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Thread: Is this the beginning of the end of super profits in the Oil industry?

  1. #101

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    Oil isn't going far...

    While you're looking only at the automobile there is a whole other world that needs the stuff...
    Chemicals
    Plastics
    Electronics
    and all the diversity involved is massive as well as all the other forms of production using oil

    Still in transport where there are no real alternatives at this time
    Heavy Transport Trucks
    Rail
    Ships of all sizes
    Heavy construction equipment of all types...forestry, mining etc etc
    Aircraft of all types across the board...ain't no practical electric on the horizon except for light toys.

    Even within automotive the demand will remain massive...
    Extreme climates, very hot/very cold drive the practicality of electric way down
    Extended range...200-300 miles (320 to 480k) may be fine for many areasm but still a huge market where it's not.

    Full size 4WD trucks and vehicles of all kinds, particularly farm and work
    and on and on...

    Electric is still working out many bugs, but between the tropic of Cancer/Tropic of Capricorn, short range they are already becoming very practical...but then there is the rest of the world.

    Plus the existing infrastructure will carry for many years before it winds down.

    Times are changing in the automotive/vehicle world...but it's evolution not revolution as some oush it.

    My thoughts and what I see.

    T

  2. #102

    Default

    Global demand is still rising, depletion is a fact of life. Shale oil availability should cap any fears of outrageously high prices in the medium term and depletion will use up the cheapest oil. Going forward, oil prices should eventually recover somewhat and put Alberta in a better position.

  3. #103

    Default

    Some points by John Kemp, Reuters News, to be delivered at UCL Ramsay Chemical Engineering Society, in London, UK. I receive this by e-mail from him, so no link.

    Also, reading Exxon CEO's remarks, I couldn't stop laughing at the idea that Rex Tillerson might have been posting here on C2E, under the handle KC

    Does oil have a future?

    Twenty years ago I was where most of you are now, just completing my degree, which in my case was in economics and politics. A few months later I embarked on my first job. I am now at roughly the midpoint of my career. It’s a time for reflection, when you start to look back at what you’ve accomplished, the strange turns your career has taken along the way, and what you still want to accomplish in the remaining 20 or 30 years of working life.

    I started working on 17 August 1996. Just over a year later, the East Asian financial crisis erupted, starting in Thailand and rippling across the region. Emerging market economies became submerging ones. Oil supply began to run ahead of demand, stocks rose, and prices fell. In December 1998, oil prices dipped briefly below $10 per barrel (worth around $14-15 today). The financial press was full of stories about the world drowning in oil and prices never recovering.

    In the next couple of years, I spent a lot of time analysing and writing about whether OPEC could or would do anything to stabilise the market, whether Russia and other producers would cooperate, what would happen to all the massive stockpile of oil that had built up, and what impact low oil prices would have on major producers such as Saudi Arabia. We tried to analyse whether low prices would force Saudi Arabia to reform its economy and politics to become less dependent on oil.

    Fast forward a few years and by 2002, oil prices had begun their relentless rise to a peak of more than $140 per barrel by July 2008. After a brief hiatus during the global financial crisis prices remained above $100 per barrel for more than three years between 2011 and the first half of 2014.

    Since then, oil prices have fallen by more than 70 percent, thanks to the shale revolution in North America and increases in energy efficiency in North America and Europe.

    In the late 1990s, we spent a lot of time talking about a world in which oil would never be scarce and expensive again. In the 2000s, there was renewed talk about peaking oil supplies and prices continuing to rise. Now we are back to talking about a glut and whether oil prices will ever recover.

    In my working life, I have lived through one complete oil industry cycle, from bust to boom and back again. If I am lucky enough to be working in this sector for another 20-25 years, I will probably witness at least one more complete cycle of boom and bust.

    The point is that the oil industry is inherently cyclical. Volatility is not just an incidental part of the oil industry. It is the industry’s defining characteristic.

    As chemical engineers, I am sure most of you will have studied control theory. By analogy, the oil industry is like a giant system or a biological community.

    In the long run, negative feedback mechanisms promote stability and convergence equilibrium. But the long run can be a very long time coming. In the short term, there are strong positive feedback elements, which can amplify rather than dampen price movements. The oil industry is always a wild ride because we are stuck in a succession of short terms.

    Because this is a cyclical industry, you should be wary of anyone who tells you they know with confidence what prices will be in 2 or 3 years time, let alone in 5 or 10 years. Price cycles are deep, long and unpredictable.

