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Thread: Don't Fear Driverless Cars

  1. #101

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    My calculator is better and faster at math too but the leap to driverless cars is exponentially more difficult by several degrees. Chess has written rules, only 2 players on a fixed grid with 64 squares and standard strategies with no external forces.

    As I noted, in order to drive, drivers must adjust to rapidly changing conditions, thousands of interactions and variables. It took decades to program and develop the AI until a computer could beat a human consistently.

    Respectfully, your false comparison is comparing apples with the Titanic. In chess, if the computer loses, the person wins. In driving, if the computer loses, the driver dies.

    Think about that.
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  2. #102
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    There's a ton of a lot smarter people than either of us who have thought about it, and they've made incredible progress in a very short time over the last few years. Whether it's 2 years or 20, the age of primates controlling 2 tons of metal are coming to an end.

  3. #103

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    Don’t things that take decades to develop, tend to undergo compound advances in their final years? Look at the portable / mobile phone development over the four from the 1950s until the 1990s and then compare it to the two decades of the 1990s and 2000s.

    I don’t know if the numbers of variables are that great for the basic hurdles. Inputs - detect anything getting in the way, anything moving into the way, anything altering the road conditions and monitoring anything currently around the vehicle (other vehicles) and ?
    Responses: steering, brakes, speed and ?

    Photo recognition tech or recognition tech should build up massive databases of almost everything the sensors can encounter. Start interconnecting things and then even that hurdle disappears. Eg I am a cement truck and I’m just around the corner out of sight and approaching fast...
    Last edited by KC; 25-01-2018 at 07:45 AM.

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by KC
    Don’t things that take decades to develop, tend to undergo compound advances in their final years?


    Exactly. And we're seeing that happen in a multitude of different AI fields, from facial recognition software (which is leading to some pretty dystopian outcomes in China:
    http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-china-42248056/in-your-face-china-s-all-seeing-state) to language translation to a myriad of different forms of automation. As with any new and transformative technology, there are both upsides and downsides. Many AI experts are concerned about what could happen with general AI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superi...rs,_Strategies

    Keep in mind that book is already 4 years old, and we're already seeing specialized AI's that can create their own "children" AI that are better than anything humans can come up with: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-st...-a8093201.html

    So I guess bring on the self driving cars, but let's try not to end our existence while doing it!

  5. #105

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC
    Don’t things that take decades to develop, tend to undergo compound advances in their final years?


    Exactly. And we're seeing that happen in a multitude of different AI fields, from facial recognition software (which is leading to some pretty dystopian outcomes in China:
    http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-china-42248056/in-your-face-china-s-all-seeing-state) to language translation to a myriad of different forms of automation. As with any new and transformative technology, there are both upsides and downsides. Many AI experts are concerned about what could happen with general AI: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superi...rs,_Strategies

    Keep in mind that book is already 4 years old, and we're already seeing specialized AI's that can create their own "children" AI that are better than anything humans can come up with: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-st...-a8093201.html

    So I guess bring on the self driving cars, but let's try not to end our existence while doing it!
    Existence.
    Well, if they can do away with the lawyers... it might be a small price to pay

    However, if AI is already having kids, well,... think teenagers. We’re safe. AI is going to be too busy with its own problems.
    Last edited by KC; 25-01-2018 at 08:08 AM.

  6. #106

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    We hear of planes going on auto-pilot but how about trains?. I've never heard of a train on auto-pilot. Still an engineer in charge. One would think that trains would be the first method on transportation to go driver/engineer free. It's on a fixed track, has designated stops, moving parts when the doors have to open and close, passes through fixed signals etc. How come they have not perfected that yet as it would be easier to do than putting millions of vehicles on auto-pilot.
    Gone............................and very quickly forgotten may I add.

  7. #107
    Giving less of a damn than everÖ Can't laugh at the ignorant if you ignore them!

  8. #108

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    I think relinquishing control of something that could kill people so easily if used improperly is not a good idea.

    Especially since we would be willingly handing it over corporations like Google (who already don't care about people's privacy or consumer data) to do it for us.

  9. #109

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    I think relinquishing control of something that could kill people so easily if used improperly is not a good idea.

    Especially since we would be willingly handing it over corporations like Google (who already don't care about people's privacy or consumer data) to do it for us.
    Hmm. Have you looked around at the current batch of drivers. Control has been relinquished.

    On Sunday I had to chastise a middle aged guy parking in front of my wife’s vehicle. He backed into it twice trying to squeeze into the spot. I walked up and had him roll down the window and said: You really have to stop doing that! And didn’t even get an apology. In November a lady bumped into the back of the same vehicle in a drive through line up! Broke the reflector in the bumper which someday I’ll have to fix. (We didn’t ask of anything for the damage, it’s so minor). But the point is - too many people on drugs or something!

  10. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    I think relinquishing control of something that could kill people so easily if used improperly is not a good idea.

    Especially since we would be willingly handing it over corporations like Google (who already don't care about people's privacy or consumer data) to do it for us.
    The systems that we're relinquishing control of are going to be safer with computers in control than they were before with primates. Are you aware that something like 99% (that might be hyperbole) of commercial flight is computer controlled now, including take-offs and landings? And it's done nothing but make air travel safer. Air France 447 slamming in to the ocean excepted. But that was ultimately more about human error and bad design than it was the system failing.

  11. #111

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    I think relinquishing control of something that could kill people so easily if used improperly is not a good idea.

    Especially since we would be willingly handing it over corporations like Google (who already don't care about people's privacy or consumer data) to do it for us.
    And we must remember the Chevy ignition switch failures that GM knew about for 10 years but did nothing because they saved a few cents on parts that knowingly injured and killed people and the GM lawyers and bean counters rationalized the cost.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene...switch_recalls

    At least 124 people died and they did not care or recall cars until they were forced to. In Canada our public safety laws are so weak that we cannot force automakers to recall or fix cars. There are millions of cars out there that are unsafe.

