictable flood over us all. Essentially, design out risk, you design in quality, design in wealth creation, health, longevity, etc. Hence my interest in Milton Glaser, Grantham, Warren Buffett, Edwards Deming, Laurence Kotlikoff, Peter Peterson, etc.)


    "My second theory would be even harder to prove, and this
    is it: that CEOs are picked for their left-brain skills – focus,
    hard work, decisiveness, persuasiveness, political skills,
    and, if you are lucky, analytical skills and charisma. The
    “Great American Executives” are not picked for patience.
    Indeed, if they could even spell the word they would be
    fired. They are not paid to put their feet up or waste time
    thinking about history and the long-term future; they are
    paid to be decisive and to act now.

    The type of people who saw these problems unfolding,
    on the other hand, had much less career risk or none at
    all. We know literally dozens of these people. In fact,
    almost all the people who have good historical data and
    are thoughtful were giving us good advice, often for years
    before the troubles arrived. They all have the patience of
    Job.
    They are also all right-brained: more intuitive, more
    given to developing odd theories, wallowing in historical
    data, and taking their time. They are almost universally
    interested – even obsessed – with outlier events, and
    unique, new, and different combinations of factors. These
    ruminations take up a good chunk of their time. Do such
    thoughts take more than a few seconds of time for the
    great CEOs who, to the man, missed everything that was
    new and different? Unfortunately for all of us, it was the
    new and different this time that just happened to be vital.
    It is therefore ironic that we fire these top CEOs when
    the trouble hits. The headline should read: “Come back,
    leaders of Merrill, Citi, Bear, and Lehman. All is forgiven
    (for a while).” The typical CEO is precisely equipped to
    deal with emergencies and digging out. Thus, Paulson
    was just the man to miss the point, but equally just the
    man – or at least a typically good one – to deal with a
    complicated crisis under stress."

    GMO Qrtrly Letter 2008




    ~
    Last edited by KC; 15-10-2014 at 12:41 PM.

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    Theory vs practice for novel experiences...

    I'd say this (see quote below) appears to shows that some of the basic measures have turned out to be a "work in progress" and not determined well in advance.

    Canada ready for possible Ebola case says Health Minister Ambrose
    By Staff The Canadian Press October 15, 2014 5:35 pm
    excerpt:

    “On this call I encouraged all provinces and territories to look into doing tests runs to ensure protocols are in place, and proper personal protective gear is available.”

    http://globalnews.ca/news/1615810/nd...eak-in-canada/



    Dangerous exposure, sloppy conditions in Ebola care, Dallas nurses charge
    National Nurses United described flimsy coverings as health care workers dealt with Ebola patient’s explosive diarrhea and projectile vomiting.

    Matt Sedensky And Martha Mendoza The Associated Press, Published on Wed Oct 15 2014

    http://www.thestar.com/news/world/20...es_charge.html
    Last edited by KC; 16-10-2014 at 08:43 AM.

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    CBC is repeating a lot of the things I have heard (and mentioned in this thread):


    Ebola outbreak: front-line workers warn Alberta not prepared

    Training and proper equipment are lacking, say health-care worker and ER doctor

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...ared-1.2799608

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    Wow, even Fox News is providing sensible coverage:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2KBfynW09I

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Wow, even Fox News is providing sensible coverage:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2KBfynW09I
    That's more of a Shep Smith thing, than a Fox thing. He pretty frequently does bits like that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Wow, even Fox News is providing sensible coverage:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2KBfynW09I
    That's more of a Shep Smith thing, than a Fox thing. He pretty frequently does bits like that.
    Fair enough but at least the message is being delivered.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    "Since you've done such a wonderful job treating the Ebola ridden sick here's an airline ticket to the destination of your choice".

    My god, could people be any stupider?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kitlope View Post
    "Since you've done such a wonderful job treating the Ebola ridden sick here's an airline ticket to the destination of your choice".

