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Thread: Don't Fear Driverless Cars

  1. #101

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    My calculator is better and faster at math too but the leap to driverless cars is exponentially more difficult by several degrees. Chess has written rules, only 2 players on a fixed grid with 64 squares and standard strategies with no external forces.

    As I noted, in order to drive, drivers must adjust to rapidly changing conditions, thousands of interactions and variables. It took decades to program and develop the AI until a computer could beat a human consistently.

    Respectfully, your false comparison is comparing apples with the Titanic. In chess, if the computer loses, the person wins. In driving, if the computer loses, the driver dies.

    Think about that.
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  2. #102
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    There's a ton of a lot smarter people than either of us who have thought about it, and they've made incredible progress in a very short time over the last few years. Whether it's 2 years or 20, the age of primates controlling 2 tons of metal are coming to an end.

  3. #103

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    Don’t things that take decades to develop, tend to undergo compound advances in their final years? Look at the portable / mobile phone development over the four from the 1950s until the 1990s and then compare it to the two decades of the 1990s and 2000s.

    I don’t know if the numbers of variables are that great for the basic hurdles. Inputs - detect anything getting in the way, anything moving into the way, anything altering the road conditions and monitoring anything currently around the vehicle (other vehicles) and ?
    Responses: steering, brakes, speed and ?

    Photo recognition tech or recognition tech should build up massive databases of almost everything the sensors can encounter. Start interconnecting things and then even that hurdle disappears. Eg I am a cement truck and I’m just around the corner out of sight and approaching fast...
    Last edited by KC; 25-01-2018 at 07:45 AM.

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by KC
    Don’t things that take decades to develop, tend to undergo compound advances in their final years?


    Exactly. And we're seeing that happen in a multitude of different AI fields, from facial recognition software (which is leading to some pretty dystopian outcomes in China:
    http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-china-42248056/in-your-face-china-s-all-seeing-state) to language translation to a myriad of different forms of automation. As with any new and transformative technology, there are both upsides and downsides. Many AI experts are concerned about what could happen with general AI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superi...rs,_Strategies

    Keep in mind that book is already 4 years old, and we're already seeing specialized AI's that can create their own "children" AI that are better than anything humans can come up with: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-st...-a8093201.html

    So I guess bring on the self driving cars, but let's try not to end our existence while doing it!

  5. #105

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC
    Don’t things that take decades to develop, tend to undergo compound advances in their final years?


    Exactly. And we're seeing that happen in a multitude of different AI fields, from facial recognition software (which is leading to some pretty dystopian outcomes in China:
    http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-china-42248056/in-your-face-china-s-all-seeing-state) to language translation to a myriad of different forms of automation. As with any new and transformative technology, there are both upsides and downsides. Many AI experts are concerned about what could happen with general AI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superi...rs,_Strategies

    Keep in mind that book is already 4 years old, and we're already seeing specialized AI's that can create their own "children" AI that are better than anything humans can come up with: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-st...-a8093201.html

    So I guess bring on the self driving cars, but let's try not to end our existence while doing it!
    Existence.
    Well, if they can do away with the lawyers... it might be a small price to pay

    However, if AI is already having kids, well,... think teenagers. We’re safe. AI is going to be too busy with its own problems.
    Last edited by KC; 25-01-2018 at 08:08 AM.

  6. #106

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    We hear of planes going on auto-pilot but how about trains?. I've never heard of a train on auto-pilot. Still an engineer in charge. One would think that trains would be the first method on transportation to go driver/engineer free. It's on a fixed track, has designated stops, moving parts when the doors have to open and close, passes through fixed signals etc. How come they have not perfected that yet as it would be easier to do than putting millions of vehicles on auto-pilot.
    Gone............................and very quickly forgotten may I add.

  7. #107
    Giving less of a damn than everů Can't laugh at the ignorant if you ignore them!

  8. #108

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    I think relinquishing control of something that could kill people so easily if used improperly is not a good idea.

    Especially since we would be willingly handing it over corporations like Google (who already don't care about people's privacy or consumer data) to do it for us.

  9. #109

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    I think relinquishing control of something that could kill people so easily if used improperly is not a good idea.

    Especially since we would be willingly handing it over corporations like Google (who already don't care about people's privacy or consumer data) to do it for us.
    Hmm. Have you looked around at the current batch of drivers. Control has been relinquished.