    Rex Tillerson, the chief executive of Exxon Mobil, the world’s largest investor-owned oil company, is nearing the end of his career (and he earns a lot more than I do). Here’s what he had to say about the oil price cycle in a Q&A with investors on Wednesday:

    “We’ve never been any good at predicting these [price] cycles, neither when they occur nor their duration. We don’t spend a lot of time even trying.

    “How the future is going to look, we take no particular view on it, other than to recognize that whatever it is today it will be different sometime in the future, and after that it will be different again.

    “In my nearly 41 years [with Exxon], that’s been my experience. I didn’t learn anything about my ability to foresee that. I learned a lot about how you deal with it.”

    The solution to the problem of cycling prices is not to create better forecasts but to build lots of flexibility and optionality into your business (and your career) to deal with the unexpected and the boom-bust cycle. We need to be humble as forecasters and recognise the severe limits on our ability to foretell the future.

    The big question tonight is “Does oil have a future?” None of us here knows. It depends on a host of factors and the time horizon we are talking about.

    Combustion of fossil fuels is gradually changing our climate. There are sufficient known resources of oil, gas, coal and other hydrocarbons available to us that we could cook the planet many times over before they run out.

    Global warming has become an important priority for policymakers and may imply strict limits on the consumption of oil and other fossil fuels in future, though the political will remains highly uncertain.

    But we do know that crude petroleum and especially the fuels refined from it are superb energy carriers with an attractive combination of being compact, easy to handle and with a high energy density, which make them very attractive in some applications, notably transportation.

    In the long term, oil could be replaced by electricity as a transportation fuel. Oil has already been largely replaced as a fuel for heating and power generation in the western world.

    Electric vehicles are already a reality and have been growing rapidly, at least until oil prices crashed, but their market penetration remains very small. Perhaps EVs will eventually replace petrol and diesel-powered cars and trucks, but any transition will take time.

    Grand energy transitions take decades. There have already been several grand fuel transitions, either completed or underway, from wood to coal and then oil, gas, nuclear and now renewables.

    But experience suggests energy transitions take 50 years or more. Oil is likely to remain a major transportation fuel, as well as a petrochemical feedstock, for the rest of my working lifetime, and probably for at least the first half of yours.

  4. #104

    Default

    Not Rex, but in one of my first jobs I had to deal with oil and gas forecasts and do some forecasts myself, and worse, watch people make billion dollar decisions using forecasts as inputs - without the huge caveats that should be a mandatory part of any forecast. (eg. This forecast is 100% guaranteed to be; NOT accurate.)

    People though will not accept that they really can't predict the future and so should insure themselves against some negative events or try not to take a path potentially leading to the same.

    i.e. A province that can't forecast oil prices should maybe hedge itself.


    Maybe it's all a psychological game. Hire people offering assurances, that speak with confidence and salesmanship, and hopefully have glorious academic or business credentials so you will feel good about decisions that you really know are no better than a flip of a coin.
    Last edited by KC; 11-03-2016 at 04:29 PM.

  5. #105

    Default Model 3 Tesla released

    Very cool:

    http://www.engadget.com/2016/04/01/t...3-first-drive/

    At a starting price of about 35k US, 0-60 in 6 seconds (base model), range of about 340km (base model - although I expect different our winter). First models end of 2017, about the size of a BMW 3 series.

    With well over 100,000 1,000 dollar deposits in the first day, Tesla has generated about 5 billion in deferred revenue to work with.

  6. #106

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Very cool:

    http://www.engadget.com/2016/04/01/t...3-first-drive/

    At a starting price of about 35k US, 0-60 in 6 seconds (base model), range of about 340km (base model - although I expect different our winter). First models end of 2017, about the size of a BMW 3 series.

    With well over 100,000 1,000 dollar deposits in the first day, Tesla has generated about 5 billion in deferred revenue to work with.
    Good for them. Hope they survive and prosper.

    However just drove the wife's Touareg to Canmore-Banff and back on 3/4 tank of diesel. That allowed us to eat where we chose and not at some fueling station. With our long on-ramps I didn't need its 0-60 acceleration a single time.

  7. #107
    highlander
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    Default

    Meanwhile your other car doesn't leave the city. That's Tesla's market.

  8. #108

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Very cool:

    http://www.engadget.com/2016/04/01/t...3-first-drive/

    At a starting price of about 35k US, 0-60 in 6 seconds (base model), range of about 340km (base model - although I expect different our winter). First models end of 2017, about the size of a BMW 3 series.

    With well over 100,000 1,000 dollar deposits in the first day, Tesla has generated about 5 billion in deferred revenue to work with.
    Good for them. Hope they survive and prosper.