    My god, could people be any stupider?
    My understanding was that she was on a personal flight, not one paid for by her employer. The CDC cleared her for travel as she had no symptoms and no fever. Given the difficulty of transmitting the disease the only mistake the CDC made was in terms of public relations. They didn't cater the public's vast overreaction to this disease.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  52. #52

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Given the difficulty of transmitting the disease the only mistake the CDC made was in terms of public relations.
    No, she was infected and didn't know it. The CDC got them to disinfect the entire plane, and are trying to follow up with every passenger on board as a reactionary measure to their mistake.

    This Dallas hospital and the CDC screwed up. Several times. Being nonchalant about a disease as infectious and as lethal as Ebola is irresponsible, and the CDC got rightfully grilled today by Congress for their mishandling of potentially-infected staff.

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    I can understand screwups occurring as has happened in the Portuguese and the US hospitals. You have to expect that and plan for that when a new and novel event is experienced in the front lines. Only true idiots react and blame those who are on the front lines and who are the actual "doers" when such errors occur.

    In fact it's quite hilarious how the events are developing. (Emotional people getting scared and overreacting since they lived in some sort of fairy tale world maybe?) Everyone knew very well what Spanish Flu did, and then other more recent outbreaks served to remind the world of anything that was forgotten over the past 100 years. This article below shows how everyone (i.e. experts and lawmakers) is pretty much flying by the seat of their pants when making decisions on threats and responses. You'd think that considerable thought and advance preparation and criteria would have been well established, in place, and invoked as a threat breaches certain chicken limits.

    U.S. lawmakers blast government's Ebola response, urge travel ban

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0I517E20141016


    .
    Last edited by KC; 16-10-2014 at 05:47 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Given the difficulty of transmitting the disease the only mistake the CDC made was in terms of public relations.
    No, she was infected and didn't know it. The CDC got them to disinfect the entire plane, and are trying to follow up with every passenger on board as a reactionary measure to their mistake.

    This Dallas hospital and the CDC screwed up. Several times. Being nonchalant about a disease as infectious and as lethal as Ebola is irresponsible, and the CDC got rightfully grilled today by Congress for their mishandling of potentially-infected staff.
    All the reactionary measures are to show the public they're doing something rather than because they are necessary. The nurse in question was not contagious when she was travelling. The mistake the CDC made was to think in terms of epidemiology rather than public reaction.

    The Dallas hospital, on the other hand, may have made mistakes given they have two workers infected from one patient. Given that the standard transmission rate to health care workers is one in ten thousand (based on MSF field work) they appear have messed up somewhere. That said, most hospitals aren't prepared to deal with infections of this type. The mistake may have been to not transfer the patient to a more specialized facility immediately.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  55. #55

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    Given the difficulty of transmitting the disease the only mistake the CDC made was in terms of public relations.
    No, she was infected and didn't know it. The CDC got them to disinfect the entire plane, and are trying to follow up with every passenger on board as a reactionary measure to their mistake.

    This Dallas hospital and the CDC screwed up. Several times. Being nonchalant about a disease as infectious and as lethal as Ebola is irresponsible, and the CDC got rightfully grilled today by Congress for their mishandling of potentially-infected staff.
    All the reactionary measures are to show the public they're doing something rather than because they are necessary. The nurse in question was not contagious when she was travelling. The mistake the CDC made was to think in terms of epidemiology rather than public reaction.

    The Dallas hospital, on the other hand, may have made mistakes given they have two workers infected from one patient. Given that the standard transmission rate to health care workers is one in ten thousand (based on MSF field work) they appear have messed up somewhere. That said, most hospitals aren't prepared to deal with infections of this type. The mistake may have been to not transfer the patient to a more specialized facility immediately.
    Mistakes will happen, it's new, it's novel, it's a change. Change creates error. Emotional self-righteous reactions to the inevitable errors, just turn errors into unproductive "witch hunts", misdirection of attention, resources, etc.

    What seems crazy however is that a horrific historical experience combined with several near term close calls don't lead to considerable advance pre-planning and scenario development for prevention during stable periods.