    On Sunday I had to chastise a middle aged guy parking in front of my wife’s vehicle. He backed into it twice trying to squeeze into the spot. I walked up and had him roll down the window and said: You really have to stop doing that! And didn’t even get an apology. In November a lady bumped into the back of the same vehicle in a drive through line up! Broke the reflector in the bumper which someday I’ll have to fix. (We didn’t ask of anything for the damage, it’s so minor). But the point is - too many people on drugs or something!

  10. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    I think relinquishing control of something that could kill people so easily if used improperly is not a good idea.

    Especially since we would be willingly handing it over corporations like Google (who already don't care about people's privacy or consumer data) to do it for us.
    The systems that we're relinquishing control of are going to be safer with computers in control than they were before with primates. Are you aware that something like 99% (that might be hyperbole) of commercial flight is computer controlled now, including take-offs and landings? And it's done nothing but make air travel safer. Air France 447 slamming in to the ocean excepted. But that was ultimately more about human error and bad design than it was the system failing.

  11. #111

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    I think relinquishing control of something that could kill people so easily if used improperly is not a good idea.

    Especially since we would be willingly handing it over corporations like Google (who already don't care about people's privacy or consumer data) to do it for us.
    And we must remember the Chevy ignition switch failures that GM knew about for 10 years but did nothing because they saved a few cents on parts that knowingly injured and killed people and the GM lawyers and bean counters rationalized the cost.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene...switch_recalls

    At least 124 people died and they did not care or recall cars until they were forced to. In Canada our public safety laws are so weak that we cannot force automakers to recall or fix cars. There are millions of cars out there that are unsafe.

    Do you really want to trust GM with your life?
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  12. #112

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    I think relinquishing control of something that could kill people so easily if used improperly is not a good idea.

    Especially since we would be willingly handing it over corporations like Google (who already don't care about people's privacy or consumer data) to do it for us.
    The systems that we're relinquishing control of are going to be safer with computers in control than they were before with primates. Are you aware that something like 99% (that might be hyperbole) of commercial flight is computer controlled now, including take-offs and landings? And it's done nothing but make air travel safer. Air France 447 slamming in to the ocean excepted. But that was ultimately more about human error and bad design than it was the system failing.
    False equivalency


    Let's not use the airline industry ads an example unless you can say that all driverless cars will be inspected and properly maintained by law and regulation as are airplanes. The standards of manufacture, inspection and accountability in the airline industry will NEVER be achieved in the automotive sector and even annual inspections of vehicles by the Alberta government was eliminated 40+ years ago.
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  13. #113

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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    Do you really want to trust GM with your life?
    Thank goodness I don't!

  14. #114

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    How about Windows?

    Your car crashes twice a week and freezes at 100kph, to be expected...
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  15. #115

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    Tesla shares drop as questions around fatal Model X crash in California continue to swirl
    March has been brutal for Tesla, with shares falling on all but five days. The trend continued Wednesday with a decline of as much as 9.7 per cent, the biggest drop since June 2016, to $252.10 U.S.



    The accident also potentially raises fresh questions about self-driving features after a deadly Uber Technologies Inc. accident that happened days earlier and sent ripples across the broader autonomous-vehicle industry.

    “We have in the past questioned Tesla’s promise that the current hardware will be able to eventually provide full self-driving capability,” Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne, who rates Tesla as “underperform,” wrote in a note. Given regulators’ reaction to the fatal Uber crash, “we see a large risk” that the self-driving equipment and capabilities Tesla has been touting to customers many not meet the eventual government standards, he wrote.


    <snip>


    Wei Huang, 38, died when his Tesla collided with a highway barrier on southbound Highway 101 near Mountain View and caught fire, according to the California Highway Patrol. The driver’s LinkedIn profile identifies him as a software engineer who joined Apple Inc. in November after more than a decade at Electronic Arts Inc. Apple didn’t respond to a request for comment.


    The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board said in a tweet on Tuesday that it was sending investigators to examine issues raised by the accident, including the post-crash fire and steps needed to make the vehicle safe to remove from an accident scene.


    Tesla’s battery packs are designed so that when a fire occurs, it spreads slowly so people have more time to exit or be removed from the car. “That appears to be what happened here as we understand there were no occupants still in the Model X by the time the fire could have presented a risk,” the company said in its blog post.


    The collision caused extensive damage partly because a safety barrier meant to reduce the impact into a concrete lane divider had been removed or crushed in a prior accident without being replaced, according to Tesla. Tesla owners have driven the same highway stretch with Autopilot engaged about 85,000 times since the system was introduced, and no accidents have been reported that the company is aware of, the carmaker said.


