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Thread: Trump Effect - Household Income Hits 15-Year High

  1. #501
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    US soybean sales to China down 94 percent amid Trump tariffs: report


    “I’m trying to follow and figure out who the winners are in this tariff war,” said Greg Gebeke, who farms 5,000 acres outside of Arthur, N.D. “I know who one of the losers are and that’s us. And that’s painful.”
    Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue said late last month that the Department of Agriculture will not extend into 2019 an up-to-$12 billion aid package that was announced to help farmers impacted by Trump's policies."Farmers are very resilient and adept in making their planning and marketing decisions based on the current market,” Perdue told reporters."These facts are known now ... So farmers, even under financial duress, will make their best business decision for 2019 without the expectation of a market facilitation program."
    An administration of the people. Create policy that destroys their livelihood, and then tell them they can figure out how to pull through it.

  2. #502
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    Trump’s “Incredible” Foxconn Deal Turns Out to Be a Another Massive Con Job


    The deal will cost taxpayers more than $4.5 billion in subsidies, but because manufacturing companies in Wisconsin are already exempt from paying taxes, “Foxconn, which generated a hundred and fifty-eight billion dollars in revenue last year, will receive much of this subsidy in direct cash payments from taxpayers”—the largest subsidy given to a foreign corporation in U.S. history
    It's estimated that this will create 3000 jobs, or $1.5 million per job. Real good use of money, for corporate welfare that is. Even if it created the original 13,000 stated, that's $350,000 per job.

    The town’s Village Board of Trustees has been using eminent domain to expel obstinate homeowners, forcing them to “sell at a price determined by the village.” They’ve been able to do so by decreeing the 2,800-acre area around the plant “blighted,” a designation typically reserved for property that is “detrimental to the public health, safety, or welfare,” but which the board has extended to include property that “impairs or arrests the sound growth of the community

  3. #503

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    Democrats takeover the US House and...

    The S&P500 is up today.

    The Dow Jones is up today.

    The Nasdaq Composite is up today.
    Last edited by KC; 07-11-2018 at 09:20 AM.

  4. #504

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    "Fake news. Sad!" - Trump

  5. #505

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Democrats takeover the US House and...

    The S&P500 is up today.

    The Dow Jones is up today.

    The Nasdaq Composite is up today.

    Yup. Just as I said earlier, markets were stagnant because of the election. Now that the midterm election is over things are back to normal.

  6. #506

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    Trump’s Stock Market Returns Actually Pale In Comparison To Most Of His Predecessors

    Dec 5, 2018

    Excerpt:

    “Putting aside the overall veracity of that statement for a moment, the simple truth is that President Trump is absolutely correct about that first phrase– the stock market is at an all-time high. It has made significant gains in President Trump’s two years, though nowhere near 50 percent. What President Trump fails to mention, however, is that pretty much every President since Herbert Hoover has been able to claim that the stock market is at an all-time high at some point during their presidency. With economic growth and inflation, it is just the nature of the beast.”

    https://www.inquisitr.com/5196128/tr...-predecessors/

    Bolding mjne
    Last edited by KC; 27-12-2018 at 05:40 PM.

  7. #507

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    Thanks KC

    From your link
    Catherine RampellPresidents don't control stock markets, market is not the economy, etc. Still, once upon a time, Trump used to brag that market gains were a good metric of his success.
    Here's how S&P 500 has fared under Trump vs. Obama, through comparable dates in their respective presidencies


    Obama got kicked in the shins by Bush's recession but even so, beat the pants off Trump. The chart ends just before the terrible December of 2018...
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  8. #508

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    China’s Annual Trade Surplus With U.S. Hits Record Despite Trump’s Tariff Offensive - WSJ

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-...ve-11547439977



    China's weakening trade figures should concern us all - BBC News
    “Since the financial crash of 2008, China's leadership has sought to keep up its pace of economic growth through a massive expansion of lending.
    Debt as a proportion of the economy has soared, from 140% of GDP in 2007 to nearly 260% now.
    Infrastructure spending has mushroomed, with thousands of miles of new railways and dozens of new underground systems and airports constructed.
    China's economy is used to a hefty and regular dose of stimulus.
    ...”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46865466



    Last edited by KC; 14-01-2019 at 09:05 PM.

  9. #509
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    It's almost like trade deficits are a direct result of the economic fundamentals of countries like savings and investment rates: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2...t-are-not-true

  10. #510

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    Don't worry, the benefits of the tax cuts will trickle down.

    In fact, tax revenue in general, and corporate tax revenue in particular, have dropped — an unusual event for an economy running at full capacity. Bloomberg’s Stephen Gandel recently crunched the numbers and found the tax cuts hemorrhaging revenue:



    Not only was the Republican assumption that zero revenue would be lost too optimistic, and not only was the more modest “dynamic” model that presumed just a trillion-dollar revenue loss too optimistic, but the “static” revenue model was also too optimistic. The tax cuts are losing more than forecasters predicted even when they assumed it would do nothing to encourage growth.