    Without a lot of advance preparation, once something hits the world loses its head. Just look at all the confusion here in North America even with our ability to quickly research and understand issues before "flipping out", yet we still flip out and ask questions later... and now think of the poor people in Africa.

    Just look at this example:

    Ebola: Why Was #ClipBoardGuy Not Wearing A Protective Suit?
    by Brendan ByrneOctober 16, 2014, 3:24 pm

    http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/10/ebo...otective-suit/


    .
    Last edited by KC; 16-10-2014 at 09:34 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kitlope View Post
    Meh. It's not as easy to catch as the media wants you to think
    It seems that the experts aren't too sure about what's all involved and I'd say in hindsight that the media was under reacting when it was only in Africa and now that it's in North America they are over reacting. Pretty sad. However, it still sounds like it's not too easy to catch even though they still have things to learn about it.

    In the future though, there may be a virus that is easy to catch, so ebola may just provide another interesting and useful example on our learning curve before the potential "big one". I'd say though that in Africa, this is a "big one".

  57. #57

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    The nurse in question was not contagious when she was travelling.
    New information from the CDC tonight is saying otherwise. She apparently was symptomatic on both flights.

  58. #58

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    The nurse in question was not contagious when she was travelling.
    New information from the CDC tonight is saying otherwise. She apparently was symptomatic on both flights.
    Yeah, the link I posted stated that too. Still, all this excitement because she took a flight? Again, we can expect mistakes early in any battle. But why do flight concerns trump other forms of spreading the problem? She could have gone to a mall, a school, a grocery store or ridden an escalator too, yet no one cares about that? It seems like this is witch hunting and emotion now that people see a risk coming to their own door step.

    This is a very interesting discussion (link below). Note the author's reasoning but also her use of subtle emotionally laden attack words and thus lack of finding the right answers and instead getting her way on her preconceived solution. The problem is now trying to separate the problem solvers from all the others.


    Who Do They Think We Are?
    The administration’s Ebola evasions reveal its disdain for the American people.
    By PEGGY NOONAN CONNECT
    Excerpts:

    "But again, who do they think we are? You gather they see us as poor, panic-stricken people who want a travel ban because we’re beside ourselves with fear and loathing. Instead of practical, realistic people who are way ahead of our government."
    http://online.wsj.com/articles/who-d...are-1413502475
    Last edited by KC; 17-10-2014 at 07:16 AM.

  59. #59

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    But why do flight concerns trump other forms of spreading the problem?
    Well, airplanes are notoriously dirty, dozens of people stuck in crowded conditions with partially recycled air for several hours, and it's easy to track who have been on a flight.

    They have been following up as well with people who may have been elsewhere this nurse was. The relatives she visited have been given self-monitoring instructions, and customers of a bridal shop in Ohio that the nurse visited last weekend are asked to call the CDC as well. Unfortunately, due to the long incubation period we might not know for a few weeks if there is no concern that it has spread to anyone else.

    What I find the most alarming is the colossal amount of resources it has taken to keep this contained, all because one single Ebola patient went to an American hospital.

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    I think there's been some confusion as she was on two different flights. It does appear that she may have had early symptoms on her flight home but was cleared to fly anyways. If that was the case then the whoever cleared her made a mistake. The reaction is still primarily reactionary as unless someone came in direct contact with bodily fluids from her (primarily blood, faeces and vomit) they are at no risk.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  61. #61

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    Interesting how this is still entrenched in Haiti. You have to wonder why.


    United in immunity: UN in the dock over Haiti cholera outbreak
    2014-10-14
    excerpt:
    "Four years into the world’s worst ever cholera epidemic, Haitians are still seeking compensation from the United Nations, whose own experts have said it is “most likely” to blame for the deadly outbreak.

    "The epidemic has killed more than 8,500 people in the impoverished Caribbean nation, and is continuing to claim victims -- some 300 people are diagnosed with the disease each week..."

