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Thread: What are we going to do when oil prices collapse?

  1. #1001
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    ^ Clickbait. The opinion of 1 investment house.
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  2. #1002

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    ^ Clickbait. The opinion of 1 investment house.
    Nope. The forecasts could turn out to be totally useless but the underlying issues are real. US shale output is ramping up. Other production will be coming on line. I haven’t heard anything about depletion.


    IEA Predicts Nightmare Scenario For OPEC | OilPrice.com

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...-For-OPEC.html



    Macquarie: OPEC Deal To Collapse In 2018
    By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jun 22, 2017, 11:00 AM CDT
    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi...e-In-2018.html



    Goldman: Oil Prices To Fall Below $40 If Shale Doesn’t Slow
    By Nick Cunningham - Jul 11, 2017, 6:00 PM CDT
    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Pric...esnt-Slow.html


    Crude Oil Price Forecast 2018: Rally likely to continue
    By Omkar Godbole | December 22, 2017 10:34 GMT
    Fundamentals - Focus on Shale-OPEC showdown

    US Shale output: could derail OPEC's efforts to rebalance the oil market. ...

    Hedging activity indicates shale explorers are gearing up for a surge in output in 2018: ...

    https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cr...e-201712221034
    Last edited by KC; 12-03-2018 at 11:55 PM.

  3. #1003

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    What Record Oil Production In The Permian Basin Looks Like

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier.../#57a24e9f4497
    I am in no way entitled to your opinion...

  4. #1004
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    Interesting article. Looks like Canada is doomed to economic ruin.
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  5. #1005

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    Interesting article. Looks like Canada is doomed to economic ruin.
    Yeah probably.

  6. #1006
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    ^ Considering the US has enough oil and gas to last a long time before it even needs to tap into any geo thermal reserves.

    The only thing in our favour is that maybe we can "outsmart them again."
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  7. #1007

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    ^ Considering the US has enough oil and gas to last a long time before it even needs to tap into any geo thermal reserves.

    The only thing in our favour is that maybe we can "outsmart them again."
    They may face some global pushback from fracing:

    World May Hit 2 Degrees of Warming in 10-15 Years Thanks to Fracking, Says Cornell Scientist | DeSmogBlog
    https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/04/1...rush-ingraffea

  8. #1008
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    No time to go over the link, later. We mostly hear about fracking associated with the US. I wonder how many other country's are fracking?
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  9. #1009

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    Being discussed on CBC radio right now.

    Canadian oilsands player calls for government to mandate production cuts


    'This is an extraordinary situation brought on by extraordinary circumstances,' Cenovus Energy says
    Tony Seskus - CBC News
    November 13, 2018
    Alex Pourbaix is the president and CEO of Cenovus. The company is calling on the Alberta government to implement 'temporary' production cuts across the oil sector.


    “...
    "Government has a duty to protect the value of its oil resources on behalf of Albertans."

    Peters & Co., an energy-focused investment bank, recently estimated that if the price gap remains at around $40 a barrel for 2019, it would cost the Alberta government about $5 billion in oilsands royalties for the year. ... “

    “Last month, Premier Rachel Notley called on the federal government to buy more rail cars to transport Alberta oil.

    "The oil price differential right now is absurd, and exactly why Premier Rachel Notley is fighting to build new pipelines and pushing Ottawa to step up and help fix the backlog in rail shipments," said Mike McKinnon, spokesman for the province's minister of energy, said in an email statement.

    ...”




    https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cen...cuts-1.4903385




    Varcoe: Cenovus CEO says crude oversupply causing fire-sale prices, creating 'massive destruction of value'
    BY CHRIS VARCOE, CALGARY HERALD
    ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: NOV 1, 2018

    ““The industry right now has a production problem,” Pourbaix said on a conference call Wednesday.

    “We are going to do our part, but we are not going to carry the industry on our back. I think this is something that has to be dealt with on an industry-wide basis.”