    And as for that spike in corporate investment last year? Alexander Arnon suggests the entire thing was caused by higher oil prices. As oil prices go up, energy firms invest more money in sucking it out of the ground. “The response to the rise in oil prices,” he writes, “explains the entire increase in the growth rate of investment in 2018.”

    http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/...a-failure.html

  11. #511

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    Trickle down economics.

    Any economic plan with the first syllable is "Trick" is as obvious as the nose on your face...

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  12. #512

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    So much winning!

    Trump’s tariffs completely wiped out Harley-Davidson profits last quarter

    Bloomberg reports that Harley-Davidson “barely broke even” in its fourth-quarter 2018 earnings report, as the president’s trade wars with China and other nations continued to take their toll.


    Without the costs of the tariffs, the company would have posted earnings of $0.17 per share, which was a big miss compared to the consensus estimate of $0.29 per share. This was Harley-Davidson’s biggest miss of the consensus estimate since early 2009, when the entire country was reeling from the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/tru...-last-quarter/

  13. #513

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    Suckers!

    ‘I trusted you!’ Trump voters seethe after realizing they’re getting screwed by the GOP’s tax plan

    Even though the 2017 GOP tax cut is leading to spiking federal deficits thanks to its generous benefits to corporations, many middle-class Americans are winding up having to pay more because the bill eliminated multiple deductions used by middle-class families to lower their annual tax payments.


    Among other things, the tax bill capped deductions for taxes paid to state and local governments, while massively increasing the amount of money you must donate to qualify for a charitable giving deduction.

    I am a Republican voter. I just did our taxes.


    The @GOP tax bill cost my family THOUSANDS of dollars this year on our return due to changes, thereby hitting us with the LARGEST tax increase of our lives.


    We are middle-class homeowners, and you raised our taxes.


    Infuriating!
    I have to pay $2000 MORE in taxes this year! What happened?? I voted for you and thought you were fixing this, not making it worse!? I thought I would get money back this year!?
    Voted for you . Family of
    2 hard working N.Y. cops. Did taxes for years we would pay more and get a refund at the end of the year to help pay debt . First time in 30 years We had to pay more in Federal
    Taxes. I’m disgusted
    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/tru...gops-tax-plan/

  14. #514

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    Where did the money go?

    Trumps "tax cut" adds $2 Trillion to national debt. Do the math. American families should see an average of $22,000 in tax cuts for a family of four over the past 2 years. Instead many are seeing less money in their tax returns.

    All they got was Trump Change...



    National debt tops $22 trillion for the first time as experts warn of ripple effects
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...er/2849978002/
    WASHINGTON – The national debt surpassed $22 trillion for the first time on Tuesday, a milestone that experts warned is further proof the country is on an unsustainable financial path that could jeopardize the economic security of every American.

    The Treasury Department reported the debt hit $22.012 trillion, a jump of more than $30 billion in just this month.


    The national debt has been rising at a faster rate following the passage of President Donald Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax-cut package a little more than a year ago and as the result of congressional efforts to increase spending on domestic and military programs. The nation has added more than $1 trillion in debt in the last 11 months alone.


    “Reaching this unfortunate milestone so rapidly is the latest sign that our fiscal situation is not only unsustainable but accelerating,” said Michael A. Peterson, chief executive officer of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a nonpartisan organization working to address the country’s long-term fiscal challenges.

    Average tax refunds are down 8.4% in the wake of Trump tax cuts
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/11/aver...-tax-cuts.html
    The total number of returns received in the week ending Feb. 1, 16.04 million, was down 12.4 percent from the week that ended on Feb. 2, 2018, according to the IRS.

    Only 13.31 million returns were processed, down 25.8 percent from the year before.

    The average refund of $1,865 was 8.4 percent smaller than the average refund in the period last year.
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  15. #515

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    I don’t know what the cumulative increase in jobs in the US has been (maybe 4 million new jobs?) but many jobs would pay more than $22,000/yr. Therefore those new workers would capture some of the money and so that would decrease returns the rest.

    Then there’s the nature of the tax cuts which everyone knew was going to benefit the rich more than the poor. Relatively massive amounts and proportions of the money paid in taxes and therefore not paid in taxes after tax cuts, related to the incomes of the rich. If you’re an average or low income American not paying a lot of the share of total taxes in the first place, how could you expect a great return from tax cuts?
    Last edited by KC; 13-02-2019 at 09:11 PM.

  16. #516

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    Quote Originally Posted by kkozoriz View Post
    Suckers!

    ‘I trusted you!’ Trump voters seethe after realizing they’re getting screwed by the GOP’s tax plan

    Even though the 2017 GOP tax cut is leading to spiking federal deficits thanks to its generous benefits to corporations, many middle-class Americans are winding up having to pay more because the bill eliminated multiple deductions used by middle-class families to lower their annual tax payments.


    Among other things, the tax bill capped deductions for taxes paid to state and local governments, while massively increasing the amount of money you must donate to qualify for a charitable giving deduction.

    I am a Republican voter. I just did our taxes.


    The @GOP tax bill cost my family THOUSANDS of dollars this year on our return due to changes, thereby hitting us with the LARGEST tax increase of our lives.