    Dozens of epidemiologists -- including those appointed by the UN itself -- have identified UN Nepalese peacekeepers stationed in central Haiti as the "most likely source of the outbreak". "...

    http://www.france24.com/en/20141010-...-ban-immunity/

  62. #62

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    The reaction is still primarily reactionary as unless someone came in direct contact with bodily fluids from her (primarily blood, faeces and vomit) they are at no risk.
    No risk? No, there is still a risk because sweat, saliva, and tears are also infectious. the virus is also stable and remains infectious on surfaces for days (a sweaty hand on a doorknob, for instance).

    If there was "no risk" they wouldn't bother decontaminating that plane and following-up with other passengers.

    And my problem with this response to Ebola case in the USA is that it is 100% reactionary. Also, considering the ridiculously stupid decisions of exposed health care staff (one nurse now has quarantined herself on a Caribbean cruise), self-monitoring is not the ideal way to control this.
    Last edited by MrOilers; 17-10-2014 at 10:16 AM.

  63. #63

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Interesting how this is still entrenched in Haiti. You have to wonder why.
    Cholera is spread through unsafe drinking water and poor sanitation. No surprise that cholera is a problem in Haiti.
    Last edited by MrOilers; 17-10-2014 at 10:15 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    The reaction is still primarily reactionary as unless someone came in direct contact with bodily fluids from her (primarily blood, faeces and vomit) they are at no risk.
    No risk? No, there is still a risk because sweat, saliva, and tears are also infectious. the virus is also stable and remains infectious on surfaces for days (a sweaty hand on a doorknob, for instance).

    If there was "no risk" they wouldn't bother decontaminating that plane and following-up with other passengers.

    And my problem with this response to Ebola case in the USA is that it is 100% reactionary. Also, considering the ridiculously stupid decisions of exposed health care staff (one nurse now has quarantined herself on a Caribbean cruise), self-monitoring is not the ideal way to control this.
    The virus has never been isolated from sweat. It has only been found in saliva during the severe stages of the illness. Studies on tears have been inconclusive. Infection, especially in the early symptomatic stages is only through direct contact with blood, faeces, vomit, urine, and semen.

    http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/...tober-2014/en/

    The follow-up and decontamination are less about actual risk and primarily about dealing with public reaction. Public concern about ebola is far greater than the actual risk but that means public health organizations have to take measures commensurate with public perception. It reminds a lot of the reaction to terrorism where reaction is far in excess of actual risk.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    Stupid double post...
    Last edited by MrOilers; 17-10-2014 at 11:56 AM.

  66. #66

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    It has only been found in saliva during the severe stages of the illness.
    That is untrue. it is most frequently found in people with severe symptoms, but has been detected in saliva of people with Ebola in all stages of the illness.


    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    The follow-up and decontamination are less about actual risk and primarily about dealing with public reaction.
    Of course. But it's silly to shrug off any risk. This is an incredibly dangerous illness, it is contageous, and it can survive on a dry surface for as long as 3 weeks..

    The risk of Ebola infection from casual contact is low, but the infectious dose for this is very small, and when it happens the consequences are extremely serious. We also assume a lot about it - like the 2 to 21 day incubation period that was discovered in the 1970s, but never fully confirmed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    The follow-up and decontamination are less about actual risk and primarily about dealing with public reaction.
    Of course. But it's silly to shrug off any risk. This is an incredibly dangerous illness and it is contageous.

    The risk of Ebola infection from casual contact is low, but the infectious dose for this is very small, and when it happens the consequences are extremely serious. We also assume a lot about it - like the 2 to 21 day incubation period that was discovered in the 1970s, but never fully confirmed.
    I'm not shrugging it off, I'm keeping it in context. When dealing with infected patients or potentially infected patients extreme caution is warranted. However a lot of public reaction I've seen is way over the top compared to the actual risk.

    In the Dallas case it's clear there was a failure in precautions at the treatment level and it needs to be determined where that failure was. There is ample evidence from groups like MSF (Médecins Sans Frontières) that ebola can be treated with minimal risk to the medical staff. They've treated over 2000 cases in Africa with only two transmissions to their personnel. If I had to speculate, it might be that the medical staff in Dallas put too much faith in the suits and that led to them being sloppy on procedure.