    Cenovus, which pumped out more than 376,000 barrels of oil per day during the third quarter, is one of many energy companies being pummelled by weak prices for oil produced in Alberta.”

    https://calgaryherald.com/business/e...ction-of-value
    .
    Last edited by KC; 14-11-2018 at 01:17 PM.

  10. #1010

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    Suncor, Husky reject Cenovus’ call for government-imposed production cuts | Fort McMurray Today

    “Suncor spokeswoman Sneh Seetal says the company has no exposure to the “differential” between Western Canadian Select bitumen-blend crude and New York-traded West Texas Intermediate and therefore shouldn’t have to reduce its production.

    She says the company’s position is that the market should operate freely and that Suncor should be allowed to benefit from the refineries and upgraders it has built and the pipeline space it has contracted that insulate it from local price discounts.

    Husky spokeswoman Kim Guttormson says her company also believes in a “market-based solution,” noting that intervention entails economic and trade risk for Canada.

    In a report, analyst Phil Skolnick of Eight Capital says the temporary cuts suggested by Cenovus and supported by some other producers of bitumen would work to clear clogged storage and quickly reduce price discounts on Alberta oil to the benefit of the province. “...

    https://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/ne...roduction-cuts

  11. #1011
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    I can appreciate the Premier's position here. Let the free market decide. At the same time the oversupply isn't helping our economy. The sky isn't falling however: Oil prices are on the rise again.
    Mom said I should not talk to cretins!

  12. #1012

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    The companies rolled the dice and lost. And not all of them are in the same boat. I thought that "the market" was self-correcting.

    Time to pull back from selling the lowest quality product and start doing more here. Too much extraction. Too little upgrading. Too little refining.

  13. #1013

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    I can appreciate the Premier's position here. Let the free market decide. At the same time the oversupply isn't helping our economy. The sky isn't falling however: Oil prices are on the rise again.
    “Free” market is right.

    As owners of the oil being sold I’d say that the government as representatives of our interests is a player in that free market.

    (Moreover, as a friend had complained for decades. Why doesn’t Alberta find ways to hedge its exposure to smooth out its asset sales?)

  14. #1014
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    This was on Global the other night and hits home to why Alberta even Canada is struggling with pipelines and getting oil out to global markets.

    https://context.capp.ca/energy-matte...e4kMHdezd81M5w
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  15. #1015

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    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    This was on Global the other night and hits home to why Alberta even Canada is struggling with pipelines and getting oil out to global markets.

    https://context.capp.ca/energy-matte...e4kMHdezd81M5w
    Yeah saw that. Everyone should watch that as it raises some interesting issues.

  16. #1016

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    Nothing new but raising awareness.


    Slumping Alberta oil prices could have 'dire' impact on rest of Canada, warns economist | CBC Radio


    173 comments
    Listen19:49
    Read Story Transcript

    A Calgary-based economist says Alberta's slump in oil prices is teetering on becoming a national crisis.

    "This is the largest industry in the land," said Peter Tertzakian, executive director of ARC Energy Research Institute.

    He told The Current's guest host Laura Lynch that dramatic discounts on Alberta oil have a ripple effect on the Canadian economy.

    "It significantly affects top-line revenue, then it affects income and the taxes you get from that, the royalties, and then spreads out to all the peripheral services, including all the way from a helicopter pilot to steel manufacturing in the eastern provinces that support this industry," Tertzakian said. ...




    https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/...mist-1.4917642




  17. #1017

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by envaneo View Post
    Interesting article. Looks like Canada is doomed to economic ruin.
    Yeah probably.


    ‘Very, very scary’: This mammoth new shale drilling method is about to supersize the future of fracking | Financial Post

    Feb 2018

    “You add all the numbers up and what you start to come up with is very, very scary,” Ozkan said in a telephone interview. “The production potential is only as high as the demand will allow it to go.”

    https://business.financialpost.com/c...re-for-shale-1
    Last edited by KC; 02-12-2018 at 10:01 AM.