    However just drove the wife's Touareg to Canmore-Banff and back on 3/4 tank of diesel. That allowed us to eat where we chose and not at some fueling station. With our long on-ramps I didn't need its 0-60 acceleration a single time.
    I too wish Tesla success, but...

    Based on chatting to a couple people with the Tesla S I expect this new Tesla to be successful to it's market in moderate climates but not extreme ones...battery tech is not there yet. But it will eventually get there.

    There are many places we will see electrics eventually, but there are many areas the old infernal combustion engine will continue along for decades to come.

    IMO

    T

  9. #109

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    Quote Originally Posted by highlander View Post
    Meanwhile your other car doesn't leave the city. That's Tesla's market.
    Actually my other car, a Subaru SUV last year did as far north as Peace River, as far south as Pincher Creek, west to Edson, east to Cold Lake and SE to the Hat. Then add trips to the trailer and the cabin.

    ...and i met my family in south west Alberta so it wasn't as if every trip was an either or decision. Both SUVs are sometimes in use as SUVs.
    Last edited by KC; 01-04-2016 at 09:02 AM.

  10. #110
    C2E Stole my Heart!!!!
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    I'll reserve judgement until the car's specs and features are finalized, and it actually goes on sale in 2018 or 19. I've been saying for awhile that I'd like my next car to be an electric or plug-in hybrid of some sort, and this may well be the one. The i8 is very tempting, but it's just not practical in terms of it's layout to be a daily driver. And the Model S/X are too big for my liking (and parking stall).

  11. #111

    Default

    I still think longer term fuel cells might be the better technology. I mean, think about something like gasoline alley, you would need a heck of a lot of superchargers to charge everyone on QE2 given how long they take. And, fuel cells work well in the cold, and can potentially scale up and power tractor trailers one day. Time will tell though.

    Even so, this Tesla might do very well, especially in warmer climes. BMW, Audi, and Mercedes might be very worried about this, I could see a potential 3 series BMW, Audi A4 or C series, instead buying a Tesla 3 as the fun car. That will hurt them, as those are their volume sellers. It's a lot more exciting than the Chevy bolt which is going after a more family oriented / commuter market like the Leaf tried - I think that's a harder sell.
    Last edited by moahunter; 01-04-2016 at 05:21 PM.

  12. #112

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    I still think longer term fuel cells might be the better technology. I mean, think about something like gasoline alley, you would need a heck of a lot of superchargers to charge everyone on QE2 given how long they take. And, fuel cells work well in the cold, and can potentially scale up and power tractor trailers one day. Time will tell though.

    Even so, this Tesla might do very well, especially in warmer climes. BMW, Audi, and Mercedes might be very worried about this, I could see a potential 3 series BMW, Audi A4 or C series, instead buying a Tesla 3 as the fun car. That will hurt them, as those are their volume sellers. It's a lot more exciting than the Chevy bolt which is going after a more family oriented / commuter market like the Leaf tried - I think that's a harder sell.
    Quick charge electric or the ability to rapidly switch out the battery pack may someday make electric highly desirable.

  13. #113

    Default

    Latest EIA Energy Outlook report release on 12 May, contains this longer term energy mix projection, which I find interesting:


  14. #114

    Default All Fossil Fuel Vehicles will Vanish in 8 Years

    Bold claims:

    http://business.financialpost.com/ne...g-the-industry

    No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.

    This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba. His report, with the deceptively bland title Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing spasms of anxiety in the established industries.

    Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.

    Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024.

  15. #115

    Default

    The timelines may be off but I 100% believe this is what will happen, and the general uninformed pro-oil people refuse to hear otherwise, while the industries they worship are desperately pivoting, either publicly or behind closed doors.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

  16. #116

    Default

    ^I don't think anyone thinks we will not eventually transition off fossil fuels for autos and trucks, into a clean energy source (either electric or hydrogen fuel cell). The problem is I think these estimates are way too optimistic, I thought for example that the Leaf, which I started this thread with eight years ago, was going to do better than it has (it is the most successful electric vehicle to date, but still absolutely minimal sales compared to gasoline). The idea that in the next 8 years we will shift, seems highly unlikely. I think its 30 to 40 years, the technology, while improving, just isn't competitive yet.
    Last edited by moahunter; 16-05-2017 at 11:49 AM.

  17. #117
    C2E Hard Core Contributor
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    Top_Dawg can assure you that planes, trains, and automobiles are going to be fueled by gasoline and diesel for a very long time to come.

  18. #118
    C2E Stole my Heart!!!!
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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    ^I don't think anyone thinks we will not eventually transition off fossil fuels for autos and trucks, into a clean energy source (either electric or hydrogen fuel cell). The problem is I think these estimates are way too optimistic, I thought for example that the Leaf, which I started this thread with eight years ago, was going to do better than it has (it is the most successful electric vehicle to date, but still absolutely minimal sales compared to gasoline). The idea that in the next 8 years we will shift, seems highly unlikely. I think its 30 to 40 years, the technology, while improving, just isn't competitive yet.
    The problem is more that Canada, and NA, are huge and with suburban and civic reality here involving considerable driving distances even for such things as commutes. In Europe, or many other places on the globe that are more densely populated and where people don't typically travel as far the hybrid or charge cars make more sense. This is a challenging country for them, especially with our winters which are not kind to any batteries.

    I think what proliferates first is time shared vehicle pools. I see that network expanding. A huge market for that from students, seniors, youth, or even families on a budget.
    "if god exists and he allowed that to happen, then its better that he doesn't exist"

  19. #119

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    Quote Originally Posted by Top_Dawg View Post


    Top_Dawg can assure you that planes, trains, and automobiles are going to be fueled by gasoline and diesel for a very long time to come.
    I can assure you that considering nearly every single automaker has a roadmap that includes every single model being at least partially electric by 2020 proves you wrong. And that's just what we see here in good old backwater North America. China and India are selling piles of electric cars. Cities in Europe are banning petrol cars from cities, today.

    You can pretend like it's not happening, but the world is moving on. It might move on faster elsewhere, but that will just make it hurt more when we decide to catch up.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

  20. #120

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    Quote Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    ^I don't think anyone thinks we will not eventually transition off fossil fuels for autos and trucks, into a clean energy source (either electric or hydrogen fuel cell). The problem is I think these estimates are way too optimistic, I thought for example that the Leaf, which I started this thread with eight years ago, was going to do better than it has (it is the most successful electric vehicle to date, but still absolutely minimal sales compared to gasoline). The idea that in the next 8 years we will shift, seems highly unlikely. I think its 30 to 40 years, the technology, while improving, just isn't competitive yet.
    The problem is more that Canada, and NA, are huge and with suburban and civic reality here involving considerable driving distances even for such things as commutes. In Europe, or many other places on the globe that are more densely populated and where people don't typically travel as far the hybrid or charge cars make more sense. This is a challenging country for them, especially with our winters which are not kind to any batteries.

    I think what proliferates first is time shared vehicle pools. I see that network expanding. A huge market for that from students, seniors, youth, or even families on a budget.
    Yes, batteries don't work as well in our colder climate, but most of the North American population lives in places that have a milder climate than in the Canadian mid west. For instance, California has a milder climate and a lot of cars. If they start to switch away from gasoline engines that will affect oil demand big time.

  21. #121

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    ^I don't think anyone thinks we will not eventually transition off fossil fuels for autos and trucks, into a clean energy source (either electric or hydrogen fuel cell). The problem is I think these estimates are way too optimistic, I thought for example that the Leaf, which I started this thread with eight years ago, was going to do better than it has (it is the most successful electric vehicle to date, but still absolutely minimal sales compared to gasoline). The idea that in the next 8 years we will shift, seems highly unlikely. I think its 30 to 40 years, the technology, while improving, just isn't competitive yet.
    The problem is more that Canada, and NA, are huge and with suburban and civic reality here involving considerable driving distances even for such things as commutes. In Europe, or many other places on the globe that are more densely populated and where people don't typically travel as far the hybrid or charge cars make more sense. This is a challenging country for them, especially with our winters which are not kind to any batteries.

    I think what proliferates first is time shared vehicle pools. I see that network expanding. A huge market for that from students, seniors, youth, or even families on a budget.
    Yes, batteries don't work as well in our colder climate, but most of the North American population lives in places that have a milder climate than in the Canadian mid west. For instance, California has a milder climate and a lot of cars. If they start to switch away from gasoline engines that will affect oil demand big time.
    The battery's on my drones work better when it's cold , for charging discharging. they don't over heat

  22. #122

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chmilz View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Top_Dawg View Post


    Top_Dawg can assure you that planes, trains, and automobiles are going to be fueled by gasoline and diesel for a very long time to come.
    I can assure you that considering nearly every single automaker has a roadmap that includes every single model being at least partially electric by 2020 proves you wrong.
    That was under Obama's emission standards, and those standards only applied to cars, and the expectation is they will be dropped (as they have perversely raised the costs of cars, which has pushed consumers into SUV's and Trucks). If you actually look at what's happening, sales of SUV's and Trucks are soaring at the moment, there aren't many hybrid versions of those (and the one's there are, don't get that much better mileage than gasoline).

  23. #123

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Chmilz View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Top_Dawg View Post


    Top_Dawg can assure you that planes, trains, and automobiles are going to be fueled by gasoline and diesel for a very long time to come.
    I can assure you that considering nearly every single automaker has a roadmap that includes every single model being at least partially electric by 2020 proves you wrong.
    That was under Obama's emission standards, and those standards only applied to cars, and the expectation is they will be dropped (as they have perversely raised the costs of cars, which has pushed consumers into SUV's and Trucks). If you actually look at what's happening, sales of SUV's and Trucks are soaring at the moment, there aren't many hybrid versions of those (and the one's there are, don't get that much better mileage than gasoline).
    And you had a hybrid.

    Still, all it will take is an improvement in battery technology to trigger major change. Who really loves gas over electric?

    Tesla battery expert says they've doubled lithium-ion battery cell life

    https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-doub...ery-cell-life/



    Batteries Have Gotten Better, but There's Still Room for Improvement - Scientific American

    "The third important point: Batteries havebeen getting better over the decades. The reason we don't notice is that our devices have been getting faster, more powerful and more power-hungry at the same time. Heck, if you could put a modern iPhone battery into a 1995 phone, it'd probably go a year on a single charge."

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...r-improvement/

    Last edited by KC; 17-05-2017 at 06:43 PM.

  24. #124

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Bold claims:

    http://business.financialpost.com/ne...g-the-industry

    No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.

    This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba. His report, with the deceptively bland title Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing spasms of anxiety in the established industries.

    Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.

    Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024.
    In what I would say is a pretty strong corroboration of that man's claims: Ford tosses Mark Fields and installs tech-industry insider Jim Hackett as CEO.

    Hackett is also charged with ensuring Ford’s preparations for a future based more on broad mobility solutions and less on personal car ownership stay on target.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

  25. #125

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Chmilz View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Bold claims:

    http://business.financialpost.com/ne...g-the-industry

    No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.

    This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba. His report, with the deceptively bland title Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing spasms of anxiety in the established industries.

    Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.

    Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024.
    In what I would say is a pretty strong corroboration of that man's claims: Ford tosses Mark Fields and installs tech-industry insider Jim Hackett as CEO.

    Hackett is also charged with ensuring Ford’s preparations for a future based more on broad mobility solutions and less on personal car ownership stay on target.
    Yeah, insightful. In the coming world of greater income inequality, massive government debt overhang, generic product offerings, etc. people may not be able to buy outright, nor want to buy outright, so they will rent.

  26. #126

    Default

    Every single automaker has a roadmap to electric and automation. The writing is on the wall. You won't need to own a car when you can hit a button and the closest available car shows up in minutes or seconds, drops you off, and disappears. It's electric, so it's not burning fossil fuels, you don't need to worry about parking, you don't need insurance, nothing. Carrying assorted junk on your person for car rides will require some minor change in behavior, but we'll adapt.

    Hyundai made a big leap just the other day.

    The all-inclusive pricing deal, called Ioniq Unlimited+... priced at $275, $305, and $365 per month respectively... there are no acquisition or exit fees... no variables such as the money factors and options... Hyundai includes all taxes, dealer fees, and registration charges and offers unlimited mileage for 36 months... the car will upload its own mileage and charging stats to Hyundai, which credits the lessor’s monthly bill for charging costs incurred during the lease term. All scheduled maintenance is included in the price, including certain wear items such as wiper blades.


    $300 per month lease with unlimited mileage, includes all fees, includes your fuel, and even includes some consumables like wiper blades.
    "Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction" - Blaise Pascal

  27. #127

    Default

    Hahahaha.

    Turns out it's looking like Exxon actually cooked the books on their Canadian oil sands projects & made them seem like wise investments in external investor communications, though their own internal accounting showed that they'd make no money on the project.

    According to the attorney general, Exxon was assuring its investors that it was using a “proxy cost” for GHGs, including any fees or penalties that governments might impose to mitigate the impact of climate change, to calculate the viability of certain investments. However, the filing claims the company directed its employees to ignore the proxy cost or apply it in unrealistic ways to make those investments seem better than they were. "Exxon's own documents suggest that if Exxon had applied the proxy cost it promised to shareholders, at least one substantial oil sands project may have projected a financial loss, rather than a profit, over the course of the project’s original timeline," the filing claims.

    The attorney general also claimed that “Exxon may still be in the midst of perpetrating an ongoing fraudulent scheme on investors and the public."
    source: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...e-change-risk/ (emphasis mine)

    And from the AG filing itself:

    OAG’s present subpoenas, which Exxon now seeks to quash, are highly relevant to determining whether Exxon has in fact been misleading investors, as its own documents suggest. The subpoena duces tecum seeks targeted information and documents needed to fill the gaps in the existing document productions concerning Exxon’s risk-management practices related to the company’s investments and asset valuations. The testimony of the records witnesses is critical to understanding and potentially remedying Exxon’s still-unaccounted-for destruction of documents from key custodians, including the company’s former Chairman and CEO. The testimony of the fact witness from Imperial is highly relevant to OAG’s investigation given that Exxon’s documents reflect that he was directed by Exxon not to apply a proxy cost of GHGs to its Canadian oil sands projects.
    source: https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-conte...AG-v-Exxon.pdf

    And this is on top of the whole Tillerson/Tracker email boogaloo too, where the former CEO/current Secretary of State had a second email address under an assumed name & may have used it to circumvent/obstruct investigations & information retention policies.
    Giving less of a damn than ever… Can't laugh at the ignorant if you ignore them!

  28. #128

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Chmilz View Post
    Every single automaker has a roadmap to electric and automation. The writing is on the wall. You won't need to own a car when you can hit a button and the closest available car shows up in minutes or seconds, drops you off, and disappears. It's electric, so it's not burning fossil fuels, you don't need to worry about parking, you don't need insurance, nothing. Carrying assorted junk on your person for car rides will require some minor change in behavior, but we'll adapt.

    Hyundai made a big leap just the other day.

    The all-inclusive pricing deal, called Ioniq Unlimited+... priced at $275, $305, and $365 per month respectively... there are no acquisition or exit fees... no variables such as the money factors and options... Hyundai includes all taxes, dealer fees, and registration charges and offers unlimited mileage for 36 months... the car will upload its own mileage and charging stats to Hyundai, which credits the lessor’s monthly bill for charging costs incurred during the lease term. All scheduled maintenance is included in the price, including certain wear items such as wiper blades.


    $300 per month lease with unlimited mileage, includes all fees, includes your fuel, and even includes some consumables like wiper blades.
    Yes indeed, but how about the whole story the motivation and the corporate/government subsidies needed to make it work?

    From the article:
    What’s the catch? You’ll need to plunk down $2500, which the state of California then refunds to you as a rebate for purchasing any new electric car.


    But with gas prices so low, electric cars (that aren’t Teslas) aren’t exactly flying off the shelves, so Hyundai, which must sell them to satisfy tough California emissions requirements, needs to move these Ioniqs.


    So in reality this simply a corporately subsidized (from profits on conventional vehicle sales) sales program combined with goverment subsidization to they can sell more of the vehicles people really want due to government forced regulation.

    In short ... the people buying conventional Hyundias and the tax payer are paying for the losses incurred on the electric lease program. That cannot likley be maintained over the long term.
    IMO
    Last edited by Thomas Hinderks; 03-06-2017 at 09:11 AM.

  29. #129

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chmilz View Post
    Every single automaker has a roadmap to electric and automation. The writing is on the wall. You won't need to own a car when you can hit a button and the closest available car shows up in minutes or seconds, drops you off, and disappears. It's electric, so it's not burning fossil fuels, you don't need to worry about parking, you don't need insurance, nothing. Carrying assorted junk on your person for car rides will require some minor change in behavior, but we'll adapt.

    Hyundai made a big leap just the other day.

    The all-inclusive pricing deal, called Ioniq Unlimited+... priced at $275, $305, and $365 per month respectively... there are no acquisition or exit fees... no variables such as the money factors and options... Hyundai includes all taxes, dealer fees, and registration charges and offers unlimited mileage for 36 months... the car will upload its own mileage and charging stats to Hyundai, which credits the lessor’s monthly bill for charging costs incurred during the lease term. All scheduled maintenance is included in the price, including certain wear items such as wiper blades.


    $300 per month lease with unlimited mileage, includes all fees, includes your fuel, and even includes some consumables like wiper blades.
    I think car sharing has possibilities, but if would have to be at a much lower cost than car payments or leasing to attract much interest. If my car payments are $300/mo., for sharing where I only use 1/2 time I would probably expect half that, say $150.

    The tech world is full of great ideas, but if you want the public to adopt them it also has to be a good deal. There is a lot of hype, but things that are not a good deal are just that.

  30. #130

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dave View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Chmilz View Post
    Every single automaker has a roadmap to electric and automation. The writing is on the wall. You won't need to own a car when you can hit a button and the closest available car shows up in minutes or seconds, drops you off, and disappears. It's electric, so it's not burning fossil fuels, you don't need to worry about parking, you don't need insurance, nothing. Carrying assorted junk on your person for car rides will require some minor change in behavior, but we'll adapt.

    Hyundai made a big leap just the other day.

    The all-inclusive pricing deal, called Ioniq Unlimited+... priced at $275, $305, and $365 per month respectively... there are no acquisition or exit fees... no variables such as the money factors and options... Hyundai includes all taxes, dealer fees, and registration charges and offers unlimited mileage for 36 months... the car will upload its own mileage and charging stats to Hyundai, which credits the lessor’s monthly bill for charging costs incurred during the lease term. All scheduled maintenance is included in the price, including certain wear items such as wiper blades.


    $300 per month lease with unlimited mileage, includes all fees, includes your fuel, and even includes some consumables like wiper blades.
    I think car sharing has possibilities, but if would have to be at a much lower cost than car payments or leasing to attract much interest. If my car payments are $300/mo., for sharing where I only use 1/2 time I would probably expect half that, say $150.

    The tech world is full of great ideas, but if you want the public to adopt them it also has to be a good deal. There is a lot of hype, but things that are not a good deal are just that.
    Yeah we all love sharing public toilets too.
    First car with weird smells, odd stains, used diapers or various paraphernalia on the floor will tend to sway people slightly towards the ownership option

  31. #131

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    This is pretty cool - by the same people who were involved in designing Tesla, the Lucid Air:



    http://www.businessinsider.com/lucid...audio-system-1

  32. #132
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    $52,500..no thanks, it looks nice though

  33. #133
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    I read somewhere that there are roughly 30,000 EV's here in Canada and about 1400 charging stations here in Edmonton.

    The autonomous car is coming to Edmonton folks, eventually.

    http://www.metronews.ca/news/edmonto...riverless.html
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  34. #134

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    Interesting:

    "At best they have a decade"



    OPEC and Big Oil thought they had 50 years. At best they have a decade

    The Telegraph, August 2, 2017


    He says the technology is moving so fast that the British ban will be overtaken long before 2040 by pure market forces. Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary, might just as well ban horse-drawn carriages. There won’t be any petrol or diesel cars left on the road anyway. Prof. Seba thinks EVs will reach cost parity by 2022 as prices fall below US$20,000 (versus $24,000 for the average oil-based car today). Thereafter they will sweep the field on cost alone. With far fewer moving parts and a potential lifespan of half a million miles, they will render the combustion engine obsolete.

    It is what happened to Kodak when digital cameras appeared. The end was swift and brutal. OPEC will hear none of this. It allows that renewable energy may be a threat to coal but insists that it cannot seriously menace transport fuel. It says fossil fuels will make up 77 per cent of world energy supply in 2040, exactly the same share as today, and the Paris Agreement be damned.

    ..."

    http://business.financialpost.com/co...0-96677f938b6a
    Last edited by KC; 07-08-2017 at 04:15 PM.

  35. #135

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    ^I think we will transition off carbon based fuels in time, but these predictions of a sudden shift are very naďve. I just don't believe your average American buying an F150 is going to shift in the next two or three years, even the next decade, to an electric vehicle no matter how cheap it gets. And, I don't think it will get that cheap. There are some key flaws to me in these types of predictions:

    1. Some predictions are that people won't need to own anymore / will just "order" a driverless vehicle. I don't think that's what people want, a family vehicle is freedom.
    2. Reliability - electric motors are more reliable, but how often does a combustion engine break down today? Its very rare - most vehicle faults are in the electronics / entertainment systems now. That's why Tesla has some of the worst reliability even though its electric.
    3. Cost - batteries are coming down, but they use a lot of materials. There is some evidence an electric car is more carbon intensive. The idea of a sudden technology wave is going to make batteries dirt cheap is strange when you consider electric vehicles are over a 100 years old.
    4. Practicality - I don't think the issue of charging is solved. It takes a few minutes to fuel up at a gas station. If there are 30 or 40 thousand cars going from Edmonton to Calgary and back each day, how many superchargers that take 30 minutes rather than 5 minutes do you need? Its an exponential problem, not a major issue for the occasional Tesla but it will be a concern on mass adoption.
    5. Performance - electric vehicles can get great performance over short distances, but over longer distances, there is a limit to the speeds that can be obtained while still maintaining range - if you burn to 100 in 3 seconds you won't get 300km's. In the Formula E they have to change the vehicles to finish the race.

