View Poll Results: Who do you THINK Edmonton's new mayor will be?

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  • Kerry Diotte

    8 12.31%
  • Don Iveson

    41 63.08%
  • Karen Liebovici

    16 24.62%
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Thread: Who do you think wil be Edmonton's next mayor?

  1. #1
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    Default Who do you think wil be Edmonton's next mayor?

    The question is who do you THINK Edmonton's new mayor will be? The question is NOT Who do you HOPE the new mayor will be?
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  2. #2
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    I think Leibo will win, although I'm learning towards voting for Ivy. Still too early in the campaign to know for sure though.
    “You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012

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    I think one demographic to consider will be the 20-34 age group. Looking at the 2012 Edmonton census stats, they're the three largest.

    Whoever wins these votes will have a strong advantage.
    "Talk minus action equals zero." - Joe Keithley, D. O. A.

  4. #4

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    Karen will out fundraising everyone, but Don could win by sheer force of his volunteer base. Very interesting indeed.
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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Cat View Post
    I think one demographic to consider will be the 20-34 age group. Looking at the 2012 Edmonton census stats, they're the three largest.

    Whoever wins these votes will have a strong advantage.
    Silly observation considering this age demographic is the least likely to vote.

    I don't think the advantage is there given the apathy.
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    I have a sinking feeling Diotte will win as Karen and Don split the majority. :/

    However outside of that pessimism I think it's too tight to call right now. Liebovici has the money as witnessed by her campaign office and her comments at the developers forum. Iveson has a strong base but his campaign seems to be off to a weak start. Diotte has a lock on the disgruntled.

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    Iveson will win because I hear many Edmontonians will vote for him for the Mayor.
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  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    I have a sinking feeling Diotte will win as Karen and Don split the majority. :/

    However outside of that pessimism I think it's too tight to call right now. Liebovici has the money as witnessed by her campaign office and her comments at the developers forum. Iveson has a strong base but his campaign seems to be off to a weak start. Diotte has a lock on the disgruntled.
    Yeah, this board is typically not representative of who will get elected. Nor do the opinions here project results very well. One has to scan outside of the polarity here to get any kind of idea on who the popular candidates are.
    Mandel was of course different because he was so clearly the best candidate and easy front runner. Never a hard one to call. But this is a hard one to call with no ringers. Iveson would be but is he there yet?

    Leibovici imo hasn't done nearly enough in her longtime on council to elicit much support from me. Her body of work doesn't exactly bode for promotion. Moreso typifies a career politician. I don't want that, I want someone to take charge and be active.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    I have a sinking feeling Diotte will win as Karen and Don split the majority. :/

    However outside of that pessimism I think it's too tight to call right now. Liebovici has the money as witnessed by her campaign office and her comments at the developers forum. Iveson has a strong base but his campaign seems to be off to a weak start. Diotte has a lock on the disgruntled.
    For sure this is a real possibility but Top_Dawg doubts it will happen.

    If the polling shows this trend in any considerable way then one of the establishment candidates will be....how shall we say.....encouraged...to drop out and throw their support behind the other.

    Most likely scenario is that Iveson will get a little gift under the table to do like a good catholic and pull out, with the guarantee of a feather soft landing as well as commitments of support ( cold hard ca$h ) for when he runs four years from now.

    Real politika.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Top_Dawg View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    I have a sinking feeling Diotte will win as Karen and Don split the majority. :/

    However outside of that pessimism I think it's too tight to call right now. Liebovici has the money as witnessed by her campaign office and her comments at the developers forum. Iveson has a strong base but his campaign seems to be off to a weak start. Diotte has a lock on the disgruntled.
    For sure this is a real possibility but Top_Dawg doubts it will happen.

    If the polling shows this trend in any considerable way then one of the establishment candidates will be....how shall we say.....encouraged...to drop out and throw their support behind the other.

    Most likely scenario is that Iveson will get a little gift under the table to do like a good catholic and pull out, with the guarantee of a feather soft landing as well as commitments of support ( cold hard ca$h ) for when he runs four years from now.

    Real politika.

    I don't know, TD. Perhaps I lead a sheltered life but I'm not aware of that happening at the Municipal level. Provincial or Federal, yes.