    Do you really want to trust GM with your life?
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  12. #112

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcel Petrin View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    I think relinquishing control of something that could kill people so easily if used improperly is not a good idea.

    Especially since we would be willingly handing it over corporations like Google (who already don't care about people's privacy or consumer data) to do it for us.
    The systems that we're relinquishing control of are going to be safer with computers in control than they were before with primates. Are you aware that something like 99% (that might be hyperbole) of commercial flight is computer controlled now, including take-offs and landings? And it's done nothing but make air travel safer. Air France 447 slamming in to the ocean excepted. But that was ultimately more about human error and bad design than it was the system failing.
    False equivalency


    Let's not use the airline industry ads an example unless you can say that all driverless cars will be inspected and properly maintained by law and regulation as are airplanes. The standards of manufacture, inspection and accountability in the airline industry will NEVER be achieved in the automotive sector and even annual inspections of vehicles by the Alberta government was eliminated 40+ years ago.
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  13. #113

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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    Do you really want to trust GM with your life?
    Thank goodness I don't!

  14. #114

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    How about Windows?

    Your car crashes twice a week and freezes at 100kph, to be expected...
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  15. #115

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    Tesla shares drop as questions around fatal Model X crash in California continue to swirl
    March has been brutal for Tesla, with shares falling on all but five days. The trend continued Wednesday with a decline of as much as 9.7 per cent, the biggest drop since June 2016, to $252.10 U.S.



    The accident also potentially raises fresh questions about self-driving features after a deadly Uber Technologies Inc. accident that happened days earlier and sent ripples across the broader autonomous-vehicle industry.

    “We have in the past questioned Tesla’s promise that the current hardware will be able to eventually provide full self-driving capability,” Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne, who rates Tesla as “underperform,” wrote in a note. Given regulators’ reaction to the fatal Uber crash, “we see a large risk” that the self-driving equipment and capabilities Tesla has been touting to customers many not meet the eventual government standards, he wrote.


    <snip>


    Wei Huang, 38, died when his Tesla collided with a highway barrier on southbound Highway 101 near Mountain View and caught fire, according to the California Highway Patrol. The driver’s LinkedIn profile identifies him as a software engineer who joined Apple Inc. in November after more than a decade at Electronic Arts Inc. Apple didn’t respond to a request for comment.


    The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board said in a tweet on Tuesday that it was sending investigators to examine issues raised by the accident, including the post-crash fire and steps needed to make the vehicle safe to remove from an accident scene.


    Tesla’s battery packs are designed so that when a fire occurs, it spreads slowly so people have more time to exit or be removed from the car. “That appears to be what happened here as we understand there were no occupants still in the Model X by the time the fire could have presented a risk,” the company said in its blog post.


    The collision caused extensive damage partly because a safety barrier meant to reduce the impact into a concrete lane divider had been removed or crushed in a prior accident without being replaced, according to Tesla. Tesla owners have driven the same highway stretch with Autopilot engaged about 85,000 times since the system was introduced, and no accidents have been reported that the company is aware of, the carmaker said.


    <snip>


    The safety board’s probe into the Mountain View crash is the second this year involving the company’s vehicles. Tesla’s approach to autonomy, which includes cameras and radar, is just one of the designs automakers are developing under the watchful eyes of federal and state regulators. Other carmakers are supplementing their systems with a laser-based system called lidar.


    The NTSB is also investigating this month’s Uber accident in Tempe, Arizona, in which a Volvo XC90 equipped with the ride-hailing giant’s self-driving system failed to slow the vehicle as a 49-year-old woman crossed the street pushing a bicycle. The pedestrian died from the collision.


    Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday downgraded Tesla’s corporate family rating to B3, six levels into junk, and said its outlook on the company is negative. The credit rater cited “the significant shortfall in the production rate of Tesla’s Model 3” and liquidity pressures as two chief concerns.
    https://www.thestar.com/business/201...-to-swirl.html
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  16. #116

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    Update

    6 seconds and you die

    Tesla says vehicle in deadly California crash was on autopilot
    Driver did not have hands on steering wheel for 6 seconds before crash, says electric car maker
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/te...-car-1.4601297

    The vehicle in a fatal crash last week in California was operating on autopilot, making it the latest accident involving a self-driving vehicle, Tesla has confirmed.


    The electric car maker said the driver, who was killed in the accident, did not have his hands on the steering wheel for six seconds before the crash, despite several warnings from the vehicle. Tesla Inc. tells drivers that its autopilot system, which can keep speed, change lanes and self-park, requires drivers to keep their eyes on the road and hands on the wheel in order to take control of the vehicle to avoid accidents.
    Previous Autopilot Tesla Accidents



    http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tesl...tion-1.4502203



    http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/te...ntsb-1.4287026
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  17. #117
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    The family said the guy who died reported the autopilot problem to Tesla, ( more than once)they have no account of it, how convenient..

  18. #118

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    I have no idea how Tesla's future will turn out, but Tesla's mission to jump start the Electric Vehicle race is already accomplished.

    So far what we see are that driverless cars are every bit as much a detriment as a benefit.

  19. #119

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    In related news...

    The first-ever attempt by the Russian Post to deliver mail using a drone resulted in a spectacular failure as shown by footage captured in the eastern Siberian city of Ulan-Ude on Monday.


    Direct to home delivery...
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  20. #120

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    Than “we” think. So the author has a direct line into your thoughts.


    Bumps on the road: Why driverless cars are further off than we think | CTV News

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/featur...hink-1.3824235

  21. #121

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    From aging drivers to self-driving cars, an in-depth look at the problems facing Canadian roads | CTV News
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/featur...oads-1.3824704

  22. #122

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrOilers View Post
    I have no idea how Tesla's future will turn out, but Tesla's mission to jump start the Electric Vehicle race is already accomplished.