    We are middle-class homeowners, and you raised our taxes.


    Infuriating!
    I have to pay $2000 MORE in taxes this year! What happened?? I voted for you and thought you were fixing this, not making it worse!? I thought I would get money back this year!?
    Voted for you . Family of
    2 hard working N.Y. cops. Did taxes for years we would pay more and get a refund at the end of the year to help pay debt . First time in 30 years We had to pay more in Federal
    Taxes. I’m disgusted
    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/tru...gops-tax-plan/
    Can’t believe any of that. We heard the same things about the carbon taxes here by people totally clueless and mistaken about even their very own taxes. Still hearing it!

    Moreover, everybody knew that the tax cuts benefited the rich and that they were going to be paid through government debt.

  17. #517

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    I don’t know what the cumulative increase in jobs in the US has been (maybe 4 million new jobs?) but many jobs would pay more than $22,000/yr. Therefore those new workers would capture some of the money and so that would decrease returns the rest.

    Then there’s the nature of the tax cuts which everyone knew was going to benefit the rich more than the poor. Relatively massive amounts and proportions of the money paid in taxes and therefore not paid in taxes after tax cuts, related to the incomes of the rich. If you’re an average or low income American not paying a lot of the share of total taxes in the first place, how could you expect a great return from tax cuts?
    Trump promised that the national debt would go down because he knew more about debt than anyone "bigly". The tax cuts did not stimulate the economy as promised. The job market grew slower under Trump than under Obama and the National Debt is growing faster than ever.

    Instead of reducing the debt, the Trump tax cuts reduced revenue and increasing costs of government have narrated the debt at an ever increasing rate. Republican trickle down economics since Reagan's failed stimulus has proven time and time again to increase the debt and benefit the rich. Statistics prove that only Democrats have been able to lower the debt.


    US national debt has increased $2 trillion since Donald Trump took office, new data shows
    President reportedly not concerned because 'I won't be there'


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/us-national-debt-2-trillion-donald-trump-presidency-deficit-treasury-congressional-budget-office-a8710546.html
    The US national debt has increased by more than $2 trillion dollars since Donald Trump entered the White House, according to new data.
    Figures released by the Treasury Department showed the debt stood at $21.974 trillion at the end of 2018, more than $2 trillion higher than when Mr Trump took office.


    The debt stood represented 78 per cent of the US’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the fiscal year 2018, the highest percentage since 1950, analysis by CNN concluded.
    The deficit, which measures the difference between what the government spends and what it collects, rose to 3.8 per cent of GDP in 2018, up from 3.5 per cent in 2017.


    The national debt has been rising in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, when Congress and Barack Obama approved stimulus funding in order to keep the economy afloat. When Mr Trump first took office, having vowed to reduce it to zero in eight years it, it began to go down.
    But analysts say it started to increase again as a result of a Republican tax cut, passed at the end of 2017, that a represented the largest of its kind in a generation.


    According to the Congressional Budget Office, debt could grow to 96 per cent of GDP (or $29 trillion) by 2028.


    “Three decades from now, for instance, debt held by the public is projected to be about twice as high in relation to GDP as it is this year—which would be a higher ratio than the United States has ever recorded,” it said in a new report.
    Trump Tells O'Reilly Tackling $21T Nat'l Debt Will Be 'Easy'

    Last edited by Edmonton PRT; 14-02-2019 at 06:44 AM.
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  18. #518

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    He’s probably hoping for a major stock market decline and market volatility to get everyone selling their holdings.

  19. #519

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    Trump thinks that the stock market is directly connected to the National Debt.

    No Mr. President, its not.

    http://www.usdebtclock.org/
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  20. #520

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    Trump promised that he could eliminate the debt, not just the deficit, in eight years.

    April 2, 2016

    DT: We’ve got to get rid of — I talked about bubble. We’ve got to get rid of the $19 trillion in debt.


    BW: How long would that take?


    DT: I think I could do it fairly quickly, because of the fact the numbers . . . .


    BW: What’s fairly quickly?


    DT: Well, I would say over a period of eight years.

    https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...-debt-8-years/

  21. #521

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    Trump could not even run even one of his four casinos with a profit and went heavily into debt.

    Who in their right mind would trust Trump to run the US government?
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  22. #522

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    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    Trump could not even run even one of his four casinos with a profit and went heavily into debt.

    Who in their right mind would trust Trump to run the US government?
    Angry upset people who feared the loss or further degradation of their lifestyles.... people who think that “others” are the source of their problems. Also.... lots of old white men and the women who believe making statements about sexual assault is ok as well as “just part of the job” cause men will be men.

    That’s who.

  23. #523

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    Yup, xenophobes, racists, bigots and subservient patriarchs who desire an American monarch. Also known as "Trump's Base"
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  24. #524

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    Friday - big drop

    “DOW drops more than 450 points, S&P 500 posts worst day since ...”


    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/stoc...s-persist.html

  25. #525

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    Quote Originally Posted by edmonton daily photo View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Edmonton PRT View Post
    Trump could not even run even one of his four casinos with a profit and went heavily into debt.