    I am thinking it is a 2 way race, Don and Kerry. But it is still early and politics is a fickle little bird. After nomination day it gets interesting. It all depends on if the voters vote with their heads, their anger, or their feet.

  12. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Turnbull View Post
    I have a sinking feeling Diotte will win as Karen and Don split the majority. :/
    This.

    I think Liebovici and Diotte will be close... with Iveson will draw too much of Liebovici's vote for her to win.

    Of course the campaign has barely even begun yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by The_Cat View Post
    I think one demographic to consider will be the 20-34 age group. Looking at the 2012 Edmonton census stats, they're the three largest.

    Whoever wins these votes will have a strong advantage.
    Silly observation considering this age demographic is the least likely to vote.

    I don't think the advantage is there given the apathy.
    I think this is a chance for the younger generation to show they have a voice. They are Edmonton's future.

    Apathy is more generation oriented. People who don't vote will have kids that don't vote.
    "Talk minus action equals zero." - Joe Keithley, D. O. A.

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    Fake Twitter feed for Kerry Diotte.

    https://twitter.com/iDiotte_
    "Talk minus action equals zero." - Joe Keithley, D. O. A.

  15. #15

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    I'm hoping it's Iveson but I think Diotte will give everyone a run for their money. The supporters he has (blue hair, polyester pant, sit in Tim Horton's for 6 hours with one small coffee) are usually the ones that come out and vote.
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    Hard to say when we don't have any fundraising data to look at. I'm hopeful that Don can raise enough cash to fight in the air war -- I think he could/would win if he raises enough money to compete in that regard.

  17. #17

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    I don't think this race for mayor will come down to how much each contender has fund raised. Iveson/Liebovici/Diotte all have name recognition and they are the only contenders that will be focused on. The other contenders are not even distractions as no one recognizes them. Of the three main contenders, they all sat on council and people are going to draw from that. I should imagine of the people who do go out and vote most of them have already made up their minds about who they are going to vote for. It's not going to come down to how many radio sound bites or how many lawn signs each of them have. Unless there is some bozo eruption I should imagine it being a pretty tame campaign for the mayor's chair.
    Last edited by Gemini; 07-09-2013 at 01:37 PM.
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    I think that analysis overstates how much the average voter pays attention to city council, but it may be true of high-information voters. I'd be very curious to see some polling of this race, as I'd bet there's a fair amount of undecided/uncommitted voters at this point.

  19. #19

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    This is a two horse race.

    Between Iveson and Diotte. Both are capable of being personable, can schmooze, and stand in front of a microphone.

    I continue to get the impression Leibovici is a wallflower. Really the least likely leadership candidate next to Jane Batty or Loken (sp)

    Some people just weren't born to lead and no shame in that. Theres nothing in Leibovicis presence, body language, confidence, that speaks leadership. All the fancy posters, bright suits in the world and well funded campaign don't change that.

    That said its a municipal election and stranger things have happened. Just don't see it though.

    Plus that with Leibovici her whole time on council has been very much in the background. I don't even find that she's even very vocal in council proceedings. She's a shadow.
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    If voting was based solely on social media presence, Iveson would win at this point. Let's not discount that factor, because that is currently the best way of engaging younger voters. And Don easily outpaces his opponents in terms of twitter followers.

    That said...still early to say until we've seen more debates and more policy discussed
    “You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012

  21. #21

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    I have absolutely no idea, and it's funny, because I'm usually pretty good at gauging such things. I know who I want to win, but that's not what the question asks. So I'm leaving it blank for now. It feels like it could go any of three ways.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sonic Death Monkey View Post
    If voting was based solely on social media presence, Iveson would win at this point. Let's not discount that factor, because that is currently the best way of engaging younger voters. And Don easily outpaces his opponents in terms of twitter followers.

    That said...still early to say until we've seen more debates and more policy discussed
    I'd disagree on the social media front. Diotte has been extremely active on Twitter and Facebook than Iveson has. Iveson's online strength has been his blog, where he's covered his council activity over the year.

    I'm more interested in the sign counts, and where I am and have seen (Westmount, Glenora, and such) the signs are all Diotte or Liebovici. On size and numbers Liebovici is ahead there. I don't think I've seen a single Iveson sign yet.

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  23. #23

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    The Iveson signs will be up on September 15th. I'm sure you will start seeing lots.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mnugent View Post
    The Iveson signs will be up on September 15th. I'm sure you will start seeing lots.
    Which illustrates his other problem: funding. Based on how long it's taking him to get signs and his poor office location, I have to wonder how well his fund raising is going. Without an incumbent a lot of this election will rest on exposure and organization. Diotte and Liebovici are winning that race now. There are plenty of people likely still deciding where to place there votes and currently they're really only seeing two names.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  25. #25

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    That's quite presumptuous. Iveson is in the campaign office that Mandel used the last couple elections and it worked out fine for him.

    The truth is that people haven't decided who they are going to vote for yet, many are just starting to pay attention. I wouldn't read to much into the number of signs up six weeks before the election. Give it a few weeks until after people see how the candidates perform at the forums.
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    Not sure why you feel my opinions are inappropriate. I recognize I could be wrong, hope that I am wrong, but there's nothing in appropriate or presumptuous about voicing them.

    A note on the office location: An incumbent does not need prime space as they are already well known in the job. Incumbent's often have the easiest campaigns to run. In this race exposure is going be to critical and while Iveson may be able to make for lost time later but right now he is late out of the gate. A high traffic location would have been an asset in that as well.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  27. #27

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    I didn't say they were inappropriate. It's just that you're assuming that his campaign doesn't have lawn signs out because you think it lacks money, which isn't the case.

    It's much more likely a strategic move to put signs out later when they have the biggest bang. It's fine to think that is a poor strategy but it's not fair to attribute it to financial reasons.
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    Quote Originally Posted by mnugent View Post
    I didn't say they were inappropriate. It's just that you're assuming that his campaign doesn't have lawn signs out because you think it lacks money, which isn't the case.

    It's much more likely a strategic move to put signs out later when they have the biggest bang. It's fine to think that is a poor strategy but it's not fair to attribute it to financial reasons.

    Fair enough although I don't think it's presumptuous, in the absence of other information, to question Iveson's funds at this point and I do think if he's holding out on signs for strategic reasons that is a flawed strategy. His opponents are gaining a lot of exposure right now through office locations and advertising (signs) and I think he's going to have to work hard to make that up.

    BTW, the word has a fairly strong connotation.
    pre·sump·tu·ous
    (of a person or their behavior) Failing to observe the limits of what is permitted or appropriate.

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  29. #29

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    Haha don't want to quibble over the meaning of a word, I meant something along the lines "assuming something without knowing the cause". No worries
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    I was listening to the Executive Committee meeting this morning, and here are my thoughts on the current councilors who are running for Mayor:

    1) Kerry Diotte really didn't add anything or even ask any worthwhile questions at all. Might as well have not even been there.
    2) Karen Liebovici has good points, and asks the right questions, but in all honesty she could be telling me about a cure for cancer and I'd be hard pressed to not fall asleep. She's just so damn monotonous, which would be fine except that her questions are so long and plodding. A simple question or motion immediately turns into an excessively wordy ordeal.
    3) Don Iveson sounded confident and like he actually read/absorbed the material.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mnugent View Post
    Haha don't want to quibble over the meaning of a word, I meant something along the lines "assuming something without knowing the cause". No worries
    Apologies for being a little titchy. I probably need a little more sleep lately.

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    Hope someone smart, and good looking of course.

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    The problem with this thread is that folks seem to be misreading "Who do you think will be Edmonton's next mayor?" as "Who do you want to be Edmonton's next mayor?"

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    Quote Originally Posted by expat View Post
    The problem with this thread is that folks seem to be misreading "Who do you think will be Edmonton's next mayor?" as "Who do you want to be Edmonton's next mayor?"
    Why I haven't voted in the poll yet. Not enough information yet to call it.

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    The reality is that most candidates make their biggest moves or major statements about 2 weeks before the election as that's what most people can remember.

    I also would have no doubt Don has raised a fair amount of funds from the business community.

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