  18. #1018

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    “I have called on Alberta oil producers “ Arrogant? He’s not the Premier, what right does he have to call on oil producers to do anything?

    Though on second thought, I guess he could call on them to voluntarily increase employment, act more fiscally and provincially responsible and clean up oil wells, etc. and I wouldn’t have thought that he was trying to usurp power.

    Jason Kenney: It’s time to mandate emergency cuts to oil production | Edmonton Journal

    “I have called on Alberta oil producers to voluntarily reduce production to deal with this crisis. Many have acted, cutting production by some 200,000 barrels per day. But a small number of companies are making big profits by shipping super-cheap Alberta oil to U.S. refineries, and are not willing to follow suit.”

    https://edmontonjournal.com/opinion/...oil-production

    So he’s anti-free trade too.

    I’m ok with that.

  19. #1019

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    Actually, the companies that don't want the cuts are the ones with the upgraders and refineries in Alberta. And why is he opposed to shipping super cheap Alberta oil to US refineries when he supported Keystone XL & Northern Gateway

  20. #1020

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    Quote Originally Posted by kkozoriz View Post
    Actually, the companies that don't want the cuts are the ones with the upgraders and refineries in Alberta. And why is he opposed to shipping super cheap Alberta oil to US refineries when he supported Keystone XL & Northern Gateway
    And have pipeline access locked up.

  21. #1021
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    Northern gateway, biggest mistake JT made was to cancel that. He's such a knobhead

  22. #1022
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    Quote Originally Posted by H.L. View Post
    Northern gateway, biggest mistake JT made was to cancel that. He's such a knobhead
    not that northern gateway didn't have it's own problems... it would have made a lot more sense if it had terminated at prince rupert instead of kitimat.

    not only is it a "better" port in many respects, it's already connected to the rest of the country by existing railroad rights of way that could have supported a pipeline as well and now can't even be used for oil by rail.

    and anyone that doesn't think the liberal anti-oil/anti-alberta agenda is that deep and that sophisticated even though the boy wonder is neither of those things hasn't been paying attention for the past 5 decades.
    "If you did not want much, there was plenty." Harper Lee

  23. #1023

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    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by H.L. View Post
    Northern gateway, biggest mistake JT made was to cancel that. He's such a knobhead
    not that northern gateway didn't have it's own problems... it would have made a lot more sense if it had terminated at prince rupert instead of kitimat.

    not only is it a "better" port in many respects, it's already connected to the rest of the country by existing railroad rights of way that could have supported a pipeline as well and now can't even be used for oil by rail.

    and anyone that doesn't think the liberal anti-oil/anti-alberta agenda is that deep and that sophisticated even though the boy wonder is neither of those things hasn't been paying attention for the past 5 decades.
    The Liberals did help in the 1990s with oil sands development.

  24. #1024
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    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by H.L. View Post
    Northern gateway, biggest mistake JT made was to cancel that. He's such a knobhead
    not that northern gateway didn't have it's own problems... it would have made a lot more sense if it had terminated at prince rupert instead of kitimat.

    not only is it a "better" port in many respects, it's already connected to the rest of the country by existing railroad rights of way that could have supported a pipeline as well and now can't even be used for oil by rail.

    and anyone that doesn't think the liberal anti-oil/anti-alberta agenda is that deep and that sophisticated even though the boy wonder is neither of those things hasn't been paying attention for the past 5 decades.
    The Liberals did help in the 1990s with oil sands development.
    Its 2018, soon to be 2019..