    So far what we see are that driverless cars are every bit as much a detriment as a benefit.
    Driverless cars should be considered as being in the development phase. Eventually they should be able to far surpass humans in driving safely. However they can’t even get the testing done safely because of human error and the idea that they can release millions of self driving vehicles onto the market with just the owner signing off on a piece of paper saying they will sit there ready to take over is insane.

    Arizona Uber crash driver was 'watching TV' - BBC News

    “It suggests she could face charges of vehicle manslaughter.”
    ...
    “The Tempe police report said the crash was "entirely avoidable" if the Uber operator, Rafaela Vasquez, had been watching the road while the car was operating autonomously.
    County prosecutors have received a copy of the police report, which was released on 21 June following a freedom of information request.
    ...
    Ms Vasquez looked up from her phone screen about 0.5 seconds before the crash, said the report, but had been concentrating on her phone for about 5.3 seconds previously. At the time, the driverless Volvo car was travelling at 44mph (70km/h).




    https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-44574290
    And in looking at the video, I still think the headlights were a problem. This car was moving at only 70 km/h.
    Last edited by KC; 22-06-2018 at 08:30 AM.

  23. #123
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    ^ "However they can’t even get the testing done safely because of human error and the idea that they can release millions of self driving vehicles onto the market with just the owner signing off on a piece of paper saying they will sit there ready to take over is insane."

    And human error is the constant in all of this. There is no way around it.
    Nisi Dominus Frustra

  24. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by howie View Post
    ^ "However they can’t even get the testing done safely because of human error and the idea that they can release millions of self driving vehicles onto the market with just the owner signing off on a piece of paper saying they will sit there ready to take over is insane."

    And human error is the constant in all of this. There is no way around it.
    That includes the humans designing these vehicles and writing the code.

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

  25. #125

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    ...and doing the testing, quality control and certification.

    Volkswagen Executive Gets 7 Years Jail Time For Emissions Fraud In The US
    https://auto.ndtv.com/news/volkswage...the-us-1785609

    New diesel scandal? German officials investigate Audi
    http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/08/inve...ion/index.html

    GM settles deadly ignition switch cases for $120 million
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...ion/777831001/
    General Motors will pay $120 million to settle claims from dozens of states in its massive ignition switch defect scandal. The settlement announced Thursday resolves one piece in the legal battles involving a case that left at least 124 people dead and 275 injured in small cars such as the Chevrolet Cobalt and Saturn Ion that were made by the old GM. The news release noted that "certain employees of GM and General Motors Corporation knew as early as 2004 that the ignition switch posed a safety defect because it could cause airbag non-deployment.


    The Biggest Car Recalls in History
    https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/biggest-car-recalls
    Toyota, Volkswagen, and General Motors have been in the headlines for leading some of the highest-profile automotive recalls in recent years, but those aren’t necessary the industry’s largest.
    The federal government issued a record number of recalls in 2015; close to 900 separate recalls affected 51 million vehicles nationwide. The ones freshest in our memories are Toyota’s problem with sudden acceleration, General Motors’ faulty ignition switches, and Volkswagen’s cheating on emissions tests of its diesel vehicles, but some incidents in previous decades affected several million more.


    How can we trust driverless cars from the same companies that brought us the Pinto, the Chevy Cobalt, faulty airbags and now a President who wants more deregulation on the industry.
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  26. #126

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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    ...and doing the testing, quality control and certification.

    Volkswagen Executive Gets 7 Years Jail Time For Emissions Fraud In The US
    https://auto.ndtv.com/news/volkswage...the-us-1785609

    New diesel scandal? German officials investigate Audi
    http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/08/inve...ion/index.html

    GM settles deadly ignition switch cases for $120 million
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...ion/777831001/
    General Motors will pay $120 million to settle claims from dozens of states in its massive ignition switch defect scandal. The settlement announced Thursday resolves one piece in the legal battles involving a case that left at least 124 people dead and 275 injured in small cars such as the Chevrolet Cobalt and Saturn Ion that were made by the old GM. The news release noted that "certain employees of GM and General Motors Corporation knew as early as 2004 that the ignition switch posed a safety defect because it could cause airbag non-deployment.


    The Biggest Car Recalls in History
    https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/biggest-car-recalls
    Toyota, Volkswagen, and General Motors have been in the headlines for leading some of the highest-profile automotive recalls in recent years, but those aren’t necessary the industry’s largest.
    The federal government issued a record number of recalls in 2015; close to 900 separate recalls affected 51 million vehicles nationwide. The ones freshest in our memories are Toyota’s problem with sudden acceleration, General Motors’ faulty ignition switches, and Volkswagen’s cheating on emissions tests of its diesel vehicles, but some incidents in previous decades affected several million more.


    How can we trust driverless cars from the same companies that brought us the Pinto, the Chevy Cobalt, faulty airbags and now a President who wants more deregulation on the industry.
    Don’t forget Mercedes:
    German regulator found 5 defeat devices in Daimler diesels, paper says
    http://europe.autonews.com/article/2...oreUserAgent=1


    The self driving cars will get better and better but the Uber death shows that the sensors used were no where near good enough for even driving at slow speeds.

  27. #127

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    Even recent events show that management was fully aware and complicit in fraud and endangerment of customers knowing that they could make more profits and line their pockets. Does anyone believe that greed will somehow dissappear when manufacturers build driverless cars? If so, I have a few bridges I can sell you at a great price.
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  28. #128
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    As I said earlier, human error, whether by accident or by design, is the constant and the world bumbles along anyway.
    Nisi Dominus Frustra

  29. #129

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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    Even recent events show that management was fully aware and complicit in fraud and endangerment of customers knowing that they could make more profits and line their pockets. Does anyone believe that greed will somehow dissappear when manufacturers build driverless cars? If so, I have a few bridges I can sell you at a great price.
    They want sales and they don’t want a competitor getting ahead of them so they will rush a product to market. It’s done that way all the time and often with serious consequences and little broad concern within society.