    <snip>


    The safety board’s probe into the Mountain View crash is the second this year involving the company’s vehicles. Tesla’s approach to autonomy, which includes cameras and radar, is just one of the designs automakers are developing under the watchful eyes of federal and state regulators. Other carmakers are supplementing their systems with a laser-based system called lidar.


    The NTSB is also investigating this month’s Uber accident in Tempe, Arizona, in which a Volvo XC90 equipped with the ride-hailing giant’s self-driving system failed to slow the vehicle as a 49-year-old woman crossed the street pushing a bicycle. The pedestrian died from the collision.


    Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday downgraded Tesla’s corporate family rating to B3, six levels into junk, and said its outlook on the company is negative. The credit rater cited “the significant shortfall in the production rate of Tesla’s Model 3” and liquidity pressures as two chief concerns.
    https://www.thestar.com/business/201...-to-swirl.html
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  16. #116

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    Update

    6 seconds and you die

    Tesla says vehicle in deadly California crash was on autopilot
    Driver did not have hands on steering wheel for 6 seconds before crash, says electric car maker
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/te...-car-1.4601297

    The vehicle in a fatal crash last week in California was operating on autopilot, making it the latest accident involving a self-driving vehicle, Tesla has confirmed.


    The electric car maker said the driver, who was killed in the accident, did not have his hands on the steering wheel for six seconds before the crash, despite several warnings from the vehicle. Tesla Inc. tells drivers that its autopilot system, which can keep speed, change lanes and self-park, requires drivers to keep their eyes on the road and hands on the wheel in order to take control of the vehicle to avoid accidents.
    Previous Autopilot Tesla Accidents



    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tesl...tion-1.4502203



    http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/te...ntsb-1.4287026
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  17. #117
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    The family said the guy who died reported the autopilot problem to Tesla, ( more than once)they have no account of it, how convenient..

  18. #118

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    I have no idea how Tesla's future will turn out, but Tesla's mission to jump start the Electric Vehicle race is already accomplished.

    So far what we see are that driverless cars are every bit as much a detriment as a benefit.

  19. #119

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    In related news...

    The first-ever attempt by the Russian Post to deliver mail using a drone resulted in a spectacular failure as shown by footage captured in the eastern Siberian city of Ulan-Ude on Monday.


    Direct to home delivery...
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  20. #120

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    Than “we” think. So the author has a direct line into your thoughts.


    Bumps on the road: Why driverless cars are further off than we think | CTV News

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/featur...hink-1.3824235

  21. #121

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    From aging drivers to self-driving cars, an in-depth look at the problems facing Canadian roads | CTV News
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/featur...oads-1.3824704

  22. #122

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    I have no idea how Tesla's future will turn out, but Tesla's mission to jump start the Electric Vehicle race is already accomplished.

    So far what we see are that driverless cars are every bit as much a detriment as a benefit.
    Driverless cars should be considered as being in the development phase. Eventually they should be able to far surpass humans in driving safely. However they can’t even get the testing done safely because of human error and the idea that they can release millions of self driving vehicles onto the market with just the owner signing off on a piece of paper saying they will sit there ready to take over is insane.

    Arizona Uber crash driver was 'watching TV' - BBC News

    “It suggests she could face charges of vehicle manslaughter.”
    ...
    “The Tempe police report said the crash was "entirely avoidable" if the Uber operator, Rafaela Vasquez, had been watching the road while the car was operating autonomously.
    County prosecutors have received a copy of the police report, which was released on 21 June following a freedom of information request.
    ...
    Ms Vasquez looked up from her phone screen about 0.5 seconds before the crash, said the report, but had been concentrating on her phone for about 5.3 seconds previously. At the time, the driverless Volvo car was travelling at 44mph (70km/h).




    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44574290
    And in looking at the video, I still think the headlights were a problem. This car was moving at only 70 km/h.
    Last edited by KC; 22-06-2018 at 08:30 AM.

  23. #123
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    ^ "However they can’t even get the testing done safely because of human error and the idea that they can release millions of self driving vehicles onto the market with just the owner signing off on a piece of paper saying they will sit there ready to take over is insane."

    And human error is the constant in all of this. There is no way around it.
    Nisi Dominus Frustra

  24. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by howie View Post
    ^ "However they can’t even get the testing done safely because of human error and the idea that they can release millions of self driving vehicles onto the market with just the owner signing off on a piece of paper saying they will sit there ready to take over is insane."

    And human error is the constant in all of this. There is no way around it.
    That includes the humans designing these vehicles and writing the code.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  25. #125

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    ...and doing the testing, quality control and certification.

