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Thread: December 31, 2018 WTI Crude Oil Price Predictions

  1. #1
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    Default December 31, 2018 WTI Crude Oil Price Predictions

    Happy New Year to all. Congratulations to 2017 winner Sonic Death Monkey whose $60 prediction was only 42 cents below the WTI closing price last Friday.

    Starting a new thread for 2018. Rules are the same as last year. Guess the price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil quoted in US dollars at the end of the last trading day of 2018 which is Monday, December 31.

    To be counted, a specific price is needed, not a price range, and be posted on this thread before March 31.

    To ensure a level playing field, posters who guess early on can revise their guess (if they want) until the end of March.

    My guess for the end of December 2018 closing price is $65.50 US per barrel.

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    $70
    “You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012

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    Probably insane but sticking with $65.

    ---
    "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."

    "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong"

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    ok already... i was probably overly optimistic the last few years but it's a reflection of what i do as you can't do it without being optimistic.

    having said that, i'll scale my expectations back 10% and forecast a still optimistic $70.65 for this year's poll.
    "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

  5. #5

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    I read an article the other day that said oil prices are going to 'surge' this year. 'Surge' was the word they used. Who's gonna start another 2018 poll.
    Gone............................and very quickly forgotten may I add.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gemini View Post
    I read an article the other day that said oil prices are going to 'surge' this year. 'Surge' was the word they used. Who's gonna start another 2018 poll.
    i'm pretty sure this thread is it...
    "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

  7. #7

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    ^Ha ha, had to look twice, thanks Ken.
    Gone............................and very quickly forgotten may I add.

  8. #8

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    Not to good myself at predictions except to say it's gonna get dark tonight. As for oil prices I'll take a guess for the end of this year, $87 a barrel.
    Gone............................and very quickly forgotten may I add.

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    My guess on oil prices, $66 per barrel.
    "Talk minus action equals zero." - Joe Keithley, D. O. A.

  10. #10

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    I’ll guess $38.

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    $54.40 - that has a good sound to it.
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    ^They said it was gonna surge upward in 2018 not downward. Your gonna have to change your prediction.
    Gone............................and very quickly forgotten may I add.

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    Er, nope, Gem. I took a WAG last time around and ended up in the ballpark. Same logic applies this time, too. It's just a game after all.
    Nisi Dominus Frustra

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    I just hope WCS hits $50

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    I am going to go out on a limb. $85:00
    “Canada is the only country in the world that knows how to live without an identity,”-Marshall McLuhan

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    The price has reached my goal ($66.00 US) already.
    "Talk minus action equals zero." - Joe Keithley, D. O. A.

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  19. #19

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    During the 2014/15 economic drop, i stated that if oil was between 55 - 65 that would be a reasonable standard for recovery. This is good. The US and China's delima could rise this considerably in the short future.
    " The strength of a man is in the stride he walks."

  20. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by ctzn-Ed View Post
    During the 2014/15 economic drop, i stated that if oil was between 55 - 65 that would be a reasonable standard for recovery. This is good. The US and China's delima could rise this considerably in the short future.
    The elephant in the room for Alberta though is the lack of capital investment now vs a decade ago. Prices and royalties were only half the story - if that. Massive plant build expenditures injected huge amounts into the economy in a way that had great multiplier effects. The cash flows for operational profits and royalty payments to government tend towards just sustaining activities. Nothing dynamic or synergistic occurs there. It’s the difference between entrepreneurial spending and retired workforce spending. The difference between the dynamism of silicon valley and the sleepiness of Florida snowbird havens.

    Moreover, capital investment was downright huge. Thank shake drilling for killing that goose laying a golden egg for ‘growing’ Alberta. Along with all the negative downsides like pipeline capacity shortfalls and depressed bitumen pricing that it brought with it.
    Last edited by KC; 04-05-2018 at 05:02 PM.

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    ^Much of the new capital investment in Alberta right now is being directed to our own shale oil reserves not to the oil sands.

    Canada, by contrast, offers many of the same advantages that allowed oil firms to launch the shale revolution in the United States: numerous private energy firms with appetite for risk; deep capital markets; infrastructure to transport oil; low population in regions that contain shale reserves; and plentiful water to pump into shale wells.

    Together, the Duvernay and Montney formations in Canada hold marketable resources estimated at 500 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 20 billion barrels of natural gas liquids and 4.5 billion barrels of oil, according to the National Energy Board, a Canadian regulator.

    “The Montney is thought to have about half the recoverable resources of the whole oil sands region, so it’s formidable,” Marty Proctor, chief executive of Calgary-based Seven Generations Energy, told Reuters in an interview.
    https://ca.reuters.com/article/topNe...BN1FI0G7-OCATP

  22. #22

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    Does anyone have good information available on the amounts of capital investment over the years going into either or both areas?