    Who in their right mind would trust Trump to run the US government?
    Angry upset people who feared the loss or further degradation of their lifestyles.... people who think that “others” are the source of their problems. Also.... lots of old white men and the women who believe making statements about sexual assault is ok as well as “just part of the job” cause men will be men.

    That’s who.
    The thing is, thinking that others may be the source of problems, can be correct thinking.

  26. #526

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    US economy grows faster than expected - BBC News

    “Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross welcomed the data, saying: "The Trump economy has repeatedly defied the sceptics who predicted an economic downturn and has restored America's position in the world as a consistent source of economic growth."

    Trade helped to boost growth in the first quarter, as exports rose while imports fell. Companies also built up inventories of goods at the fastest rate since the second quarter of 2015.


    “All that said, some observers point out that the first estimate for this quarter tends to be revised upwards. So we could yet end up with an even stronger figure.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48067746





    And the news just a couple weeks ago:






    Slower US growth means no rate rise for 2019, says Fed - BBC News

    “There is also a striking contrast between the growth that Feds policymakers think the US can sustain - about 2% - and what President Trump's administration believes is achievable, which is more like 3%.

    That difference matters. If at some stage in the future the Fed thinks the economy is overheating it will raise rates.“

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47644267
    Last edited by KC; 26-04-2019 at 09:24 AM.

  27. #527

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    It's not all sunshine.

    US economy posts strong first quarter, but consumer spending slows

    Underlying components in the report, however, suggest a broadly anticipated slowdown is still underway.


    Growth was driven in part by higher inventories, especially in the manufacturing industry, which can indicate that businesses are stockpiling goods rather than selling them. Higher inventories can often foreshadow slower growth in the next quarter. Domestic private sales, which subtract out imports and exports as well as government spending, decelerated to half the rate of the previous quarter — the smallest gain in three years.


    Imports collapsed, in part because businesses had rushed to bring in goods from overseas in advance of the Trump administration's tariffs last year. "With stock rooms and backlots now filling up, businesses saw no reason to buy more," wrote Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist with the Economic Outlook Group. "Worse, many companies now fear it will take far longer to unload all this inventory, given the apparent underlying weakness in consumer and business demand.


    Meanwhile, consumer spending slowed, in part due to weak sales of goods, in particular light trucks. Business investment also slowed from the previous quarter, with agricultural machinery and office furniture posting the largest declines. The biggest boost for business investment came from intellectual property products. Exports are expected to slow, facing headwinds from a strengthening dollar.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/26/econo...-q1/index.html

  28. #528

    Default

    So much winning.

    Trump's washing machine tariffs raised dryer costs as well—and have cost U.S. consumers $1.5 billion

    But the researchers found something unexpected as well: The tariffs on washing machines also raised prices on dryers. In response to a 20 percent tariff on washing machines, manufacturers raised the prices of both washers and driers by about 12 percent each. It makes sense; washers and dryers are typically bought as a pair, and hiking the price of dryers to offset tariffs for washers, keeping the retail price of each in rough parity, may be less noticeable to consumers than a sharp rise in washing machines alone.


    You'll note that 12 percent and 12 percent add up to more than the 20 percent tariff rate: Manufacturers took the opportunity to boost prices beyond what was necessary simply to recoup tariff costs.


    So what's the bottom line? As job creation and protection device, Trump's global tariffs have been gaudily expensive. About 1,800 American jobs were created from foreign manufacturers increasing production here to avoid the new tariffs. But the additional costs to American consumers amounted to $1.5 billion—meaning the price paid for that small manufacturing shift was about $820,000 per created job.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...rs-1-5-billion

  29. #529

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    However, with any certainty that the protectionism is going to be lasting, companies will produce products within the market.* So the issue will be whether the jobs created and the income received provides a sufficient multiplier effect to offset the higher prices. (Add in the positive effects of job stability, transferable skills and the psychological advantages of not fearing being ambushed by mysterious foreign comparative advantages.)

    Similar to the idea of Alberta building refining capacity at home vs just shipping raw resource somewhere else to be processed. Diversification is always at odds with maximizing returns but it isn’t at odds with reducing risk.

    The accounting circle of measurement for determining return for too long has been on individual company and department books. Conversely the free trade measure of return has been too broad looking only at macro impacts averaged over time and thus ignoring the regional, individual and short term damage it can do to individuals.

    My now very old 1970s or 80s analogy was the idea that dumping tons of rust causing salt on roads might be cheaper than lots of grading, sanding and snow removal** and would make the transportation department’s budget look good, but widen the circle of accounting to include the population and the cost vs benefit might change drastically. After including all the repairs, importation of replacement parts and entire vehicles due to premature failure (back then) and the so called “efficiency” might look quite asinine.


    * that cost of higher prices is being borne by those that can afford the appliances. (The winners under free trade.) Those that lost their livelihoods and who's communities went down the drain when their employer failed due to the imported goods, may now be renters and couch surfers using laundromats.


    ** and cost of road with boulevards to avoid moving snow from place to place
    Last edited by KC; 28-04-2019 at 01:22 PM.

  30. #530

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    Golly, Trudeau is as amazing as Trump.

