Results 1 to 27 of 27

Thread: The Big Shift: Conservatives poised for decades of power in Ottawa, pollsterís book

  1. #1

    Default The Big Shift: Conservatives poised for decades of power in Ottawa, pollsterís book

    According to the authors of The Big Shift, many people ó especially the central Canadian ďelitesĒ who once set the national agenda ó donít realize how much the country has changed.

    A coalition of influence and power has shifted to the West and Ontario suburbs, where the Tories are strong.

    Waves of immigration, much of it from Asia, have brought conservative values.

    And Quebec ó with all the associated hand-wringing about national unity ó no longer captures the nationís attention like it once did.
    http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/02...wer-in-ottawa/

    Nothing surprising here I think. The opposition either appeal to elite academic types who think Ottawa knows best (Liberals), or low income types desperate for free hand outs (NDP). But for the bulk of Canada, the middle class, the Conservatives represent their values.

  2. #2
    C2E Posting Power
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Edmonton
    Posts
    702

    Default

    Perhaps. Though, in fairness, the National Post's editors and owners would lick Harper's shoes clean if given the chance. I'm sure there's some equally pro-liberal article on the Globe and Mail.

    I would agree that the conservatives have done a good job at moving away from their older hardline conservative values to appeal to the mass middle class. But I think your judgement on the other two parties is a little scripted in conservative dogma. Personally I don't like any of the three parties. But I also see very little difference between the conservatives of this last decade and the liberals of the 90s in their Ottawa-centric mentality. It's just the nature of the beast. The conservatives pushing their crime bills photocopied from 19th century US law books and the liberals pushing their boondoggle long gun registry, amount to the same patronizing nanny state politics as far as I'm concerned.

    And while the NDP do genuinely scare me with their economic platforms (particularly as a business owner and Albertan), I can respect that they are do offer the promise of doing business in Ottawa much differently than the other two parties. Particularly with their promises to scrap the senate and move to a proportional representation voting system. So I think there's a good number of people, besides just those looking for "free handouts," that support them.

    Not saying the article is wrong, I could very well see the conservatives sticking around for a while. I just think the picture is more complex than the tired rhetoric of Liberals being elitist and NDP being hippy communists. In my view at least.

  3. #3
    Becoming a C2E Power Poster
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    Edmonton
    Posts
    161

    Default

    Wishful thinking.

  4. #4

    Default

    I'd look at policy instead.
    Live and love... your neighbourhood.

  5. #5

    Default

    What a silly silly article. It really comes down to appealing to suburban voters, which the Liberals have failed to do with recent leaders, and the NDP will never be able to do. It is increasingly important to connect with these voters. The Conservative party is Harper, he's not going to be around another decade. Who's next in line? Whoever it is has big shoes to fill and most likely wont be as effective as a leader for that party as he is.

    If Garneau or Findlay become Liberal leader then the Conservatives are in a lot of trouble immediately. If Trudeau becomes leader then the NDP support will plummet and the Conservatives will lose a lot of support as well.
    Go down a few dark alleys.

  6. #6
    C2E Hard Core Contributor
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Edmonton, AB
    Posts
    2,520

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    elite academic types who think Ottawa knows best (Liberals), or low income types desperate for free hand outs (NDP). But for the bulk of Canada, the middle class, the Conservatives represent their values.
    What is most surprising to me is how many "low income types" vote conservative or don't vote at all.

    I would heartily disagree that this is the NDPs primary area of support.

    read this article and you'll see what I mean: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...toric-families

  7. #7

    Default

    Three months before the election that handed power to the Conservatives, the Globe and Mail ran a whole series about the death of Conservatism in Canada.

  8. #8

    Default

    ^this article is in the national post, and like it or not, it is by a pollster who is looking at voting trends. I think in a way Truedau understands it, you see him for example, sucking up to the oil sands a bit (while still keeping a hand in the other pocket by being against BC pipeline) - he knows the west is important, and jobs are important. What I am not so sure about is whether he would reinforce that the Liberals as an eliitst party (ruled by the priveleged child of a former PM), or whether he can somehow connect with the suburban middle classes.

    The Conservatives have there weak spots (and no, crime isn't one of them) - I think the key to beating them would be to present a fiscally conservative platform (aka Paul Martin), to soften the "Ottawa knows best / centralized" approach of the Liberals to allow the provinces the freedom they have under the Conservatives, but perhaps hit the Conservatives with things like legalizing durgs, prostitution and similar, moving away from the queen, etc., which IMO appeals to a lot of the middle class.