    According to this (see below) 2016 was around $11 billion which is more like the levels seen around 2000-2002. The bubble year’s doubled or near tripled that level of annual investment. Those years triggered a big expansion of all kinds of things like real estate as well as infrastructure which now has to been sustained and maintained. Plus we’re still playing catch up on schools etc to serve the increased needs partially triggered by changes created by the bubble years.





    There is historical data here going back further than shown in graph above

    Workbook: ~Capital Expenditure Figure 1.10 Alberta conventional oil and gas and oil sands capital expenditure

    https://www2.aer.ca/t/Production/vie...showVizHome=no
    Last edited by KC; 04-05-2018 at 07:12 PM.

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    What I do know for a fact is that once the Shell LNG goes in Kitimat....25 BILLION worth of plants have to be built in the Montney - where I've been forever. Those plants are needed to feed that LNG - so good news for Albertans, because not enough BC workers want to work anymore...lol. The last projects I was on here - only 1/3 of the workers came from BC - the area between Dawson and John.....

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    Nevermind the capital cost of 40 BILLION plus to build the LNG plant and associated pipelines - than how many 10,000's of holes will need to be drillled and fracked as well......

  25. #25

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    It is not the case of BC folks not wanting to work, but the type of jobs provided by such projects require specialty trained workers; and most of these trained workers come from Alberta. That said, workers right across the country will bennifit.
    Last edited by ctzn-Ed; 05-05-2018 at 07:29 PM.
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    A useful article identifying some of the factors currently driving higher oil prices:

    Plunging Venezuelan crude production; sanctions disrupting Iranian oil exports; Saudi Arabia pushing for even higher prices; North Korea peace talks -- the coming weeks bring an abundance of risks for the oil market.

    The geopolitical premium has already helped lift crude prices to a three-year high. There are several dates coming up which could have a significant impact on global oil supply and demand, or at the very least elevate the risk of a market-moving presidential tweet.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ks-proliferate

  28. #28

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    What’s changed with Iranian oil?

  29. #29

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    Nothing has yet changed with Iranian oil and it seems that the impact of reinstating sanctions would be minimal supply reductions. Other risks though come into play though as the Iranians will likely respond to the US reneging on the deal.


    Here’s what sanctions on Iran could do to global oil supply and prices - MarketWatch

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...ces-2018-05-04


    I’d guess that the high prices will be met with US drillers ramping up quickly.

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    Back below 70.00.

  31. #31

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    Wonder how this will go:
    'Biggest' change in oil market history: Crude prices set to soar ahead of shipping revolution

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/24/oil-...evolution.html
    I am in no way entitled to your opinion...

  32. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spudly View Post
    Wonder how this will go:
    'Biggest' change in oil market history: Crude prices set to soar ahead of shipping revolution

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/24/oil-...evolution.html
    Beyond the US benefitting, it seems too hard to predict the impact on overall pricing.

    An Oil Refining Capacity Wave Is Coming - Bloomberg
    Mar. 6, 2018
    Excerpt:
    “U.S. refiners, meanwhile, are sitting relatively pretty, especially on the Gulf Coast. They have access to both surging light-tight oil production, which will be in demand as low-sulfur requirements tighten in shipping at the end of the decade, as well as captive (and cheaper) Canadian heavy barrels. They also enjoy low energy costs courtesy of shale gas.
    Looks like the Americans are a force to be reckoned with on that front too.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...wave-is-coming

  33. #33

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    A long read. Gets interesting in places.

    What are the implications of an increase in Saudi crude oil production capacity?

    Opinion: Saudi Arabia finds itself in an energy demand quandary
    By Jim Krane arabianbusiness
    Thu 28 Sep 2017

    “Low prices might also enhance oil dependence among emerging economies, leading states into path-dependent investment in oil-intensive transportation systems and settlement patterns that lock in long-term demand. ...”


    “This understanding ought to prompt some holders of large reserves to try to monetize those resources on an accelerated pace, lest they lose value or become stranded. Recent statements and actions within the Saudi oil sector suggest that these threats are being taken seriously...”


    http://www.arabianbusiness.com/inter...ction-capacity
    Last edited by KC; 25-05-2018 at 09:47 AM.

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    Back above 70.00 right now, according to the Globe and Mail.

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    WTI crude oil has hit $75 for the first time since 2014
    “You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    I’ll guess $38.
    lol come on man...

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    Quote Originally Posted by overoceans View Post
    Back above 70.00 right now, according to the Globe and Mail.
    Wonder how Trump's policy of demanding lower oil prices while simultaneously creating chaos with Iran is working out.

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    Answer: Not well
    They're going to park their car over there. You're going to park your car over here. Get it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gord Lacey View Post
    Answer: Not well
    If we're being honest, though, I'd imagine Joe Ceci is not entirely unhappy about it.

  40. #40

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    WCS still carries roughly a $27 discount compared to WTI.

    Cmon let's get those pipelines in...

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