    Love the challenge this must place in the minds of the Trump fans.


    May 10, 2019

    Canada’s labour market posts largest monthly jobs gain since 1976

    By Andy Blatchford The Canadian Press


    Canada’s labour market delivered a surprise Friday with its biggest one-month employment surge since 1976, when the government started collecting comparable data.


    The country added 106,500 net jobs in April, the bulk of which were full time,
    Statistics Canada said in its latest labour force survey. The unexpected increase helped drop the unemployment rate to 5.7 per cent last month, down from 5.8 per cent in March.

    The labour market has seen strong numbers since mid-2016 and has remained a bright spot for an economy that has struggled in other areas. Economic growth, for instance, almost stalled over the winter.“


    Economists had expected a gain of 10,000 jobs for the month


    The job gains were spread across many industries, with both the services and factory sectors seeing employment increases. ..”


    “By region, Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and Prince Edward Island all saw net job gains last month. ...”



    https://globalnews.ca/news/5262169/c...-april-record/


    Last edited by KC; 10-05-2019 at 08:59 AM.

  31. #531

    Default

    ^ But Trudeau inherited such a economic mess from Obama...

    Wait a second...
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  32. #532

  33. #533

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    So much winning!

    If I were China, I'd cancel all outstanding orders from Boeing. Boing is hurting right now because of the 737 MAX debacle. Kick them while they're down and get maximum bang for your buck.

    Stocks are plunging deep into the red on China push-back — ‘This just got messier and more expensive’

    China’s finance ministry said on Monday it planned to impose tariffs ranging from 5% to 25% on 5,140 U.S. products on a target list worth about $60 billion from June 1, striking back after the United States raised duties last week.


    Bank of America Merrill analysts said the new tariffs posed a downside risk of between 1% and 3% for S&P 500 company earnings in 2019.


    Tariff-sensitive Boeing Co declined 4.8% and Caterpillar Inc fell 5.4%, while the Philadelphia Chip index was down 4.9%, adding to a 6% decline last week.


    At 13:03 ET the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 703.24 points, or 2.71 per cent, at 25,239.13, the S&P 500 was down 78.43 points, or 2.72 per cent, at 2,802.97 and the Nasdaq Composite was down 277.33 points, or 3.50 per cent, at 7,639.61.


    Ten of the 11 major S&P sectors were lower, with technology , industrial and material stocks posting losses of more than 3 per cent.

    https://business.financialpost.com/i...k-with-tariffs

  34. #534

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    Trump lies or is totally clueless when he states that China is paying for the US tariffs and that China buys more from the US than the US buys from China.

    Reality, The US buys 4 times more from China and the US tariffs are paid by US importers which gets passed down to the consumer. In effect, Trump raised taxes on the public without Congressional approval. Meanwhile, US farmers are hit hard by the Trump trade war.

    Trade balance
    https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

    China retaliates on tariffs, U.S. stock markets go into a slide

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/chin...lide-1.4419520
    The president has repeatedly insisted that increased tariffs on Chinese goods don't hurt American consumers. But Kudlow, head of the president's National Economic Council, acknowledged over the weekend that U.S. consumers and businesses will bear some of the costs.

    "Both sides will pay," he told Fox News.


    In the U.S., prices of soybeans, targeted by Chinese tariffs last year, fell Monday to a 10-year low on fears of a protracted trade war.
    What is a tariff?
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is...ffs-explained/
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  35. #535

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    ^It depends - if China is forced to lower its prices as its goods are no longer competitive with other nations (like Korea), then Trump is correct, China bears the cost. I find the outrage quite funny here, for years the left wing has been demanding stronger action against countries like China (which have minimal labor / safety standards / steal IP at will / corrupt), not entering into trade agreements, the evils of Walmart being China's biggest importer, etc. Now we have a president who is actually standing up to China to try and force it to play by the rules, he is basically adopting left wing mercantile, "build it in the US", policies (which is why the stock market is crashing) and... the left aren't happy? This is tricky ground for the Democrats, they have gone very quite on this issue for good reason, Trump is following the interventionist policies the hard left (and the populist faction of the Republican party) believe in (basically, the opposite of Clinton / Obama / Bush who were globalists / neo liberal).
    Last edited by downtownone; 13-05-2019 at 04:25 PM.

  36. #536
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    Quote Originally Posted by downtownone
    ^It depends - if China is forced to lower its prices as its goods are no longer competitive with other nations (like Korea), then Trump is correct, China bears the cost.


    Supply chains don't just change overnight, and there's not necessarily going to be one for one replacements available given that China exports such a massive amount and wide variety of things. There's a reason that China is called the world's workshop. In that case, yes, US importers absolutely end up paying the tariffs, and eventually they'll pass that cost along to the consumer.

  37. #537

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    ^which will make Walmart more expensive / less competitive (which is exactly what left wingers have wanted for years, to enable unionized US manufacturing to compete). The US imports way more from China than exports to China, so while both will lose a trade war, China, whose goods can be replaced with imports from other nations or US production (which is becoming more competitive with automation replacing labor), will lose a lot more. Theoretically, because of the trade mismatch, the tariffs on imports could easily be used to subsidize the cost to farmers on lost exports.
    Last edited by downtownone; 13-05-2019 at 04:31 PM.