  25. #1025

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    Quote Originally Posted by H.L. View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by KC View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by kcantor View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by H.L. View Post
    Northern gateway, biggest mistake JT made was to cancel that. He's such a knobhead
    not that northern gateway didn't have it's own problems... it would have made a lot more sense if it had terminated at prince rupert instead of kitimat.

    not only is it a "better" port in many respects, it's already connected to the rest of the country by existing railroad rights of way that could have supported a pipeline as well and now can't even be used for oil by rail.

    and anyone that doesn't think the liberal anti-oil/anti-alberta agenda is that deep and that sophisticated even though the boy wonder is neither of those things hasn't been paying attention for the past 5 decades.
    The Liberals did help in the 1990s with oil sands development.
    Its 2018, soon to be 2019..
    And have you been paying attention in the last 5 decades?

  26. #1026
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    You were going on about 1990, like its new news..lol! Sheesh, moving on

  27. #1027

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    Unfortunately it is that lack of knowledge of history among our politicians that is astounding and goes a ways to explaining why we are in the economic state we are in right now.

    In fact, I doubt our minister of Finance or the next one and likely the last one under the PCs even know what the PIP, PGRT, IORT and NGGLT were. They won’t know how extreme the various tax measures of the 1970s and 1980s were nor understand how those old policies impacted investment and production decisions in the past.
    Last edited by KC; 03-12-2018 at 01:40 AM.

  28. #1028

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    Nor will they remember Alberta rejecting the very idea of a Made in Canada price for oil and the demand that Alberta be paid the world price with no ceiling or floor on said price. Which is what we have now, the world price for a product that needs upgrading before it can be refined, hence the price differential.

    I don't remember the oil companies offering a deal to consumers when prices were high. Fuel surcharges from transportation companies. Higher prices for commodities due to higher fuel prices.

    Remember that?

  29. #1029

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    At one point gas producers demanded dereg and world prices and then a few years later gas producers demanded a made in Alberta price. (Shows how industry isn’t homogeneous but can appear hypocritical.)

    We once begged for interest rate relief too.


    However the governments have been all over the map on taxes and write offs going from maybe over 100% write offs to over 100% MTRs.
    Last edited by KC; 03-12-2018 at 06:43 AM.

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  31. #1031
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    Great article. I'm an Albertan before Canadian. Think of all the money Alberta could save in transfer payments as well if Alberta were out of confederation. As for annexation to the US? That sounds like a great idea. Texas North? lol.

    I hope Alberta separation happens in my lifetime. I'm all in.
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  32. #1032
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    It would be great. I think wed have them over a barrel. lol

  33. #1033

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    Sure! Keep in mind you'll lose Healthcare and all the goodies...

    I'm surprised we have not stopped transfer payment when Quebec refused the pipeline; as well, their oil and gas don't even come from us, so it is a double slap to us.
    " The strength of a man is in the stride he walks."

  34. #1034

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    We can't "stop" transfer payments and they are funded out of individual and corporate taxes. The province doesn't cut a quarterly cheque to the federal government.

    And the reason that Energy East was turned down was because the eastern refineries couldn't tap into it without building their own upgraders. It was a bitumen export pipeline, period. There's also the increased difficulty of cleaning up bitumen spills (See Enbridge's Kalamazoo river spill) as opposed to crude. If we had built an upgrader here and were shipping something that the eastern refineries could use and you'd see increased support for EE.

    It's the same with exporting bitumen south. There's a limited number of refineries in the US can can upgrade bitumen to something that can be refined into finished products. When one of those goes down for maintenance or due to an accident, demand falls by a significant percentage. Export something that all refineries can use and you expand your market.

  35. #1035

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    That was subtle hint...
    " The strength of a man is in the stride he walks."

  36. #1036
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    Eddy can you explain to me why an independent Alberta would not be able to have a health care system. It would likely be better than what we have now. Also what do you mean by the goodies. We could afford the same plus more. If we were exporting oil at a decent rate with the worlds second largest supply with a country of 4.2 mil we would be wealthier than Dubai. You would get all the goodies plus a guaranteed annual income into your bank account.
    Last edited by Drumbones; Yesterday at 05:08 PM.

  37. #1037
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    Also, there are land claims issues as such as Provincial, Federal and treaty land claims as well.
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