    Volkswagen Executive Gets 7 Years Jail Time For Emissions Fraud In The US
    https://auto.ndtv.com/news/volkswage...the-us-1785609

    New diesel scandal? German officials investigate Audi
    http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/08/inve...ion/index.html

    GM settles deadly ignition switch cases for $120 million
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...ion/777831001/
    General Motors will pay $120 million to settle claims from dozens of states in its massive ignition switch defect scandal. The settlement announced Thursday resolves one piece in the legal battles involving a case that left at least 124 people dead and 275 injured in small cars such as the Chevrolet Cobalt and Saturn Ion that were made by the old GM. The news release noted that "certain employees of GM and General Motors Corporation knew as early as 2004 that the ignition switch posed a safety defect because it could cause airbag non-deployment.


    The Biggest Car Recalls in History
    https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/biggest-car-recalls
    Toyota, Volkswagen, and General Motors have been in the headlines for leading some of the highest-profile automotive recalls in recent years, but those aren’t necessary the industry’s largest.
    The federal government issued a record number of recalls in 2015; close to 900 separate recalls affected 51 million vehicles nationwide. The ones freshest in our memories are Toyota’s problem with sudden acceleration, General Motors’ faulty ignition switches, and Volkswagen’s cheating on emissions tests of its diesel vehicles, but some incidents in previous decades affected several million more.


    How can we trust driverless cars from the same companies that brought us the Pinto, the Chevy Cobalt, faulty airbags and now a President who wants more deregulation on the industry.
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  26. #126

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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    ...and doing the testing, quality control and certification.

    Volkswagen Executive Gets 7 Years Jail Time For Emissions Fraud In The US
    https://auto.ndtv.com/news/volkswage...the-us-1785609

    New diesel scandal? German officials investigate Audi
    http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/08/inve...ion/index.html

    GM settles deadly ignition switch cases for $120 million
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...ion/777831001/
    General Motors will pay $120 million to settle claims from dozens of states in its massive ignition switch defect scandal. The settlement announced Thursday resolves one piece in the legal battles involving a case that left at least 124 people dead and 275 injured in small cars such as the Chevrolet Cobalt and Saturn Ion that were made by the old GM. The news release noted that "certain employees of GM and General Motors Corporation knew as early as 2004 that the ignition switch posed a safety defect because it could cause airbag non-deployment.


    The Biggest Car Recalls in History
    https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/biggest-car-recalls
    Toyota, Volkswagen, and General Motors have been in the headlines for leading some of the highest-profile automotive recalls in recent years, but those aren’t necessary the industry’s largest.
    The federal government issued a record number of recalls in 2015; close to 900 separate recalls affected 51 million vehicles nationwide. The ones freshest in our memories are Toyota’s problem with sudden acceleration, General Motors’ faulty ignition switches, and Volkswagen’s cheating on emissions tests of its diesel vehicles, but some incidents in previous decades affected several million more.


    How can we trust driverless cars from the same companies that brought us the Pinto, the Chevy Cobalt, faulty airbags and now a President who wants more deregulation on the industry.
    Don’t forget Mercedes:
    German regulator found 5 defeat devices in Daimler diesels, paper says
    http://europe.autonews.com/article/2...oreUserAgent=1


    The self driving cars will get better and better but the Uber death shows that the sensors used were no where near good enough for even driving at slow speeds.

  27. #127

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    Even recent events show that management was fully aware and complicit in fraud and endangerment of customers knowing that they could make more profits and line their pockets. Does anyone believe that greed will somehow dissappear when manufacturers build driverless cars? If so, I have a few bridges I can sell you at a great price.
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  28. #128
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    As I said earlier, human error, whether by accident or by design, is the constant and the world bumbles along anyway.
    Nisi Dominus Frustra

  29. #129

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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    Even recent events show that management was fully aware and complicit in fraud and endangerment of customers knowing that they could make more profits and line their pockets. Does anyone believe that greed will somehow dissappear when manufacturers build driverless cars? If so, I have a few bridges I can sell you at a great price.
    They want sales and they don’t want a competitor getting ahead of them so they will rush a product to market. It’s done that way all the time and often with serious consequences and little broad concern within society.

    It’s up to other forces in society to recognize that there could be a lot of collateral damage (aka “death”) associated with the widespread adoption of the technology and those with objective reasoned fears need to push back and work to hold the corporate executives to account for rushing without concern for the damage they will cause.
    Last edited by KC; 22-06-2018 at 12:59 PM.

  30. #130

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    They have wet dreams of replacing every car and truck on the road today...$$$$$$
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  31. #131

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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    They have wet dreams of replacing every car and truck on the road today...
    And just as I pointed out in my post above about the MP’s comments, that’s not going to happen. So instead they need to design for reality and not try to blame the incompatibility of their current technology on the reality that roads are messy unpredictable places.