  38. #538

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    China may be "the world's workshop" but there are other workshops just none so large.

    If the tariffs are there for the longer term then manufacturing will shift elsewhere, if only slowly.

    China's manufacturing dominance is near it's peak and due to fade whether tariffs are applied or not. Their working-age population has begun declining and their growing middle class (and growing expectations for the working class) means that they can't be the lowest-cost producer in every sector forever.
    There can only be one.

  39. #539

    Default Why Trumps Trade War Did not Lead to a Recession


  40. #540

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by downtownone View Post
    ^which will make Walmart more expensive / less competitive (which is exactly what left wingers have wanted for years, to enable unionized US manufacturing to compete). The US imports way more from China than exports to China, so while both will lose a trade war, China, whose goods can be replaced with imports from other nations or US production (which is becoming more competitive with automation replacing labor), will lose a lot more. Theoretically, because of the trade mismatch, the tariffs on imports could easily be used to subsidize the cost to farmers on lost exports.



    So suddenly, where are you you going to get many of your goods?

    Walmart is not going to raise the wages and allow unions because of the tariffs. Instead they will get their cheap products from Bangladesh and Vietnam and cut staff at their stores in the US.

    Are iPhones suddenly going to be built in Indiana? Nope, more like India.

    Will GM build more auto plants in Illinois or just open plants in Indonesia?

    China is building more links to Europe, and they will isolate and retaliate more against the US. China won't buy US steel or other products. US farmers have their silos full of last year's soybeans that are beginning to rot.

    China has been the world's largest exporter of goods since 2009. Official estimates suggest Chinese exports amounted to $2.097 trillion in 2017. Since 2013, China has also become the largest trading nation in the world.

    Trump has no idea how to win a trade war or even comprehend its effects on the general public who are paying more for their goods
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  41. #541

    Default

    ^so if its all going to be replaced, why should Americans be upset? Word is that a deal was very close, and then China backed out because of a key US demand - an independent mechanism to enforce compliance. We all know what China does, they say one thing, then do another. Trump has called them on it, basically taken a leaf out of what Bernie Sanders has been saying by trying to put some steel in the trade deal.

    Are iPhones suddenly going to be built in Indiana? Nope, more like India.

    Apple has been moving production of more components to US (60 billion), due to three things:

    1. Robotics technology reducing the importance of labor
    2. Tax legislation which has created an incentive to Apple to repatriate billions to the US
    3. The risks of tariffs on imported goods

    http://fortune.com/2019/01/28/apple-...uring-in-2018/

    Apple said it spent $60 billion across 9,000 American component suppliers and companies in 2018, representing an increase of more than 10% from 2017.
    On Monday, the tech giant detailed some of the manufacturing jobs it has brought to the United States, specifically jobs its brought to the component manufacturer, Finisar. The company was awarded a $390 million contract around a year ago to expand production of one part of Apple’s TrueDepth camera, which was introduced with the iPhone X.

    The manufacturer’s factory in Texas makes vertical-cavity-surface-emitting lasers, often referred to as VCSELs for Apple. The wafers are “as thin as a human hair and contain hundreds of layers measuring only a few atoms in thickness.” Making them requires not only an advanced and precise manufacturing operation but also skilled technicians that have received specialized training.
    They are even working on their own screen technology (don't want to be dependent on LG and Samsung).
    Last edited by downtownone; 13-05-2019 at 05:23 PM.

  42. #542

    Default

    Who says that the cost of cheap plastic stuff is even a concern?

    This seems to me to be far more about slowing china and reducing American reliance on a rival than it is about anything else. Split all that manufacturing between a half-dozen smaller nations and a belligerent world-power china can't deal a crippling blow by cutting off the supply of widgets, and as a bonus they have less resources to put towards becoming a true military rival.
    There can only be one.

  43. #543

    Default

    Trade wars can be good in as much as they expose dependence on another country and the leverage that other country is willing to exert.

  44. #544

    Default

    Trump Urges Americans to Boycott Chinese Goods and Just Buy Things at Walmart
    By Andy Borowitz

    WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—Asking for their solidarity in his trade war with China, Donald Trump is urging Americans to boycott Chinese goods and “just buy things at Walmart.”

    Trump made his request via Twitter, where he told his fellow-citizens that it was their “patriotic duty” to punish China by buying as many goods at Walmart as possible.

    “If you go to a great american store like Walmart, you’ll find lots of cheap sportswear, shoes, and other items for you and your family to enjoy,” he tweeted. “What better way to show China that we don’t need their dumb stuff!”

    Shortly after Trump sent those marching orders to his countrymen, the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, offered a muted response. “I’m beginning to see how he lost a billion dollars,” Xi said.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  45. #545

    Default

    Trump’s calculations seems be: if a trade deal happens, it benefits US economy and also his legacy and prospects of reelection. If it does not happen, the uncertainty of how long and how wide his tariffs affect global corporations will induce them to bring their manufacturing back to US. That would create a short term pain for consumers, but ultimately a long term gain to the economy.