    For the nurse who travelled, I don't think there was a mistake in letting her take the first flight however she should have been quarantined in Ohio if she was indeed exhibiting symptoms before her second flight.

    As for the nurse on the cruise, it appears the CDC is damage control mode as she has no symptoms but with two transmissions confirmed they're in the position of having to isolate everyone who was in contact with the patient or his fluids until they're past the 21 day period.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    I don't actually think we'll see many more people infected from this original case in Dallas, but my biggest fear is the fact that the disease is still spreading exponentially in Africa.

    The number of cases in the hot spots is on pace to double in 3 weeks, then to spread to another 10,000 cases per week after that. To put that into perspective, the number of cases we can't keep up with NOW hasn't even yet hit 10,000. To make it worse, there is no plan (not even conceptually) to deal with Ebola if it hits six figures. hundreds of thousands of cases would be a full-fledged catastrophe.

    Keeping all of that in mind, I fear that it is just a matter of time before some workers bring it to their home countries and infect unprepared health care workers in their home town hospitals. i also believe that it is only a matter of time before there is an exodus of people desperate to get away from West Africa and may hide their illnesses and start spreading it in international airports because they would rather be looked after in a foreign hospital than be stuck in a West African one.
    Last edited by MrOilers; 17-10-2014 at 12:24 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    I don't actually think we'll see many more people infected from this original case in Dallas, but my biggest fear is the fact that the disease is still spreading exponentially in Africa.

    The number of cases in the hot spots is on pace to double in 3 weeks, then to spread to another 10,000 cases per week after that. To put that into perspective, the number of cases we can't keep up with NOW hasn't even yet hit 10,000. To make it worse, there is no plan (not even conceptually) to deal with Ebola if it hits six figures. hundreds of thousands of cases would be a full-fledged catastrophe.

    Keeping all of that in mind, I fear that it is just a matter of time before some workers bring it to their home countries and infect unprepared health care workers in their home town hospitals. i also believe that it is only a matter of time before there is an exodus of people desperate to get away from West Africa and may hide their illnesses and start spreading it in international airports because they would rather be looked after in a foreign hospital than be stuck in a West African one.
    This is definitely a problem and where resources need to be applied.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    Listening to news now and it sounds like the decontamination of the plane was the airlines' choice and not requested by the CDC.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    Quote Originally Posted by edmonton daily photo View Post
    What's swine flu?

    That is a comment on how it went from story du jour to a non event.
    I wouldn't be surprised if this sentiment may soon apply to this ebola outbreak. Still, note my first posting on ebola in this thread. Each outbreak has done more and more damage over the past 40 or so years. That just doesn't seem very encouraging.

    The point is to determine what rational steps should be taken well in advance for various pandemic scenarios where a pesky bug gets out of hand and then have criteria that automatically kick in and not have a lot of high level confusion and emotion driving the response. (Basically, we need 'an equipment and supplies are at the ready' provisioning scenario - even if the equipment leaves a lot to be desired. As things are now, hospitals alone would seize up with any significant problem. eg. Speading ebola geographically as a result of an airplane ride might be a luckier happenstance than spreading it in a tight geographic location with only say one hospital, possibly very ill equipped to handle more than one case at a time.)

    Ebola is a really slow moving threat (time wise) but think back to SARS, H1N1, etc. where the threat spread much faster. In some future scenario people will be wasting time debating, protesting, witch hunting and appointing weirdly qualified czars rather than trying to anticipate needs and responses?
    Last edited by KC; 17-10-2014 at 06:52 PM.

  72. #72

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    It pretty interesting how society can turn those we most need, or may most need, against us. It's also amazing that there isn't pretty well established protocols for much of what is happening. Something like terrorism alerts, where certain actions are approved after certain predictable thresholds are crossed.