    It’s up to other forces in society to recognize that there could be a lot of collateral damage (aka “death”) associated with the widespread adoption of the technology and those with objective reasoned fears need to push back and work to hold the corporate executives to account for rushing without concern for the damage they will cause.
    Last edited by KC; 22-06-2018 at 12:59 PM.

  30. #130

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    They have wet dreams of replacing every car and truck on the road today...$$$$$$
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  31. #131

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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    They have wet dreams of replacing every car and truck on the road today...
    And just as I pointed out in my post above about the MP’s comments, that’s not going to happen. So instead they need to design for reality and not try to blame the incompatibility of their current technology on the reality that roads are messy unpredictable places.

    Someone walking across a road is among the most basic road hazards there are and so it sure looks like the technology is pretty useless - at this point in time.

  32. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    They have wet dreams of replacing every car and truck on the road today...
    And just as I pointed out in my post above about the MP’s comments, that’s not going to happen. So instead they need to design for reality and not try to blame the incompatibility of their current technology on the reality that roads are messy unpredictable places.

    Someone walking across a road is among the most basic road hazards there are and so it sure looks like the technology is pretty useless - at this point in time.
    So after having achieved the technology to guarantee 100% safe vehicles at some point in time, it will be necessary to have technology to guarantee 100% safe pedestrians. Dream on.
    Nisi Dominus Frustra

  33. #133

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    Quote Originally Posted by howie View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    They have wet dreams of replacing every car and truck on the road today...
    And just as I pointed out in my post above about the MP’s comments, that’s not going to happen. So instead they need to design for reality and not try to blame the incompatibility of their current technology on the reality that roads are messy unpredictable places.

    Someone walking across a road is among the most basic road hazards there are and so it sure looks like the technology is pretty useless - at this point in time.
    So after having achieved the technology to guarantee 100% safe vehicles at some point in time, it will be necessary to have technology to guarantee 100% safe pedestrians. Dream on.
    Not at all. The systems though do have to perform a bit better than an average drunk driver. This process is consolidating the actions of hundreds of millions of independent actors into just a handful of systems owned by a handful of companies. The resulting oligopolies will attract an incredible amount of attention every time there’s an accident, especially at the introduction of mass production and adoption.

    So if paid and thoroughly trained employees* can’t even stay focused on the road, it’s going to be impossible for these companies to say that they hold no liability when they put their systems in the hands of novices and inevitably the average Joe gets distracted and the vehicle runs over a toddler on a tricycle - all because the system is only designed to detect and react to the top ten most common obstacles.

    My point is that they have to deal with the “reality” that every human driver deals with everyday and do a lot better, not just - as good as - normal drivers.


    This car is on Autopilot. What happens next? - BBC News
    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/business...t-happens-next




    * employees trained for testing of just a few cars across the country and where everyone is fully aware that the corporate reputation is on the line
    Last edited by KC; 23-06-2018 at 02:09 AM.

  34. #134

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    We're giving fines for distracted driving, we're reducing speed limits to 30km, we're trying to reduce deaths injuries through driving and We're increasingly allowing autopilot driving?


    When Edmonton, or Alberta, allows people to be driving Autopilot vehicles I will cease to drive. Simple as that. Quite frankly I will also never cycle on roads and will be more reluctant to walk on sidewalks.


    Defensive driving is an artform and as per the BBC video the "autopilot" doesn't even manage a routine driving scenario and did not spot the stopped car. Instead it crashes into it. The other hazard not reflected in the video is that failure to spot a stopped vehicle ahead on a highway and resulting in you stopping at all in that lane, on a highway, obviously puts you at extremely great risk of being rear ended.


    Could you imagine the terror of occupants when an autonomous vehicle does something like that which as a defensive driver you know to be crazy and potentially fatal?


    Theres no way you could get me into one of these.
    "if god exists and he allowed that to happen, then its better that he doesn't exist"

  35. #135

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    Quote Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
    We're giving fines for distracted driving, we're reducing speed limits to 30km, we're trying to reduce deaths injuries through driving and We're increasingly allowing autopilot driving?


    When Edmonton, or Alberta, allows people to be driving Autopilot vehicles I will cease to drive. Simple as that. Quite frankly I will also never cycle on roads and will be more reluctant to walk on sidewalks.


    Defensive driving is an artform and as per the BBC video the "autopilot" doesn't even manage a routine driving scenario and did not spot the stopped car. Instead it crashes into it. The other hazard not reflected in the video is that failure to spot a stopped vehicle ahead on a highway and resulting in you stopping at all in that lane, on a highway, obviously puts you at extremely great risk of being rear ended.


    Could you imagine the terror of occupants when an autonomous vehicle does something like that which as a defensive driver you know to be crazy and potentially fatal?


    Theres no way you could get me into one of these.
    It's why I don't see this driverless car thing working unless all cars are driverless. I'm talking 100% compliance. If people are behind the wheel you cannot foresee every scenario they do on the road. If you've driven long enough you have seen some really dumb stuff that defies logic so expecting a machine to figure out what the hell someone is doing behind the wheel seems to be asking a lot.

  36. #136

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    Autonomous vehicles will be moving brothels in no time, researchers predict

    https://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer...rchers-predict

  37. #137

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    Don't trust your car's pedestrian collision avoidance technology.

    BMW fails simple traffic test. Kills pedestrian dummies with gusto.

    https://driving.ca/bmw/auto-news/new...-braking-tests
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  38. #138

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    I hope we smarten up and make driverless cars on shared roadways illegal.