    I think he is mistaken on both sides of the equation.

    A deal will allow China to continue to grow and pursue its strategic interests, such as through the one belt, one road trade policies. With Trump’s methods of undermining the post-war rules-based global system which in fact was developed by US, countries around the world have already started hedging their reliance. Europe is green lighting Russian gas pipeline and China’s Huawei. Italy joined the one belt one road initiative etc.

    If no trade deal is reached, companies will not abandon China because the center of gravity of global growth and consumption has been shifting from US baby boomers to China’s emerging middle class. That’s were the profit and growth is going to be, and capitalism means companies put shareholder interests ahead of political loyalty. Last year General Motors sold 3.6 million cars in China compared to 3 million in US. We are moving from globalization of manufacturing to globalization of consumerism. The cost of the past cycle, the globalization of manufacturing, was paid by the US blue collar workers. The gains went to US consumers and low skilled labor in China. In the next cycle, globalization of consumerism, the pain still is on the shoulder of US blue collar workers. Research and design will be done in US but manufacturing will be close to the target market. Therefore, the gains will go to Chinese consumers and US capital owners and high-skilled labor force.

  46. #546

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlander II View Post
    Who says that the cost of cheap plastic stuff is even a concern?

    This seems to me to be far more about slowing china and reducing American reliance on a rival than it is about anything else. Split all that manufacturing between a half-dozen smaller nations and a belligerent world-power china can't deal a crippling blow by cutting off the supply of widgets, and as a bonus they have less resources to put towards becoming a true military rival.
    a belligerent world-power
    The US is the most belligerent world-power on the face of the Earth and by far the largest militarily. The US spends more than the next 12 nations COMBINED. The US has over 800 military bases overseas. No other country even comes close.

    But yeah, China is the one being belligerent.

  47. #547

    Default

    Spending does not correlate with belligerence.

    Neither is belligerence synonymous with malice or vice.

    China looks out for itself, just like the USA does, and they won't be shy to fight for their interests when they believe they can win. And unlike the USA they are unencumbered by any remnant of a free press or a vocal opposition.
    There can only be one.

  48. #548

    Default

    It's a lot easier to be belligerent when you've got a stick that's bigger than the next 12 sticks. I don't recall China being involved in as many was in recent time as the US has been. Iraq ring any bells? Based the whole thing on lies. Hundreds of thousands dead.

    Or overthrowing governments in order to install one more to their liking. Agusto Pinochet sure was an improvement, wasn't he? Or overthrowing the government of Iran in 1953 in order to prevent the nationalization of the oil companies.

    Propping up Saddam until he got a little too loose on the leash for their liking. The US even provided chemical weapons and the location of Iranian troops to use them on during the Iran-Iraq war, which the US puppet started.

  49. #549

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by kkozoriz View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Highlander II View Post
    Who says that the cost of cheap plastic stuff is even a concern?

    This seems to me to be far more about slowing china and reducing American reliance on a rival than it is about anything else. Split all that manufacturing between a half-dozen smaller nations and a belligerent world-power china can't deal a crippling blow by cutting off the supply of widgets, and as a bonus they have less resources to put towards becoming a true military rival.
    a belligerent world-power
    The US is the most belligerent world-power on the face of the Earth and by far the largest militarily. The US spends more than the next 12 nations COMBINED. The US has over 800 military bases overseas. No other country even comes close.

    But yeah, China is the one being belligerent.
    Actually the US spends more than the next 8 nations combined, not 12.
    ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures#/media/File:Military_Expenditures_2018_SIPRI.png

    The US spends lots partly because they don't get common items made in China from their local Walmart... FCOL

    Over the past few months alone, the Defense Department has had to explain why it’s been paying $14,000 for individual 3-D printed toilet seat lids and purchasing cups for $1,280 each. These are just the latest examples on a long list of unacceptable purchases made by the department, including $436 for hammers in the 1980s, and $117 soap dish covers and $999 pliers in the 1990s.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/19/o...ing-waste.html

    The rate of pay makes a huge difference in the amount a country spends on their military. North Korea has the largest total amount of personnel but pay a pittance.

    North Korea 7,039,000
    Vietnam 5,522,000
    United States 5,087,354
    India India 5,077,050
    Taiwan 4,958,450
    South Korea 4,599,000
    Iran 4,513,000
    China 4,045,000
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tary_personnel
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  50. #550

    Default

    Suckers!

    AT&T promised 7,000 new jobs to get tax break—it cut 23,000 jobs instead
    AT&T also cut capital spending despite promising $1 billion capital boost.

    AT&T's total employment was 254,000 as of December 31, 2017 and rose to 262,290 by March 31, 2019. But AT&T's overall workforce increased only because of its acquisition of Time Warner Inc. and two smaller companies, which together added 31,618 employees during 2018, according to an AT&T proxy statement cited in the CWA report.


    Excluding employees gained via mergers, AT&T's workforce dropped from 254,000 to 230,672, a cut of 23,328 jobs, the CWA report points out. These numbers are for AT&T's global workforce, but the vast majority of its employees are in the US. AT&T reported having 44,892 non-US employees as of October 1, 2018.


    The most recent layoffs affected 368 union technicians in California, the CWA said last week.

    https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...-jobs-instead/


  51. #551

    Default

    “Trump's tariffs equivalent to one of the largest tax hikes in decades”


    Trump’s tariffs are somewhat of a voluntary tax like the GST and the carbon tax. A tax on spending. Don’t spend and don’t pay. However there is still “only one taxpayer” in the end.


    Trump's tariffs equivalent to one of the largest tax hikes in decades

    Excerpts:

    “The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates all the tariffs enacted by the president, including the latest increase from 10% to 25% on $200 billion on Chinese goods, will raise $72 billion in revenue, equal to 0.34% of U.S. gross domestic product. Revenue raised in the first year of the 1993 budget and reconciliation act equaled 0.36% of GDP.”

    “ “It’s certainly not the largest tax increase in history but it does rank among some of the bigger tax proposals over the last 20 years that have raised revenues,″ said Kyle Pomerleau, chief economist with the Tax Foundation.”


    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/16/trum...n-decades.html
    Last edited by KC; 16-05-2019 at 08:52 AM.

  52. #552

    Default

    From that well known lefty rag, Fortune.

    S&P 500 Has Performed 35% Worse Under Trump Than Under Obama

    When it comes to talking himself up, Trump in particular has compared himself to Barack Obama. So, how do the two presidents measure up in terms of growth in major indexes, measured between their inauguration and May 31 of their third year in office?


    The short answer is that Trump has quite a way to go. Under Obama, the S&P 500 grew by 56.4%. The Dow Jones Industrials Average was up 50.6% and the Nasdaq, 92.9%.


    The numbers under Trump were 21.4% for the S&P 500, 25.2% for the Dow, and 34.2% for Nasdaq.



    http://fortune.com/2019/06/03/stock-...-obama-sp-500/

  53. #553

    Default

    So much winning.

    Manufacturing falls to lowest level of Trump presidency — because of the president’s tariffs

    Manufacturing in the United States fell to its lowest level since President Donald Trump took office, according to two industry analyses.


    The U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to its lowest level in April since October 2016, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM survey also found that its factory employment index had fallen by 11 percent since October 2016 and factory output fell to its lowest point since August 2016, Reuters reported. A separate survey by IHS Markit also found that May was the “toughest month in nearly 10 years” for American manufacturers, IHS economist Chris Williamson told Bloomberg News, adding that the reduced production will also be a “further drag on GDP.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/06/man...dents-tariffs/

  54. #554

    Default

    So much winning

    Trump: I'm Donald Trump, and I'm running for president. Our country is in deep trouble because let's face it: politics are all talk and no action. My opponents have no experience in creating jobs or making deals. The fact is, I'm going to make the greatest trade deals we've ever made in our country. And I'm going to bring jobs and money back to the United States. I'll take care of our veterans and make our military so strong that nobody will ever mess with us. I'll secure our borders, and yes, we will have a wall. You can't have a country without borders. Obamacare is a total disaster. It will be repealed and replaced with something much better. If the people of Iowa vote for me, you'll never be disappointed. I don't disappoint people, I produce. Together, we're going to Make America Great Again. I'm Donald Trump, candidate for president, and I approve this message.
    2-1/2 years into his presidency

    Number of trade deals ratified passed into law: 0
    2,000 Miles of wall promised by Trump: Actual amount built 0 (only 39.8 miles of steel fence — have been installed along the southern border since January 2017, 1.7 miles per month.
    Trump Healthcare Plan: 0
    Trump's 2019 Military spending: $5 Billion LESS than in Obama's 2010 budget

    Trump all talk and no action.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

  55. #555

    Default

    Are Trump's tariffs hurting the US economy?

    U.S. creates just 75,000 jobs in May and wage growth slows in warning sign for economy
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...omy-2019-06-07
    The meager gains in May fell far short of the 185,000 MarketWatch forecast

    Meanwhile, job growth is strong in Canada, 3 times the rate of the US

    Canada adds 27,700 jobs in May, unemployment rate falls to record low
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/cana...-low-1.4456162
    Economists on average had expected the addition of 8,000 jobs for the month
    The unemployment rate fell to 5.4 per cent compared with 5.7 per cent in April

    The increase in jobs was made up entirely of full-time employment as there was no change in the number of part-time jobs.


    The overall gains were driven by an increase of 61,500 in the number of self-employed workers, while the number employees fell by 33,800 including a drop in 13,100 public sector employees and 20,700 private sector employees. The goods-producing sector of the economy added 4,900 jobs, while the services sector added 22,800. The health care and social assistance industry added 20,400 jobs in the month, while professional, scientific and technical services increased by 17,200. Business, building and support services lost 19,400 jobs and employment in accommodation and food services fell 12,000.


    Compared with May 2018, the Canadian economy added 453,100 jobs including 299,000 full-time positions and 154,100 part-time jobs.
    Advocating a better Edmonton through effective, efficient and economical transit.

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