    Quarantined nurse says she was treated like a criminal
    By Danielle Haynes, Oct. 26, 2014


    http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2014/...?spt=sec&or=tn

  73. #73

    Default

    I believe this is called working at "cross"-purposes...

    Ebola outbreak: World Bank chief appeals for volunteers

    Excerpt:

    "Right now, I'm very much worried about where we will find those healthcare workers," he said.

    "With the fear factor going out of control in so many places, I hope healthcare professionals will understand that when they took their oath to become a health care worker it was precisely for moments like this," he added."

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29798555


    Ebola-quarantined U.S. nurse to sue in test of states' policies
    Excerpt:
    Lawrence Gostin, a Georgetown University law professor and health expert, said states' authority to issue quarantine orders is broad, but not unlimited.

    "I can’t recall a case in the 20th century where certain states are preparing to quarantine an entire class of people irrespective of their individualized risk," he said. "It just flies in the face of science, ethics and law."

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0IF0VT20141027
    Last edited by KC; 29-10-2014 at 01:12 AM.

  74. #74

    Default

    The discussion of the delay and lack of interest, and lack of funding, in developing a response to a virus discovered decades ago is interesting...

    ZMapp and the fight against Ebola
    FEBRUARY 15, 2015, 7:05 PM|In his final story for 60 Minutes, Bob Simon reports on the long and complicated development of ZMapp, a promising drug to combat Ebola.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/zmapp-...against-ebola/

  75. #75

    Default

    More on ebola...

    Bill Gates:
    The next outbreak? We’re not ready
    TED2015 · 8:32 · Filmed Mar 2015

    "In 2014, the world avoided a global outbreak of Ebola, thanks to thousands of selfless health workers — plus, frankly, some very good luck. In hindsight, we know what we should have done better. So, now's the time, Bill Gates suggests, to put all our good ideas into practice, from scenario planning to vaccine research to health worker training. As he says, "There's no need to panic ... but we need to get going." "

    http://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_...e_re_not_ready

    Emails reveal WHO delayed declaring Ebola emergency due to political considerations
    BY AP | LAST UPDATED: APR 3, 2015

    "Declaring an emergency was “a last resort,” Dr. Sylvie Briand, who runs WHO’s pandemic and epidemic diseases department, said in a June 5 email to a colleague who floated the idea. “It may be more efficient to use other diplomatic means for now.”

    Five days after Dr. Briand’s email, WHO Director-General Dr. Margaret Chan was sent a memo that warned cases might soon appear in Mali, Ivory Coast and Guinea Bissau. But it went on to say that declaring an international emergency or even convening a committee to discuss it “could be seen as a hostile act.” ..."


    http://www.finalcall.com/artman/publ...e_102254.shtml
    Last edited by KC; 06-04-2015 at 10:11 AM.

  76. #76

    Default

    Now it's Zika.

    Any thoughts on the implications, etc?

    I know they are testing right now. So, if it turns out that allowing travel to the south risks introducing Zita to our own mosquito population, would authorities stop all such travel?

    What are to potential societal costs posed by Zita once it's in a country?

    Other thoughts?

  77. #77
    I'd rather C2E than work!
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    Default

    The initial reaction by WHO was mostly precautionary. Right now it's still unsure if the microcephaly was caused by Zika or not.

    Currently there is no danger in Canada except for cases picked up travelling and the small risk of human to human transfer through sex. The species of mosquito Zika travels in does not exist in Canada. The distribution of the species that can carry it is fairly limited however the regions are very heavily populated.


    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  78. #78

    Default

    They are trying to determine if any mosquitos in Canada could pick it up. If that is possible, does that raise the issue of large numbers of Canadians requiring costly care should the virus get established in Canada?

    Spring is coming.

  79. #79

    Default

    Zika's potential to spread in U.S. 'scarier than we initially thought:' CDC - Health - CBC News
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/zika-cdc-1.3530374

  80. #80
    I'd rather C2E than work!
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    Default

    Given the mosquito that is the main vector of Zika does not exist in Canada the biggest issue here will be sexual transmission by people who got the virus travelling.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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