  39. #139

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    why? Antonomous vehicles will soon be able to have better detection of collusions that man could ever dream of. Quite the opposite, we should soon look to smarten up and make human-driven cars on shared roadways illegal.

  40. #140

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    You obviously did not see the BMW failures or tried driving new models that have self steering features that fail to operate with any reliability. My 2018 Honda Civic Touring self steering mode is unreliable (never able to keep it running for more than 3 km in optimum conditions) and the braking notice is also very erratic, sending alarms when not necessary but failing to alarm when more critical events have occured. My friend bought a 2019 Volvo XC90 and says the same about the Pilot Assist that he says is almost useless on dry roads and inoperable on snowy or wet roads.

    https://driving.ca/bmw/auto-news/new...-braking-tests

    THE SELF-DRIVING CAR THAT WILL NEVER ARRIVE
    Self-driving cars are delusional tech optimism rooted in greed, sorry

    Optimism about self-driving cars has sustained a fever pitch for so many years, at this point, that some die-hard boosters of the concept would still insist it’s an inevitability. Countless journalists who have experienced, with their own bodies and two eyes, a self-driving car journey, have declared it the inevitable future. These journeys have only taken place thus far on little obstacle courses that amount to little more than a carnival ride, or in at least one case, a road test where the car does fine by itself until it encounters any remotely challenging human-interaction scenario. At that point, the PR handler or engineer in the driver seat slickly takes over driving just for a split second, hoping the journalist doesn’t register that those split seconds are when the self-driving cars’ abilities, or lack thereof, matter the most.


    But it hasn’t been a great six months for self-driving vehicles. In March, a self-driving Uber car in Arizona killed a woman who was walking a bike across a street. Public relations messaging around the death first cast aspersions on the testing driver in the seat, saying he was a felon and then also maybe watching Hulu, and then on the victim, saying she was walking a bike across the street outside of a crosswalk, and how was a car AI to distinguish her as a thing it shouldn’t hit? Final reports suggested the car’s emergency braking system had been disabled by Uber itself, and that was the ultimate cause of the incident.


    Laying the blame on a critical failure conveniently sidesteps the whole issue of whether a self-driving car can adequately identify a thing it shouldn’t run into, which should be almost the entire point of a car that drives itself. But then, per the Verge, “the vehicle decided it needed to brake 1.3 seconds before striking a pedestrian, but Uber had previously disabled the Volvo’s automatic emergency braking system in order to prevent erratic driving.” The car correctly identified a threat, but in a broken-clock-is-right-twice-a-day way, such that its threat identification reaction had become so annoying and frequent it was turned off.
    https://theoutline.com/post/5964/the...=1&zi=35qj7zwq
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  41. #141

    Default

    Early days. The problem is the recent rush to get them on the market. I figure they need another 10 years or so to attain decent capabilities. No need to tar and feather something that has a huge potential to make life better (and longer for many).


    Look at a the other devices, infrastructure and technologies we have today that were a mixed bag of costs and benefits early on but got better and safer over time. The car itself is a great example. Basically death traps early on and right up until the 1960s. Far higher death rates than rail, horse and buggy, etc. There was carnage on the roads!


    Check this out:

    The US rate has fallen from 24 down to 1.2 “Fatalities per 100 million VMT”. For nearly two decades they used to loose upwards of 50,000 people a year!!!

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moto...n_U.S._by_year
    Last edited by KC; 25-02-2019 at 03:06 PM.

  42. #142

  43. #143

    Default

    Yeah but a bit of slush, snow or a faulty sensor did not cause a 1960's car to crash.

    I am not against improved technology but comparing the physical improvements to cars like crumple zones, collapsing steering wheel columns, padded dashboards, safer fuel tanks, improved suspensions , airbags and many other advances were passive safety systems. Autonomous cars rely on active safety systems and computers making decisions. The auto industry is rife with a history of poor quality, cheap parts, overselling features and unproven technology. The mantra, "Don't buy the first model year of a new car".

    Compounding the problem is that cars are not maintained like airliners with regular maintenance and safety inspections. Additionally, drivers are often poorly trained, don't read their car's manual and often have never even cracked open their copy. Their reliance on unproven technology and trust that it may be safer in all condition is fraught with risk. No matter how good the technology, driving at high speed on black ice while texting your girlfriend oblivious to the conditions and trusting your car to get you home is a fool's paradise.

    Already there are lawsuits against manufacturers and this will kill the technology simply because the marketing is too far ahead of the science and history will only repeat itself.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  44. #144

    Default

    When you mention the owners manuals, you’re actually making a good case for autonomous cars.

    The software updates will be rolled out to all cars and they will have to support old models for a long time or hand over the code to another entity.

    Right now about 3,000+ people die everyday in car accidents. Humans aren’t doing all they well as is.


    NASA - Shuttle Computers Navigate Record of Reliability

    "The current quality of this software system is really almost unimaginable," said USA's Jim Orr, who has been working with the shuttle's computer systems and software in different positions since 1978. "It's that good."

    The networked computers are set up so that four are operational and one is a backup that could fly the launch and entry if the others failed. The computers receive their information from a host of sensors and actuators throughout the orbiter, external fuel tank and solid rocket boosters.

    It sounds like a lot of work for any electronic device, let alone ones that are running on far less memory than a cell phone. And keep in mind that the first few dozen shuttle missions used the first-generation GPCs, which boasted memory capacities of 416 kilobytes and were a third as fast. They also weighed twice as much and it took two boxes to do the job of one of today's GPCs.

    That's where the software comes in.

    Just like the computers themselves, the software code involved is much smaller than modern commercial counterparts. The shuttle's primary flight software contains about 400,000 lines of code. For comparison, a Windows operating system package includes millions of lines of source code.

    "From a complexity point of view, Microsoft Windows is probably more complex because it has to do so very, very, very much," Orr said.

    Shuttle programmers, on the other hand, focus solely on what the software must do for a mission to succeed. The machines simply don't have the room to support programming for other things.

    "There are a lot of things that have to happen very precisely," Orr said.

    Plus, shuttle software is written to successfully adjust to failures, such as when one...”

    https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/s...computers.html
    Last edited by KC; 25-02-2019 at 05:52 PM.

  45. #145

    Default

    New technology can be judged differently.

    Example.

    The Titanic sunk on its maiden voyage with 1517 lives lost but people kept using passenger liners. My uncle survived the worst maritime sinking in history with up to 9,000 lives lost and people kept taking ocean voyages.

    Airships had done hundreds of thousands of miles of air travel and on its second season, it caught fire with only 35 lives lost and it spelled the end of airships .

    A few major crashes with autonomous vehicles such as running down children in a crosswalk and they will be banned forever.
    Last edited by Edmonton PRT; 25-02-2019 at 05:54 PM.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  46. #146

    Default

    The Electronic Highway: How 1960s Visionaries Presaged Today's Autonomous Vehicles


    As you read these excerpts, try to keep in mind that the article was published in 1969, and that the 1980s, a decade away, represented the distant future:
    An examination of traffic conditions today—congested roadways, a large number of accidents and fatalities, extremely powerful automobiles—indicates the need for improvements in our highway system. Unfortunately, conditions will be much worse in the next decade, for it is predicted that the total number of vehicles registered in the United States in 1980 will be 62 percent greater in 1960, and 75 percent more vehicle miles will be traveled. If one should look further ahead to the turn of the century, he would see vast sprawling supercities, with populations characterized by adequate incomes, longer life-spans, and increased amounts of leisure time. One predictable result is greatly increased travel. The resulting traffic situation could be chaotic, unless some changes are instituted beforehand.

    It is obvious that the traffic problems cannot be solved simply by building more and larger highways, for the for costs are too high, both in dollars and in the amount of land. Many alternative solutions have been suggested: high-speed surface rail transportation; a high-speed, electrically powered, air-cushioned surface transportation system… However, in the opinion of the writers, a majority of the of the public will not be satisfied with only city-to-city transit or even neighborhood-to-neighborhood transit via some form of public transportation. One needs only to witness the common use of private automobiles where such transit already exists. The role of a personal transportation unit is certainly justified by the mobility, privacy, and freedom afforded the occupants. It seems certain that this freedom, which dictates the spatial pattern of their lives, will not be relinquished.


    1960s CitroŽn DS driverless car test

    Last edited by Edmonton PRT; 25-02-2019 at 06:17 PM.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  47. #147

    Default

    Now this is interesting:



    Self-Driving Cars' Massive Power Consumption Is Becoming a Problem | WIRED
    “...

    A production car you can buy today, with just cameras and radar, generates something like 6 gigabytes of data every 30 seconds. It's even more for a self-driver, with additional sensors like lidar. All the data needs to be combined, sorted, and turned into a robot-friendly picture of the world, with instructions on how to move through it. That takes huge computing power, which means huge electricity demands. Prototypes use around 2,500 watts, enough to light 40 incandescent light bulbs.

    “To put such a system into a combustion-engined car doesn’t make any sense, because the fuel consumption will go up tremendously,” says Wilko Stark, Mercedes-Benz's vice president of strategy. Switch over to electric cars, and that draw translates to reduced range, because power from the battery goes to the computers instead of the motors. ...”

    https://www.wired.com/story/self-dri...n-nvidia-chip/

    I imagine interconnecting vehicles, smartphones, etc. would dramatically cut the power needs. If the system already registers say 90% of what’s around it and approaching it (even we’ll beyond the sight of human drivers), then it would focus on anomalies like anarchists, unabombers and oghers without smartphones glued to their heads, dogs (though they soon should have tracking collars), birds, falling rocks, etc.



    Best of Dug from Up - YouTube
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LEZ_xL...ature=youtu.be


    "Bananas" Parking Clip - YouTube
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Y16HUOAmT0
    Last edited by KC; 25-02-2019 at 07:13 PM.

  48. #148

    Default

    Just watching CBC about all the Hyundai engine failures that have failed on drivers doing 120kph and have caused 300 engine fires. This and all the recalls on all brands gives consumers little confidence that the failure prone auto industry can pull off a reliable and safer driverless car.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  49. #149

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    Just watching CBC about all the Hyundai engine failures that have failed on drivers doing 120kph and have caused 300 engine fires. This and all the recalls on all brands gives consumers little confidence that the failure prone auto industry can pull off a reliable and safer driverless car.
    Yet people continue to buy cars.

    Anyone buy a computer in the last 40 years?

    Get on a plane?


    VW says driverless vehicles have limited appeal and high cost | Reuters
    https://www.reuters.com/article/auto...-idUSL5N20S64F
    Last edited by KC; 06-03-2019 at 08:33 PM.

  50. #150

    Default

    What other choice for you have? A horse?

    Between a normal car and a driverless car, I trust my driving over anything that has Microsoft written on the hood.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  51. #151

    Default

    People like you probably won’t be the initial target market.

    Kids that don’t want to be bothered getting a drivers license.
    People that can’t get a drivers license.
    People that are going to lose their drivers license. (Old age)
    People that need one vehicle to serve several family members. ...

  52. #152

    Default

    Yeah but when they die in car due to a computer glitch, you don't think that their family won't sue the manufacturer?
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  53. #153

    Default

    One example, Boeing 737 Max 8
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  54. #154
    C2E SME
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Downtown Edmonton
    Posts
    11,334

    Default

    Why don't you tally all commercial flight crashes between human and computer error, and we'll see who "wins"?

  55. #155

    Default

    If you believe that computers can do it better, would you take a flight without pilots? In both instances, the Boeing 737 Max 8's were flying in clear skies and then plunged to the ground.

    I will say again, the playing field is not even.

    If you compare transatlantic voyages by ocean liners vs Zeppelins, a single crash where most people survived doomed the Hindenburg and airships forever.

    A few people killed due to computer glitches in driverless cars and they too will be doomed forever.

    Airliners are strictly controlled, pilots constantly trained and evaluated, regular maintenance and safety inspections. Yet, we both agree that pilots are the major cause of accidents but computers have yet to have total control so the jury is still out. Computers have failed, software and sensors placing an aircraft in peril and pilots are there to solve the problem and many have been able to bring the plane safely to the ground.

    The same level of care for automobile drivers is not the standard. There is not constant training and evaluations, no mandated regular maintenance and safety inspections.

    Remember, the auto industry is rife with mistakes, factory defects, poor design, safety flaws, recalls and a lack of maintenance.

    And you expect drivers to trust automakers and MicroSoft to drive your car?







    The untold story of QF72: What happens when 'psycho' automation leaves pilots powerless?
    For the first time, the captain of the imperilled Qantas Flight 72 reveals his horrific experience of automation's dark side: when one computer "went psycho" and put more than 300 passengers at risk.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/the...11-gw26ae.html
    "We were never given any hint during our conversion course to fly this aeroplane that this could happen. And even, I think, the manufacturer felt this could never happen. It's not their intention to build an aeroplane that is going to go completely haywire and try and kill you."

    The events of October 7, 2008, are not merely about how three Qantas pilots found themselves fighting to save a passenger plane from itself. It serves as a cautionary tale as society accelerates towards a world of automation and artificial intelligence.

    Airplane computer systems can be hacked, report says
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/airplan...d-report-says/


    Airline computer outages like Delta’s are bound to repeat themselves. Here’s what to know.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifes...=.a73a77b226a9
    Catastrophic computer outages that paralyze an entire airline are few and far between. Except this summer.

    Last month, Southwest Airlines canceled 2,300 flights after a router in one of its data centers failed, delaying hundreds of thousands of passengers. And last week, Delta Air Lines suffered a massive computer failure, which triggered the cancellation of 451 flights in a single morning.

    10 Air Disasters Caused By Computer Errors

    https://www.bestcomputersciencedegre...mputer-errors/
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  56. #156

    Default

    Now imagine the hackers doing this to millions of cars at once.

    I'm not saying that we shouldn't be working on driverless cars but we need to be aware that hackers and terrorists will be doing the same.

    HACKERS REMOTELY KILL A JEEP ON THE HIGHWAY—WITH ME IN IT

    I WAS DRIVING 70 mph on the edge of downtown St. Louis when the exploit began to take hold.


    Though I hadn't touched the dashboard, the vents in the Jeep Cherokee started blasting cold air at the maximum setting, chilling the sweat on my back through the in-seat climate control system. Next the radio switched to the local hip hop station and began blaring Skee-lo at full volume. I spun the control knob left and hit the power button, to no avail. Then the windshield wipers turned on, and wiper fluid blurred the glass.


    As I tried to cope with all this, a picture of the two hackers performing these stunts appeared on the car's digital display: Charlie Miller and Chris Valasek, wearing their trademark track suits. A nice touch, I thought.


    The Jeep’s strange behavior wasn’t entirely unexpected. I'd come to St. Louis to be Miller and Valasek's digital crash-test dummy, a willing subject on whom they could test the car-hacking research they'd been doing over the past year. The result of their work was a hacking technique—what the security industry calls a zero-day exploit—that can target Jeep Cherokees and give the attacker wireless control, via the Internet, to any of thousands of vehicles.

    https://www.wired.com/2015/07/hacker...-jeep-highway/

  57. #157

    Default

    If computers have trouble in airplanes with clear blue skies, what can we expect from driverless cars in real world conditions?

    A California road is one thing, what about in Canada?

    Here are examples of pictures I took in Montreal yesterday

    Will a computer see the potholes and pool of water? Will they splash the pedestrian on the sidewalk corner?


    more potholes, real axle busters.



    Will driverless cars "see" pools of water on highways and roads? A 2" pool can easily cause aquaplaning and cause a car to lose control.
    This 200 ft long pool is up to 6" deep and punctuated with large potholes. Drivers went very slow and cautious. The pedestrian on the sidewalk did not get splashed.


    Here is a typical street parking scenario. How will a driverless car know how soft or hard is the snow. Will it even try to park in a rough spot? Will it get stuck. Will the computer get confused and shut down. Does the computer know that parking will be banned overnight for snow removal? (note orange signs)


    Will the computer park 6" beside the curb and get stuck? Will it be smart enough to even know where the curb is? Will it park like other drivers away from the curb and prevent getting stuck? (note more parking bans)



    In Montreal and elsewhere in Canada, people have to cope with winter parking. Here people back in at an angle to prevent getting stuck. As you can see, some are angled in and others parallel parked depending on the circumstances. Do you think any computer could figure this out?


    Here is an example from last year


    These examples are just a few examples that exist in many cities, towns and elsewhere in Canada and northern US states.

    This is reality, it is not a test.
    Last edited by Edmonton PRT; 12-03-2019 at 04:41 PM.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  58. #158

    Default

    Ethiopia crash of Boeing 737 Max might be latest example of backfiring safety efforts
    James Bovard, Opinion columnist Published 9:25 a.m. ET March 12, 2019
    If software and sensors are to blame, then the Boeing accidents are another reminder that safety policies can have unintended fatal consequences.
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...mn/3133013002/
    If software and sensors designed to prevent crashes actually increased the risk of catastrophe, then the Boeing accidents are another reminder that safety policies can have unintended fatal consequences.


    Unfortunately, policymakers routinely ignore the unforeseen costs of well-intended safety efforts. For instance, the Transportation Security Administration, seeking to make air travel perfectly safe from terrorists in the months after 9/11, spawned airport checkpoint regimes that are so intrusive that many Americans choose to drive instead. A Cornell University study estimated that TSA’s heavy-handed policies helped boost traffic fatalities by at least 1,200 additional deaths.


    A Business Week analysis noted, “To make flying as dangerous as using a car, a four-plane disaster on the scale of 9/11 would have to occur every month, according to an analysis published in the American Scientist.…People switching from air to road transportation in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks led to an increase of 242 driving fatalities per month — which means that a lot more people died on the roads as an indirect result of 9/11 than died from being on the planes that terrible day.”

    Boeing’s market value takes $25B hit as countries ground 737 MAX 8 aircraft

    https://globalnews.ca/news/5048105/b...n-plane-crash/
    Last edited by Edmonton PRT; 12-03-2019 at 04:47 PM.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  59. #159

    Default

    Wow, you and Trump may be right about the technology getting ahead of itself.


    Whatabout...


    The Day - Auto evolution: The surprising history of some everyday vehicle features - News from southeastern Connecticut

    Electronic stability control

    Electronic stability control uses sensors to measure data such as turning force, lateral acceleration, and the angle of the steering wheel to determine if the vehicle is traveling the way the driver wants it to. If not, it automatically activates the brakes on individual wheels or selectively uses the throttle to help restore control. The feature is especially useful during evasive maneuvers, as it helps prevent the vehicle from rolling over.

    Although the system has its roots in traction control systems developed in the 1980s, the invention of electronic stability control is credited to engineer Frank-Werner Mohn. During a Mercedes-Benz test trip in 1989, Mohn lost control on an icy road in Sweden and wound up in a ditch. The incident inspired the idea of connecting a vehicle's antilock brake system to the onboard computer to make it more effective.

    Electronic stability control was successfully ...”



    https://www.theday.com/article/20190218/BIZ09/190219597
    Last edited by KC; 12-03-2019 at 07:58 PM.

  60. #160

    Default

    What about autopilot?

    The first was developed by the Sperry Corporation in 1912. We still put pilots in planes.

    There is a huge difference between autopilot and driverless cars, especially with millions of non-autonomous cars and pedestrians in a dynamic interaction where two cars approach each other on a highway at 220 kph, less than a meter apart. Can you tell me where autopilots on aircraft are used where airliners are even 100 meters apart?
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  61. #161

    Default

    There's no thread for it and discussion seems to have gravitated here, so...

    The Preliminary Report on the Indonesian crash:
    http://knkt.dephub.go.id/knkt/ntsc_a...y%20Report.pdf
    I am in no way entitled to your opinion...

  62. #162

    Default

    Husband tests Tesla auto-braking on wife, nearly hits her
    A man demos how not to test Autopilot's features
    https://driving.ca/auto-news/news/ne...early-hits-her
    A driver wishing to test his Tesla’s Autopilot Emergency Braking system and the strength of his marriage found a willing pedestrian subject in his wife. The video of the stunt showed the Model S braking automatically from 30 km/h when the woman suddenly steps in front of it. Take two doesn’t go so smoothly, requiring the man to apply the brakes himself and narrowly missing his partner. The video has since been removed.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  63. #163

    Default

    Smile! You’re on Volvo’s privacy-invading cameras | Driving

    https://postmediadriving.wordpress.c...vading-cameras

  64. #164
    I'd rather C2E than work!
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    edmonton
    Posts
    4,757

    Default

    ^ Another use for a spot of duct tape.
    Nisi Dominus Frustra

  65. #165

    Default

    Or a 1/4" drill

    Last edited by Edmonton PRT; 25-03-2019 at 08:29 AM.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  66. #166

    Default

    Carful PRT Central is going to send killer probes back through time to Assassinate you if you pose too much of a threat...

    (Star Trek Discovery)

  67. #167

    Default

    Researchers trick Tesla Autopilot into steering into oncoming traffic
    Stickers that are invisible to drivers and fool autopilot.

    https://arstechnica.com/information-...oming-traffic/

    Tesla autopilot module's lane recognition function has a good robustness in an ordinary external environment (no strong light, rain, snow, sand and dust interference), but it still doesn't handle the situation correctly in our test scenario. This kind of attack is simple to deploy, and the materials are easy to obtain. As we talked in the previous introduction of Tesla's lane recognition function, Tesla uses a pure computer vision solution for lane recognition, and we found in this attack experiment that the vehicle driving decision is only based on computer vision lane recognition results. Our experiments proved that this architecture has security risks and reverse lane recognition is one of the necessary functions for autonomous driving in non-closed roads.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  68. #168

    Default

    Tesla On Autopilot Slams Into Stalled Car On Highway, Expect More Of This
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/lanceel...-more-of-this/
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  69. #169

    Default

    Tesla drivers are getting caught sleeping on Autopilot


    https://electrek.co/2019/06/16/tesla...topilot-blame/

    “Images and video were captured by a passenger in Miladinovich’s [the witness’s] car. He said the Tesla driver appeared slumped over with something tied around the steering wheel.

    “If his little thing tied around that steering wheel fell off, and he was still sleeping, he would have slammed into somebody going 65 miles per hour,” Miladinovich said.”

    He is probably referring to an Autopilot nag defeating device, like the Autopilot Buddy, which was shut down by NHTSA last summer and later relaunched as ‘phone mount’ to get around the ban.

    The device is used to trick the Autopilot system into thinking that someone is applying pressure to the steering wheel in order for it to stay active
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