  9. #9

    Default

    If you vote for a Conservative party, who in exchange for getting into power moves their platform ever more to the centre... What was the point of voting conservative?!

    We need the reform party back! Lol
    "Do you give people who already use transit a better service, or do you build it where they don't use it in the hopes they might start to use it?" Nenshi

  10. #10
    I'd rather C2E than work!
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Edmonton (Norwood)
    Posts
    4,447

    Default

    ^^ How is adopting American crime policies that the Americans themselves are slowly dismantling because they don't work not a weak spot for the Conservatives?

  11. #11

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post

    The Conservatives have there weak spots (and no, crime isn't one of them) - I think the key to beating them would be to present a fiscally conservative platform (aka Paul Martin), to soften the "Ottawa knows best / centralized" approach of the Liberals to allow the provinces the freedom they have under the Conservatives, but perhaps hit the Conservatives with things like legalizing durgs, prostitution and similar, moving away from the queen, etc., which IMO appeals to a lot of the middle class.
    There is a role for a strong central govt. but that govt should be concerned with the roles spelled out for it under the constitutional act.

    The federal govt should not be in the biz of funding rec centres and community league halls for example
    "Do you give people who already use transit a better service, or do you build it where they don't use it in the hopes they might start to use it?" Nenshi

  12. #12

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Titanium48 View Post
    ^^ How is adopting American crime policies that the Americans themselves are slowly dismantling because they don't work not a weak spot for the Conservatives?
    Polls consistently show most Canadians would rather have violent criminals behind bars, than on the streets, this is a strong spot for the Conservatives. Interestingly, Layton was also in favor of longer sentences for violent criminals. I know some academic types are hung up on ideas about "reforming people" but the truth of the matter is, that somebody violent can't hurt the general public when they are behind bars (regardless of whether or not long sentences deter violence).

    The poll found that 46 per cent of respondents believe crime rates are declining; up 9 per cent from a poll last year that asked the same question. The same number – 46 per cent – feel that crime rates are on the rise, down 6 per cent from last year’s poll.

    Sixty-three per cent of respondents preferred crime prevention over law enforcement, the highest level recorded since Environics began to ask the question in 1994.

    The poll, however, found that six out of 10 Canadians support a proposed federal omnibus crime bill increasing the length of jail time for some offences and reducing judicial discretion on sentencing. Mr. Neuman of Environics said the finding is consistent with the increasingly nuanced public perspective.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...article542609/

    If your policies are supported by 60% of people, that's a strong spot (and a weak spot for those whose polices are supported by the remaining 40%). The Conservatives hit the suburban middle class democratic perfectly with this. Again, don't be surprised if Truedau, when he comes up with a policy on this (if he ever does), also supports long sentences (but also likely, more "Crime prevention", whatever that means).
    Last edited by moahunter; 24-02-2013 at 09:19 AM.

  13. #13

    Default

    In the short time I've been paying attention to federal politics I've seen PC majorities reduced to a rump. Gigantic Liberal majorities crumble. Successful new parties created specifically to swallow their tail. And of course I've had to endure the unflagging electoral optimism of parliament's boy scouts: the NDP.
    The Big Shift -- buy it now or wait until it shows up at Value Village for a buck 99.

  14. #14

    Default

    All I have for that is a big "meh." Pollsters, including Ipsos Reid, completely blew it in the last Alberta election and I don't put much stock in what they're saying lately.

    A bigger factor in the recent Conservative dominance is vote-splitting to the left of centre between the Liberals and NDP. Just like Chretien was able to achieve successive electoral victories in part due to vote-splitting between the PCs and Reform/Alliance.

    I'd also point out that while Harper has tacked right overall, he's softened a lot of the typical conservative stances (e.g., regarding fiscal restraint, abortion, etc.) in order to appeal to a larger number of voters.

  15. #15
    C2E Continued Contributor
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    YEG
    Posts
    1,502

    Default

    We can only hope the Conservatives fall and the NDP rise to power in the next election.

  16. #16

    Default

    Meh. Conservatives motto is to lock up anyone who would vote against them.

    Either way im not to worried. With Trudeau on the rise I can see more minority governments if anything with the Cons.

    I just hope that Trudeau rise doesnt come soley at the hands of the NDP.
    youtube.com/BrothersGrim
    facebook.com/BrothersGrimMusic

  17. #17

    Default

    ^Currently, the increase in Liberal support is coming from both sides (roughly 2/3 from the NDP and 1/3 from the Conservatives). Those percentages will change depending on the leader that is selected.
    Go down a few dark alleys.