    When the Leaf came out and I started this thread, I thought it was going to take a big share of the market. That simply hasn't happened, at best its only a tiny niche that is adopting electric. While the Tesla 3 is interesting, I'm not convinced it will be the game changer some are claiming, anymore than the Leaf has been.
    Last edited by moahunter; 09-08-2017 at 05:00 PM.

  36. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    ^I think we will transition off carbon based fuels in time, but these predictions of a sudden shift are very naďve. I just don't believe your average American buying an F150 is going to shift in the next two or three years, even the next decade, to an electric vehicle no matter how cheap it gets. And, I don't think it will get that cheap. There are some key flaws to me in these types of predictions:

    1. Some predictions are that people won't need to own anymore / will just "order" a driverless vehicle. I don't think that's what people want, a family vehicle is freedom.
    2. Reliability - electric motors are more reliable, but how often does a combustion engine break down today? Its very rare - most vehicle faults are in the electronics / entertainment systems now. That's why Tesla has some of the worst reliability even though its electric.
    3. Cost - batteries are coming down, but they use a lot of materials. There is some evidence an electric car is more carbon intensive. The idea of a sudden technology wave is going to make batteries dirt cheap is strange when you consider electric vehicles are over a 100 years old.
    4. Practicality - I don't think the issue of charging is solved. It takes a few minutes to fuel up at a gas station. If there are 30 or 40 thousand cars going from Edmonton to Calgary and back each day, how many superchargers that take 30 minutes rather than 5 minutes do you need? Its an exponential problem, not a major issue for the occasional Tesla but it will be a concern on mass adoption.
    5. Performance - electric vehicles can get great performance over short distances, but over longer distances, there is a limit to the speeds that can be obtained while still maintaining range - if you burn to 100 in 3 seconds you won't get 300km's. In the Formula E they have to change the vehicles to finish the race.

    When the Leaf came out and I started this thread, I thought it was going to take a big share of the market. That simply hasn't happened, at best its only a tiny niche that is adopting electric. While the Tesla 3 is interesting, I'm not convinced it will be the game changer some are claiming, anymore than the Leaf has been.
    http://www.wbur.org/bostonomix/2017/...f-driving-cars


  37. #137
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    The autonomous vehicle is coming, whether some like it or not:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...ffic-1.4150166

    Its the insurance industry and advocacy groups like AAIRB that are going to need to adapt. I like the autonomous cars because they have the potential to dramatically reduce Collison rates. Good for pedestrians bad for lawyers. I'm not suggesting autonomous cars will appear here in Edmonton overnight, but hybrid vehicles might be here within 5-10 years.

    Autonomous cars etc will have a huge impact on the oil industry and will see profits drop substantially over the next 3-10 years. The years of $100 oil are gone.

    IMO
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  38. #138

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    'Self-driving car' actually controlled by man dressed up as a car seat

    https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...ech-university
    I feel in no way entitled to your opinion...

  39. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    The autonomous vehicle is coming, whether some like it or not:

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...ffic-1.4150166

    Its the insurance industry and advocacy groups like AAIRB that are going to need to adapt. I like the autonomous cars because they have the potential to dramatically reduce Collison rates. Good for pedestrians bad for lawyers. I'm not suggesting autonomous cars will appear here in Edmonton overnight, but hybrid vehicles might be here within 5-10 years.

    Autonomous cars etc will have a huge impact on the oil industry and will see profits drop substantially over the next 3-10 years. The years of $100 oil are gone.

    IMO
    3-19. I think near to 7- 10. Planes, transport trucks, they will need oil for a long time,

  40. #140

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post

    Autonomous cars etc will have a huge impact on the oil industry and will see profits drop substantially over the next 3-10 years. The years of $100 oil are gone.

    IMO
    Why? If Apple or Google or BMW or Ford or whoever, perfect autonomous technology, why won't that work with gasoline vehicles? I think you will find combustion engines will be a major user of such technologies - e.g. long Haul tractor trailers.

    I think electrification and autonomous technology don't have to be bundled together - they are both coming, but they won't necessarily be on the same time line.

  41. #141
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    ^ Hybrid vehicles are already here, albeit not as ubiquitous as some would like. Autonomous vehicle technology is within our grasp. We have the infrastructure here already so why can't Alberta have our own version of the autonomous vehicle? Or other Province or even cities?

    We have 4 different things going on here:

    Current fossil fuel vehicles (status quo)

    Hybrid fossil fuel/ev,

    Electric vehicles

    Autonomous vehicles
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  42. #142

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    Autonomous vehicles can be any of the three fuel types.

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