    Someone walking across a road is among the most basic road hazards there are and so it sure looks like the technology is pretty useless - at this point in time.

  32. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    They have wet dreams of replacing every car and truck on the road today...
    And just as I pointed out in my post above about the MP’s comments, that’s not going to happen. So instead they need to design for reality and not try to blame the incompatibility of their current technology on the reality that roads are messy unpredictable places.

    Someone walking across a road is among the most basic road hazards there are and so it sure looks like the technology is pretty useless - at this point in time.
    So after having achieved the technology to guarantee 100% safe vehicles at some point in time, it will be necessary to have technology to guarantee 100% safe pedestrians. Dream on.
    Nisi Dominus Frustra

  33. #133

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    Quote Originally Posted by howie View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    They have wet dreams of replacing every car and truck on the road today...
    And just as I pointed out in my post above about the MP’s comments, that’s not going to happen. So instead they need to design for reality and not try to blame the incompatibility of their current technology on the reality that roads are messy unpredictable places.

    Someone walking across a road is among the most basic road hazards there are and so it sure looks like the technology is pretty useless - at this point in time.
    So after having achieved the technology to guarantee 100% safe vehicles at some point in time, it will be necessary to have technology to guarantee 100% safe pedestrians. Dream on.
    Not at all. The systems though do have to perform a bit better than an average drunk driver. This process is consolidating the actions of hundreds of millions of independent actors into just a handful of systems owned by a handful of companies. The resulting oligopolies will attract an incredible amount of attention every time there’s an accident, especially at the introduction of mass production and adoption.

    So if paid and thoroughly trained employees* can’t even stay focused on the road, it’s going to be impossible for these companies to say that they hold no liability when they put their systems in the hands of novices and inevitably the average Joe gets distracted and the vehicle runs over a toddler on a tricycle - all because the system is only designed to detect and react to the top ten most common obstacles.

    My point is that they have to deal with the “reality” that every human driver deals with everyday and do a lot better, not just - as good as - normal drivers.


    This car is on Autopilot. What happens next? - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/business...t-happens-next




    * employees trained for testing of just a few cars across the country and where everyone is fully aware that the corporate reputation is on the line
    Last edited by KC; 23-06-2018 at 02:09 AM.

  34. #134

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    We're giving fines for distracted driving, we're reducing speed limits to 30km, we're trying to reduce deaths injuries through driving and We're increasingly allowing autopilot driving?


    When Edmonton, or Alberta, allows people to be driving Autopilot vehicles I will cease to drive. Simple as that. Quite frankly I will also never cycle on roads and will be more reluctant to walk on sidewalks.


    Defensive driving is an artform and as per the BBC video the "autopilot" doesn't even manage a routine driving scenario and did not spot the stopped car. Instead it crashes into it. The other hazard not reflected in the video is that failure to spot a stopped vehicle ahead on a highway and resulting in you stopping at all in that lane, on a highway, obviously puts you at extremely great risk of being rear ended.


    Could you imagine the terror of occupants when an autonomous vehicle does something like that which as a defensive driver you know to be crazy and potentially fatal?


    Theres no way you could get me into one of these.
    "if god exists and he allowed that to happen, then its better that he doesn't exist"

  35. #135

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    Quote Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
    We're giving fines for distracted driving, we're reducing speed limits to 30km, we're trying to reduce deaths injuries through driving and We're increasingly allowing autopilot driving?


    When Edmonton, or Alberta, allows people to be driving Autopilot vehicles I will cease to drive. Simple as that. Quite frankly I will also never cycle on roads and will be more reluctant to walk on sidewalks.


    Defensive driving is an artform and as per the BBC video the "autopilot" doesn't even manage a routine driving scenario and did not spot the stopped car. Instead it crashes into it. The other hazard not reflected in the video is that failure to spot a stopped vehicle ahead on a highway and resulting in you stopping at all in that lane, on a highway, obviously puts you at extremely great risk of being rear ended.


    Could you imagine the terror of occupants when an autonomous vehicle does something like that which as a defensive driver you know to be crazy and potentially fatal?


    Theres no way you could get me into one of these.
    It's why I don't see this driverless car thing working unless all cars are driverless. I'm talking 100% compliance. If people are behind the wheel you cannot foresee every scenario they do on the road. If you've driven long enough you have seen some really dumb stuff that defies logic so expecting a machine to figure out what the hell someone is doing behind the wheel seems to be asking a lot.

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