  18. #18

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by GranaryMan View Post
    We can only hope the Conservatives fall and the NDP rise to power in the next election.
    I like how you say "we" - as if everyone (or even a majority of people) actually agree with you.

  19. #19

    Default

    Well, Quebec MP Claude Padry just defected from the NDP to the Bloc.

    I think the leadership changes will see the NDP go down the crapper in Quebec next election at the expense of gains by the Libs and the Bloc. Mulcair just isn't as likeable as Jack was. And with 18 new seats in Western Canada next election, and if Harper continues to keep his MPs in line and doesn't make any huge mistakes over the next two years, it shouldn't surprise anyone to see another Conservative majority.

  20. #20

    Default

    I agree the NDP will fall apart.
    The NDP will be back to third party status next election. Their time as official opposition was kind of cute, like when a kid pushes his fake bubble lawnmower besides daddy's lawnmower and thinks he's helping.

    Most of their gains in Quebec was lent from the separatist and leeching some support from the Liberals. Outside of Quebec the combination of the weakness of Ignatieff and the likability of "Jack" propelled them beyond the Liberals.
    I don't think the Conservatives will win a majority though. People are getting sick of Harper and want an alternative... I've talked to hundreds of people in the last few weeks and I get the sense that even in Alberta, people are ready for a change. But someone who voted Conservative is not going to switch to the NDP...
    Last edited by mnugent; 28-02-2013 at 10:21 AM.
    Go down a few dark alleys.

  21. #21

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mnugent View Post
    I've talked to hundreds of people in the last few weeks and I get the sense that even in Alberta, people are ready for a change. But someone who voted Conservative is not going to switch to the NDP...
    I haven't talked to hundreds of people in the last few weeks about politics (you must be popular, not), but I disagree. I don't think most people follow politics most of the time (esp in Alberta). As long as government is not interfering in their lives, and life is good (which it is right now for so many despite global recession), most won't want change IMO. If some massive scandal occured (like adscam), maybe, but I don't think conservatives have been in majority power long enough yet to get as corrupt, as say, the former liberal government, or the pcs here in Alberta.

  22. #22

    Default

    Voter apathy.
    Live and love... your neighbourhood.

  23. #23

    Default

    bump.

    We live in the future, huh?

    lol.
    Let's make Edmonton better.

  24. #24

    Default

    ^I've read a lot of your posts. I'm not even sure you live in the present.
    Gone............................and very quickly forgotten may I add.

  25. #25

    Default

    <snicker> Okay man, lie back on your couch, relax, and tell me about your "big shift".


    Let's make Edmonton better.

  26. #26
    C2E Hard Core Contributor
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    asia
    Posts
    2,423

    Default

    I've read The Big Shift. A number of the predicitons Ibbitson and Bricker made didn't come true. For example, they said(if I recall correctly) that the PQ would probably win the next(from the time of writing) Quebec election. And they went on this slightly condescending spiel about how Alberta is this right-wing, quasi-American place, where the left doesn't have much of a chance for any success(in fairness, not many people foresaw the 2015 provincial election results). And, while they didn't explicitly state that the Liberals would lose the next(from time of writing) election, the overall impression you get from their thesis is one of never-ending Conservative hegemony(as opposed to the reality right now, where there seems no reason to assume the Liberals won't win another majority next time).

    One thing they did call pretty accurately was that the Conservatives would maintain their dominance in southern Ontario, which they pretty much did. And since Conservative hegemony over that particular region is a big part of the foundation for their theory, I guess that is pretty significant.

  27. #27

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by moahunter View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by mnugent View Post
    I've talked to hundreds of people in the last few weeks and I get the sense that even in Alberta, people are ready for a change. But someone who voted Conservative is not going to switch to the NDP...
    I haven't talked to hundreds of people in the last few weeks about politics (you must be popular, not), but I disagree. I don't think most people follow politics most of the time (esp in Alberta). As long as government is not interfering in their lives, and life is good (which it is right now for so many despite global recession), most won't want change IMO. If some massive scandal occured (like adscam), maybe, but I don't think conservatives have been in majority power long enough yet to get as corrupt, as say, the former liberal government, or the pcs here in Alberta.
    In hindsight, I think the centrist parties can maybe get more corrupt and still last longer than less corrupt parties on either side.

    The pcs here almost won again but I think many saw their lives as soon not to be as good and the corruption was just too much for them. They didn't hugely participate in the boom times and then the pcs looked likely to make the average Albertans the sacrificial lambs to protect the big vested interests that had already made great boom time gains and backed the PCs over the years.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •